CaryWx
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Everything posted by CaryWx
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There's another thread for this right?
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Why do you say that?
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Yes, but we don't really get the luxury of a full astronomical winter. About 2/3rds at best.
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Heads up for NC. Christmas Day may not be so warm as projected right now.
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Well, it's a classic winter climo NC snow map that's for sure
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Finally, some honest to goodness unrealistic fantasy storms. Winter tracking '21-'22 has begun!
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The BAMx weather guy seems bullish on it. The reason I mention that is because over on 33andrain last year the posters were calling for the pattern change and BAMx was continually saying that isn't happening, to the point they sent out a tweet about folks calling them out on being wrong. Turns out BAMx was right about the pattern last year so I'm taking more stock in their LR thinking this time around.
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Bold model strategy coming into Christmas week. Lets' see if it pays off.
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I know enough that a -PNA sucks. This one looks strong and steady for most of the month.
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smoke show?
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Hi ya Grit. Remember winter '99-'00 quite well. Had the big (record?) snow in the Triangle around mid/late January. Ironically about 2 weeks prior I recall working in my backyard and taking a nap on the deck with only a sweatshirt and it felt warm. Crazy winter swings but sometimes they produce the big ones.
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The accuweather long term forecasts (which mean nothing really) are now showing several snow chances the 2 weeks following Christmas. FWIW
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In a typical January cold this would have been our storm? Throwing only enough precip back to the Triangle to avoid a warm nose at 850, then moving out to sea.
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Playing the waiting game. Not trusting the longer term looks for another month then we'll have decent idea what winter's really going to be around here...or what potential there is rather.
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I'll take my chances. Last year we had average winter temps. It felt like winter in NC. We never got a good +PNA so no real cold air shots to sustain a good snowfall opportunity. In this part of the country we need an extreme combination to occur. The static-ness of last year did not afford that really. We might see one or two of those occur in a La Nina
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Next week's pattern trending a little cooler than previous as well
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GFS LR has some decent fall air coming into the east in about 2 weeks.
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For northern VA? No, I'm sure you'll see lower but for Cary, NC. In the accuweather forecast though (nothing of value for sure) I was surprised it did not show any mini cool/cold snap which is kind of unusual. Could be all different next week.
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Looking into the 60 day forecast thru Oct 31st I don't see one evening after this weekend forecast below 60 in Sept nor one below 50 for Oct. Not going to be very fall like from this early view anyway.
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Not bad placement on the +120
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If we do get the unusual measurable snowfall in March, like you I believe this would be the type of year (winter) for it.
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Thanks Grit
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I'm in Cary and not really changing any of my MO for this event if that means anything wrt to your location
