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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman
    I really wish the NCAA and NFL would both have the same rules.Keep it simple.
  2. jaxjagman
    Usually an early SSWE means a end to winter sooner than later but not all the time.In Feb we warmed up near 80 into the 3rd week and never got below 40 again past mid month Edit:this is 1984-85
  3. jaxjagman
    Abstract [1] Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are a major source of variability during Northern Hemisphere winter. The frequency of occurrence of SSWs is influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), the 11 year solar cycle, and volcanic eruptions. This study investigates the role of ENSO and the QBO on the frequency of SSWs using the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3.5 (WACCM3.5). In addition to a control simulation, WACCM3.5 simulations with different combinations of natural variability factors such as the QBO and variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are performed to investigate the role of QBO and ENSO. Removing only one forcing, variable SSTs or QBO, yields a SSW frequency similar to that in the control experiment; however, removing both forcings results in a significantly decreased SSW frequency. These results imply nonlinear interactions between ENSO and QBO signals in the polar stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere winter. This study also suggests that ENSO and QBO force SSWs differently. The QBO forces SSW events that are very intense and whose impact on the stratospheric temperature can be seen between December and June, whereas ENSO forces less intense SSWs whose response is primarily confined to the months of January, February, and March. The effects of SSWs on the stratospheric background climate is also addressed here. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011JD015757
  4. jaxjagman
    84-85 you posted on the other page was a developing Nina but in 1984 we had an early SSWE in Dec.Then into Jan we really felt the artic plunge with all time record lows for any date, for many places in the Valley
  5. jaxjagman
    First off,i was just pointing out what the QBO was showing NOW.I never in insinuated because it was so negative now that it would be a a cold winter,just wanted to clear that up.You can go up to the July,28 post i made above back then and putting some comparison to the 2009-10 winter.But the ENSO surely doesn't seem to acting like 2009,not right now anyways.
  6. jaxjagman
    Good point about 94-95,the qbo was rather strongly negative in July with Nino starting to develop into ASO,seems it would fit the pattern tho than 01-02 when the ENSO was neutral,but who knows either might be right,3.4 has yet to get shown into Nino land
  7. jaxjagman
    Models show Shanshan basically right now going into around Tokyo around the 9th,then getting kicked out of Japan by a trough.This should set the stage for a cold front into the Valley which still looks to be around the 17th give or take a day maybe.After this East Asia looks like a chance to get broken down from the heat wave they've been going through.
  8. jaxjagman
    QBO broke another record for July like June coming in at -29.10,this is back to back record months for this year.The most negative in any month on ESRL shows was back into Nov.2005 when it reached -29.55 so this month of July ranks 2nd all-time
  9. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    There has been a down welling Kelvin Wave recently into 3.4,tried to find a dictionary resemblance somewhat to help understand Downwelling phase: Normally, winds blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific, which piles up warm water in the western Pacific. A weakening of these winds starts the surface layer of water cascading eastward. The thick warm layer sloshes east, pushing down the thermocline as it goes, thus we call this a “downwelling” wave. The thermocline is the boundary between the warmer, near surface mixed layer and colder deeper water (4). Because of this downward push as the wave travels eastward, it is harder for the colder, deeper water to affect the surface so near-surface temperatures are often above average. This will often (not always) warm the surface temperatures and plant the seeds for an El Niño (5).
  10. jaxjagman
    But is this more from a decent KW downwelling?Your map didn't pull up but WEST of the IDL and even east of the IDL is showing the thermocline around +2 on the triton,i assume that was the map you meant to post?It still looks warmer in the thermocline towards the surface into 3.4 than it does into or around the IDO
  11. jaxjagman
    WTH,when i read this i cringed and literally got nauseated,stop taking football out of football.So there will be no more dive plays over the top or diving for the pylon?Geeze will they ever stop?I completely understand the concussion part,but taking other elements out of the game to me is preposterous !! https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/08/04/nfl-rules-will-now-treat-head-first-dives-like-feet-first-slides/ Edit:They should put skates on and get cross checked into the boards and lose a tooth or two like hockey players do then come out swinging and get paid for what they are worth,you don't hear them complain?Least not right now..lol.I could care less about watching a more worthless pro-bowl game in which is what the NFL is coming into week after week...JMO
  12. jaxjagman
    Not trying to make it sound like wish casting, but i'm hoping for a 2009-10 winter repeat.This was the coldest winter in Mid Tn in 30 years during this time frame.With a developing Nino,-QBO and like you mentioned a +PDO.But the PDO into this time frame Nov. of 2009 was still negative then warming into the winter months.But it won't probably match up with the ONI posted above but still signs of a more cold winter ,least right now it seems
  13. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    The OLR shows the KW into Asia making it into 3.4 and 3,this should downwell the warmer temps closer to the surface, this is where your warmer SST's are showing right now into the thermocline east of the IDL,into the 2nd week of August and Mid month.Looks to be a more significant KW(MJO) starting to develop into the IO next week or shortly after,then towards the end of the month into 3.4 potentially.This could change most certaintly.We also could be seeing some potential tropical genesis into Florida/GOM,east coast with a possible KW being shown right now towards the end of the month http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/
  14. jaxjagman
    GFS looks more Euro today with the typhoon.Both the Euro and GFS take the system more west of the guidance pic shown posted,somewhere around Tokyo then riding through Japan ,this path would significantly weaken the storm
  15. jaxjagman
    Speaking of 2010,this was the year the bowling ball came through. http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/graphics/2009_2010/jan28_30_2010.html
  16. jaxjagman
    Invest 94W has no name yet but should have a name around tomorrow i believe.Kelvin Wave in that region is on going so the potential of a strong typhoon seems like a good possibility.High Pressure on the Euro and GFS looks to more or less centered into the Yellow Sea,so this should keep the storm away from China and for that matter even Korea.Going into China like Jeff mentioned would mean a warm Valley look.One of the differences right now is how the GFS and Euro handle the trough into Japan the next few days.So we'll see what happens. Believe the weeklies though are picking up on the potential typhoon as it shows a trough in the east with the 850's sub 15c temps around the 17th through out the Valley,this would be much BN temps and should also be a potential for decent cold front for this time of year,would be typical re-curved typhoon anyways.Also the weeklies were showing a potential warm towards the last week of August Monday,it's not even close today.So maybe the typhoon will play a part in the turning off the heat.
  17. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Downwelling Kelvin Wave right now into region 3 with into the thermocline you see some cooling and west of that you see some upwelling with warmer waters getting into the surface in 3.4 and even 3 as well.This is much like what some of the seasonals are showing for a potential Modoki look into fall severe season,but we'll see
  18. jaxjagman
    Jongdari should be headed towards or into China by mid week,this would pump up the heights in East Asia,not that they aren't already pumped up.We should warm up upcoming,maybe something similar to when Maria hit China?.Still looks like the pattern in East Asia will get broke down in the long range with lower heights than what they've been going through
  19. jaxjagman
    Euro is slightly different today for us in Mid Tn. from yesterday this time.Monday looks more scattered with weak wind shear but there is a weak shortwave trough coming through..Into the late evening into early morning Tuesday the LLShear starts to pick up.Kinda question the capes the Euro shows with the CAMS,Tuesday.But anyways the LL shear is showing 20 kts into the early afternoon into the early evening here,with the 850mb winds increasing to around 35kts around late afternoon,with another shortwave trough coming though.There would be some decent rains Tuesday afternoon into early evening here at least,if it's right of course.If the CAMS get better we'll have more severe chance.
  20. jaxjagman
    Looking at the latest solar predictions this could be even more like the 2009-2010 winter.With a developing ElNino,like during the 2009-2010 winter we had our coldest winter here in over 30 years during this time in Nashville.If it happens or not we'll see.What's interesting to me is the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is at record proportion for the month of June -28.45,though this most certainly will change,it's never been this strongly negative this time of year
  21. jaxjagman
    The Euro is hinting at a upper ridge into the Upper plains with a 594dm into the western Valley and SE into week 1 of August.So we'll see if the HP is stronger than being shown,it shouldn't be nothing more than a transient warm up.Jongdari is fixing to be a player somewhat by the looks to help break down the heat wave in East Asia.I'm sure they will be happy,there's been some record all time highs hitting around parts of Japan over 106F in Kumaguya,suburb of Toyko. So far this summer it seems we've been lucky enough to escape the heat,though it's been warm but it's summer time,so what's new The upper ridge will seemingly get pushed back from East Asia into more Mongolia and drop the heights into Korea and Japan,cool down and also into week 3-4 per CPC and weeklies and as Carver mentioned above, cooler temps into the Valley seemingly upcoming,we'll see
  22. jaxjagman
    Nashville is going with the Euro.Euro has a shortwave trough coming through the Mid Valley,late night,early morning Tuesday.Wind shear looks weakish right now but at least should be enough for a poor mans severe chance with just thunderstorms,showalter is around -4,in the Mid Valley.
  23. jaxjagman
    Kinda Modoki look into fall by Jamstec,we haven't had a good fall severe for some time.
  24. jaxjagman
    The Euro would have done great with this system if it wouldn't have crapped out at the last minute.For several runs before it showed a "LID" in place over Mid Tn. and the strongest storms over east of I-65
  25. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Jamstec the last update shows a more weak/moderate Nino,don't really look Modoki in winter and like the IMME it peaks into winter then falls off.Would make a interesting winter though as it looks even colder this last update.
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