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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman
    Mesoscale Discussion 2305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Western/central KY...Western/middle TN...Northwest MS...Eastern AR...Northwest AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 714... Valid 091959Z - 092130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 714 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes and isolated severe wind/hail will continue through the afternoon, with storm coverage expected to increase with time. DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells is ongoing early this afternoon from western TN into eastern AR, with occasional rotating cells noted within a larger storm cluster across western KY. A supercell cluster currently approaching the TN/KY border produced an earlier apparent tornado in northwest TN, with another tornado recently noted just southwest of the KHPX radar. The other cells along the broken line will continue to pose a threat of all severe hazards as they move east-northeastward. These cells are ongoing along and just ahead of a composite outflow boundary/cold front that will continue to move eastward this afternoon. Deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary may encourage an increase in storm coverage and a transition to more of a mixed mode with time, though embedded supercells will likely continue to be possible through the afternoon, with all severe hazards possible. The greatest short-term tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) will likely continue to be focused from far northwest MS into western/middle TN, southern KY, and eventually extreme northwest AL, where the most favorable overlap of low-level/deep-layer shear (including 0-1 km SRH of 150-250 m2/s2 noted on regional VWPs and objective mesoanalyses) and instability (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will persist this afternoon, prior to the arrival of the front. This area is being upgraded to an Enhanced Risk (driven by 10% tornado probabilities) in the upcoming 20Z outlook. Also, downstream watch issuance will likely be needed later this afternoon, as storms approach a larger portion of middle TN into northwest AL.
  2. jaxjagman
  3. jaxjagman
    Plus the models still seem to showing a risk towards Alabama/Tn line vicinity later on IMO
  4. jaxjagman
    Not sure about that,storm mode looks like it should last until we start to lose diurnal heating ,severe should last until then at least..IMO
  5. jaxjagman
    This afternoons runs show the system coming through Mid Tn faster than showed yesterday.HRRR seems to be a outlier with SBCapes ranging upwards of 1.5K all the way to Nashville.Who know if the NAM is right there should be a decent half way decent tornado threat in Southern TN,North Alabama into the early evening.See what the next runs show.
  6. jaxjagman
    I think we are gonna warm up right before Christmas,then turn on the cooler side as we get into Christmas.The Euro seems to want to keep the MJO signal stuck into the WP until mid Dec,GEFS,GEPS and CFS look more progessive.CFS has been showing it into Africa the last few day as we head into Jan
  7. jaxjagman
    Up and down..lol..Really agree with you its not very cold in Canada,so even with troughs in the east it dont look very cold ATM unless something changes then in the long range the jet rips through East Asia by the ensembles ensembles so with the +PNA we'll just be dealing with crappie AO and possibly weak+ NAO.
  8. jaxjagman
    Mid South looks better this afternoon during this time,still to early to believe the GFS.Plenty of shear to work with,loss of diurnal heating the GFS shows instability drops off fast but still several days away
  9. jaxjagman
    That's what i have https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts
  10. jaxjagman
    that would definite be ice
  11. jaxjagman
    yeah that screams ice
  12. jaxjagman
    Maybe its, right,just looks odd,we arent use to seeing that strong of HP this early
  13. jaxjagman
    Think i'd toss this afternoons Euro run
  14. jaxjagman
    Still disappointed with Auburn vs Alabama,ill have a sour taste in my mouth for a long time.It went from Auburn Kick-6 to Alabama 4th and 31..arrrrggggg
  15. jaxjagman
    Thats a decent trough going through East Asia Wednesday,you higher elevation people seemingly this time of year could get winter around the 14th give or take IMO.probably just cool rain for us
  16. jaxjagman
    https://frontierweather.dtn.com/climateandtools.html https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/
  17. jaxjagman
    Yeah,just a waiting game it seems.It still has to get out of the Maritime and its gonna be there for the next several days
  18. jaxjagman
    Not a very exciting look towards Christmas if you want cold.Trough in Mongolia and ridge in South East Asia.Both the GEFS and EPS show this.This POSSIBLY should be a -PNA and ridge in the east and possibly SER,right now
  19. jaxjagman
    MJO still looks decent today as we head towards winter.Euro today shows it climbing out of the COD into the WP mid Dec.CFS seems to be showing it possibly into Africa into week2 of Jan,but the CFS surely can change between now and then.Long range as we head past mid Dec has ridge in the east,EPS and GEFS both show this so it looks on QUE..IMHO ATM
  20. jaxjagman
    Hopefully you get some moisture with it if it happens and not dry and low humidity,that wouldnt be good
  21. jaxjagman
    Still hoping for a cold Christmas,dont feel like Christmas when its in the 60's+.CFS shows the MJO signal getting stronger into the WP,some of the Euro ensembles are showing something similar but still to much spread ATM to really believe
  22. jaxjagman
    Wouldnt surprise me if the models get even colder post Thanksgiving,this was yesterday in East Asia,maybe we can get more moisture with a stronger CF that kicks in with a stronger STJ than the models are showing now for some thunderstorms,of course we need rain with thunderstorms or that could promote more wild fires..lol.Man we need some rain
  23. jaxjagman
    Really like to see the CFS right,this is a cold signal for us as we head towards Christmas into Jan,to me right now we are gonna get maybe BN around Thanksgiving and a potential warm up as we head into Dec
  24. jaxjagman
    Meh,Euro long range even backs up what the CFS is showing,I'm with John tho,id rather have BN in Nov but this dont look that good right now
  25. jaxjagman
    Not sure we will see that into Nov John,CFS the last few days wants to strengthen the MJO around the IDL into Nov,thats a typical SER signal which could be well into Nov,i know this is at the end of Oct but still,think we could see the same into Nov
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