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michsnowfreak

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Everything posted by michsnowfreak

  1. If you're going to get screwed on a storm/cutoff, no better time than Spring. The snow just gets obliterated in the sun. Built an Easter snow bunny with my nephews at my sister's house, and despite the cold and dry air, sun is just killing the snow. Needless to say my half inch is gone. What's YYZ season? Are they the only station in Toronto that does snow? DTW is at 23.5". If no more measurable snow falls, this would rank as the 18th least snowy winter. A terrible season regardless, but January January'd so that gave the middle finger to those wishing for true futility. Detroit city probably got about 5" to DTWs 0.5" yesterday, but the season would be a wash I'm sure, as DTW frequently gets more than the city, and I can confirm this in January. Detroit city has not had snow measurements in over 50 years. In my 29 years of measuring snow in my backyard, this is only my 4th season in the 20s, and my lowest of the entire lot at 21.2". The previous low was 25.5" in 2011-12 & high 96.2" in 2013-14. Hoping year #30 is a good season next year!
  2. We will never know. But sounds like a good bet. I know in at least the 1930s-70s, the monthly logs would have the peak snow depth, not just the peak depth at obs time (if it happened to be deeper). But now it just goes by 7am, and probably the same back in 1900.
  3. Yeah. Over the course of history, there have been a handful of really potent storms after mid March, but we really haven't had one in a while. But on the other hand, the number of 3-5" type snows past mid March, especially in April, has really been impressive in recent years.
  4. Razor sharp cutoff in wayne/washtenaw County. I received 0.4" (season to date 21.2") and DTW also received 0.4" (season to date 23.4"). Meanwhile northern parts of the County had a solid 4-5". Drove 25-30 minutes to Belle Isle in Detroit and it was a mid-winter wonderland after just a dusting at home. Naturally I was pissed, but it would have been a thousand times worse if it was during winter. A lot easier to take in spring. My sister lives on the lakeshore in southern macomb county (alek-esque), usually one of the worst spots for snow in SE MI but she was one of the jackpot areas with around 5". The irony is, her snow depth peaked in January at just 4" (when most of the metro was 6-8") so technically today was her deepest of the season. My backyard (L) and Belle Isle (R), a mere 30 minute drive away.
  5. So not as many as I recalled. Quite a few in the 3-5" range but only 2 officially 6+ post Mar 15th since 2000. 7.2"- Apr 5/6, 2009 7.3"- Mar 21/22, 2008 I had an 8" storm Mar 25/26, 2002 where DTW only had 4.7" (huge cutoff).
  6. I've heard NWS mets frequently say not to add up the point and click, which I never understood lol
  7. 1931-32 was definitely warmer for the southern lakes and Midwest, but I think for the upper Midwest 2023-24 was a bit warmer.
  8. I would think 1973-74 is the best early analog in that case.
  9. Wow. Just curious? What kind of numbers are you talking for it to be biggest in a generation.
  10. Had a dusting of snow yesterday morning, just 0.1" here and at DTW but north of Detroit had anywhere from a half inch to as much as 1.5" near Flint. Was a cold and blustery day with windchills in the teens, classic strong nino wintry start to spring.
  11. I have 2 apple trees planted in fall. They are at stage 2 on the chart.
  12. Assuming that's a typo on the bottom graph (meaning it should be 2020-21) I'd have to say his forecast was dead on here. The "normal" line runs through Detroit and DTW finished the winter +0.1°. Also, am I reading correctly? Did he actually forecast 2013-14 to be a warm winter
  13. Interesting. I would not say "you know what youre getting" about Ninas here. I wonder if @40/70 Benchmark would agree for your area? Many Ninas here are front loaded, some backloaded, but usually theres a notably harsh portion of the winter and a notably meh portion (not always - see 2007-08 or 2010-11, wall to wall fun). I specifically remember that the 2000-01 winter was all midwest Nov/Dec then all northeast Jan-Mar, though I cant recall if that was an exception or the rule. Im really anxious to see if we can get one of those good, snowy Decembers because thats what we are due most for (and its also one of the snowiest months in Nina winters here).
  14. I would take my chance with ANY Nina here, but particularly 1st year Ninas. Whats funny is that 1995-96 was a really crappy winter here in that it was very cold and dry. We missed snow to the N, S, E, & W. A 6" snowstorm on the 1st day of spring 1996 "rescued" the season, DTW finishing at 27.6". Its rare that NYC beats DTW in seasonal snow, and that year they annihalted us with 75.6". It was a great year for lake ice and what not, but one of the shittier Nina snow seasons. But 2010-11? Now you are talking (69.1" at DTW, 61.9" NYC). As long as you give us a storm track, mild and even warm winters can do fine with snowfall (but of course the warmer it is, the worse snowcover is), so I guess in hindsight, 1995-96 was the MUCH rarer opposite problem- plenty of cold, missing all the storms (except clippers), no help from the frozen lakes.
  15. Flurries have filled the air almost nonstop yesterday and today but just a trace here. Missed some of the heavier squalls that coated the ground elsewhere.
  16. Cute! Oh trust me, under no circumstances would I ever root for futility lol. I went sledding in Jan...always a kid in winter!
  17. While I'm sure they won't get that much, there's definitely a significant signal for snow in the northern part of the country the last half of March. This is why I always say to those talking futility in January or even earlier that the snow season has so long to go, you really have to have EVERYTHING go wrong to get that. I can't think of a more deserving season than this one for the Northwoods, but mother nature may have other plans. Duluth still in the running, but Minneapolis screwed that up by being in the jackpot of that February snowfall. Here in Detroit, I cannot remember a more benign winter outside of one month, but since that 1 month produced 17 inches of snow, again, top 10 futility off the table. Toledo is surprisingly still in the running for their 2nd least snowy winter.
  18. No better time to start than a 1st year Nina. I know each ENSO strength has different effects between the Great Lakes & east coast, but the number of good Nina Decembers here is intriguing to me. Everything snaps at some point. We were having a historic run of snowy Februarys, then bam, 2 crap ones in a row. Likewise, a run of shitty Decembers can turn around at any point.
  19. So 6 confirmed dead in total? All at the OH trailer park? Those videos were scary.
  20. Exactly. Although it was also a 3rd year Nina. Not sure how you did up there, but a snowy March definitely brought the season total into respectability range in the metro area. This winter of 2023-24 was in a league of its own that fortunately we rarely see.
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