CaryWx
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Everything posted by CaryWx
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enscrambles keeping me out of the gfs op abyss
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Wasn't there some talk earlier about how the gfs has a tendency to try and slam LPs into CAD a little too aggressively in it's modeling?
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Heck, even we'd need it a little east in Cary
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I look at the lower scoring models in a situation like this only as validation to the top scorer model predictions. If they tend to agree then the forecast it is that much more solid. If they do not, it's just a net neutral to the forecast. They are lower scorers for a reason.
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Yeah, I hope the gfs was being a bit of a diva on that run.
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Nobody should really believe it's going to blow up like that but we have a good storm system coming in it's beginning to look like.
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I'm verklempt. I'll need a moment. Talk amongst yourselves I'll give you a topic: Insane coastal snow bombs modeled inside 150hrs
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mercy!
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An MA special
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I wouldn't take it verbatim just yet. A blend of the models at this range give a lot folks something to see.
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The key thing is the euro, gfs and Icon all see it. Plus cmc too?
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BornAgain gets crushed up there in Buried Fork
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Why that's a cemetery!
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Moderate snow in Cary
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Snow/Rain mix here in Cary
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Maybe if soil temps were being driven more from the low 40s or something. Not so much coming in behind soil temps in the 60s. Count on plenty of snow runoff up there in Wet Spoon, Va.
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There's another thread for this right?
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Why do you say that?
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Yes, but we don't really get the luxury of a full astronomical winter. About 2/3rds at best.
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Heads up for NC. Christmas Day may not be so warm as projected right now.
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Well, it's a classic winter climo NC snow map that's for sure
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Finally, some honest to goodness unrealistic fantasy storms. Winter tracking '21-'22 has begun!
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The BAMx weather guy seems bullish on it. The reason I mention that is because over on 33andrain last year the posters were calling for the pattern change and BAMx was continually saying that isn't happening, to the point they sent out a tweet about folks calling them out on being wrong. Turns out BAMx was right about the pattern last year so I'm taking more stock in their LR thinking this time around.
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Bold model strategy coming into Christmas week. Lets' see if it pays off.
