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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    Its still a messed up look.The CFS is showing the tropical forcing into the WP into IO which is from Rossby and Kelvin Waves,so its more than likely gonna cause destructive interference with the MJO signal,which will more than likely go into the COD
  2. jaxjagman
    I agree with the NAO and i DO agree with the wave lenghts,but when you see a Rex Block into where i mentioned above this typically is a +PNA,it would take strong -NAO to counter that.It's one reason why last spring our severe season went to crap after a early start,this can cause the Jet Max to shit further north into spring,its one of the reasons with our severe shifted into the OV
  3. jaxjagman
    Looks severe towards the end of the month.Looks more like a East Asia winter monsoonal trough,Upper Level LOW into Russia/Mongolia and THE PIG like Flash calls it(Rex Block)in the Aleutians/Bearing Sea Euro and GFS both show this right now,surprisingly right now
  4. jaxjagman
    Oh yeah,enjoy every moment of it.Kids love it !! I have to call my lawn people out,i havent even picked up my yard yet. Like @Mathew was saying earlier we dont need to have any severe right now here,the trees are still stressed and damaged,we had some gust of just winds last Sat morning and knocked our power out for about 6 hrs
  5. jaxjagman
    Headed to Jacksonville in the morning to visit,not sure ill make it there in time for severe.Wife has to do something in the morning before we can leave Next week if we can get moisture we could possibly get some strong storms towards the end of the work week,much depends on where the subtropical ridge is at
  6. jaxjagman
    Dads on a sled never works out very well...lol
  7. jaxjagman
    Lake Erie is 96% frozen over today,that hasnt happened the last 2 decades
  8. jaxjagman
    This really has been a strange winter https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/buffalo/news/2026/02/06/lake-erie-almost-completely-ice-covered-for-first-time-in-2-decades
  9. jaxjagman
    You guys have a awesome winter,its really odd from Johnnson City to Memphis to be so cold and the rest of basically seeing a average winter.Even more odd to see Jacksonville to Orlando https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/awssi
  10. jaxjagman
    Wish we could see this into March,us severe nerds would be getting excited..lol
  11. jaxjagman
    Euro has a great track for us this afternoon for V-Day,just no cold to work with and the CF dont even look very impressive with cold behind it,,looks like another swing and a miss for us here this winter,still 7 days out so it could very well change.
  12. jaxjagman
    BAM does the same shit,its all click bait,give me your money
  13. jaxjagman
    This looks warm in the East upcoming For what ever reason,the CFS shows this tropical forcing with Rossby/Kelvin Waves into the WP/MC,but its been over amplifying this since fall,but its still a warm look, Seems like to me this is fixing to become a active severe threat up past as we get further alonginto,FEB,with the MJO,GAAM,they both seem to be coupled rather well right now
  14. jaxjagman
    I agree,i'm glad CPC switched from the ONI to the RONI.This changes somewhat how you look at analogs. I.E in 2024 and 2005 the ONI showed into OND a more neutral ENSO,while the RONI both years mentioned showed it was actually a moderate NINA https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
  15. jaxjagman
    Getting into Climo each day,right now it looks possibly like a active period coming up past the mid month.
  16. jaxjagman
    Has a close partner
  17. jaxjagman
    If somehow the GAAM can stay coupled with the MJO,it could get interesting even in Feb,tho you'd like to still see this in March
  18. jaxjagman
    Be very cautious what the models show show into the extended pattern
  19. jaxjagman
    Yes,its been like that for whatever reasons North of 1-40 seemingly the last couple decades,its the battle ground and we 90% of the time,lose
  20. jaxjagman
    Been a crappie winter win here thus far for us,unless you get into ice storms. Per Nashville in Jan.1.4" SN,that was before the ice storm and then a dusting after the ZR finally ended,that was the extent to our snow this winter other than token flakes at times which didnt add up to anything Temps were 2.4 BN.Last Jan we was 6.3 BN
  21. jaxjagman
  22. jaxjagman
    Not trying to discount you,but when you have decent warm nose advecion with a STJ 30-50 kts into Tn,it really seems impossible to get snow into Tn,it really dont matter what side of the mountain you look at,this is a weak LP it forms where ever it forms,even the WAA looks worse into East Tn
  23. jaxjagman
    Maybe your right,but even the NAM is showing a inverted trough with LP into the lower OV with the STJ around 30-40 kts,good luck with this for snow in Tn,sorry no model shows this will happen
  24. jaxjagman
    Thats a inverted trough,its always the worse Nightmare into our forum
  25. jaxjagman
    Looks to warm to me,if you really looks at the isobars this is an inverted trough and warm nose,you can then look at what the 850 shows,its definite a warm nose
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