michsnowfreak

since 2005-06, we have had 6 colder than avg winters, 1 exactly avg, and 8 warmer than avg. Im surprised 2008-09 wasn't a cold winter in Toronto.

I initially was thinking that December was where it was at for ninas, but really its all over the board. strong ninas are strong signs for lots of December snow, but maybe everything is pushed back? because extended ensembles show cold really building in Canada towards Christmas. ninas also are usually a torch October, and this year was cool. I strongly disagree with that last statement about shrinking winters. if anything we have been seeing early and later snows, though I'm not talking Toronto, I'm talking here. any uptick in temp has been matched by an uptick in snow, and the old adage about grandpas winters of his youth has been used for centuries but never right. The 1870s seem like the best match for brutally cold and snowy winters, though ironically there were a few torch winters thrown in even then. Outside of a few winters in the 1970s and the 2010s, and other scattered ones, you are either going to get an impressively cold winter or an impressively snowy one, rare to see both the same year in the southern Great Lakes.

December looking mild for most of the country, though I'm sure it will contain some cold shots/snows in the Lakes and upper midwest. Deeper winter hopefully arriving around new years.

oh wow. That's way worse than here (26"). Just curious why you think it will be THAT bad...that has to be rare for Toronto.

Only time will tell. Fingers crossed.

What was the total snowfall in 2011-12 there? I always find it strange that every year when a mild pattern is showing up some start fearing 2011-12 lol. I actually don't fully disagree with you, I think its going to be a roller coaster of ups and downs, but I will be shocked if a stormy nina fails to materialize and snowfall ends up as bad as you fear

Browsing various outlook posts, it seems like the analogs that keep showing up are 1975-76 1983-84 1988-89 2007-08 2016-17 other ones include 1973-74, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2017-18

Nice work! I am no forecaster, just a climo guy. I am really seeing a lot of roller coaster weather this Winter, would you agree? Seems as though while it can happen any year, and usually does, nina is extra susceptible to having wild swings. For instance, a +2ﾟ nina January could easily have a Max of 62 and Min of -12 whereas a +2° nino January could have a Max of 49 in a Min of 9. how we arrive at the final on numbers may be a wild ride.

I'm thinking slightly above avg temps (wild swings though), well above avg precip, and above avg snow.

Just a food for thought post. I saw someone else posted elsewhere that It was New York's warmest 5 year stretch of winters on record for the past 5 winters. I checked out Detroit and I was surprised to see that it was a tie here as well for warmest 5 year stretch (though it was all 15-16, 16-17, 19-20, as 17-18 & 18-19 were much colder). 2015-16 thru 2019-20 tied with 1928-29 thru 1932-33 for warmest 5 year stretch of winters, with the 5 year winters mean over 3° above avg (doesn't sound like much but significant for a 5 year stretch). 1928-29 thru 1932-33 avg snow: 41.1" 2015-16 thru 2019-20 avg snow: 41.8" period of record avg: 41.1" (current avg 43") So despite this 5 year warm stretch snowfall was around avg. I could find 5 year stretches of MUCH colder temps with below avg snowfall.. Moral of the story? At a northern latitude, don't let reds and oranges on a 2 and 3 month out map worry you as much as individual patterns.

I tested negative for covid and positive for antibodies, so that's a good sign and gives me a sense of relief going into the holidays that I am likely safe, at least for a little while. But what scary times we live in.

Thanks to a few good lake squalls, i ended up with snowfall right around avg (DTW finished with 38" so about 5" below avg). it was not as bad as some people make it out to be. I hate when people do "take away" posts but im going to do it anyway. Take away the 2nd half of Feb inferno and it wasn't that bad. BTW I read your outlook. very well thought out. Its leave raking, outdoor Christmas decorating Indian summer weather right now, but I've been on the "mild Nov wintry Dec train" for a while now. Just a gut instinct/Nino climo but your outlook is similar thinking. People put way too much in week 5 or month 2 or whatever on the models. An active, mild winter here can produce lots of snow, just not the nonstop frozen tundra snowpack I like lol.

He actually said a 25% chance of a top 5 warmest winter for his area, and a 15% chance of average temps. He's really harping on 2016-17. I actually think that a deamplified 2016-17 would be a decent winter here. Throw away the insane February torch and it really wasn't bad.

I did my part!

I agree!

Nah. Asking something to hold for 3 weeks in a la nina pattern is asking a mighty lot lol.

I've had enough years of experience to know that while my mind is ready for snow November 1st, it's much better to blow mild boring weather the 1st half of November.

wild start out west. here comes a wild winter!

fwiw, I have now went out to dinner once and today I had to go to Sam's club to do some shopping. These are the first 2 times I've been in public since having it and I can report that every single person I saw was wearing a mask. If people just continue to cooperate we can hopefully avoid a lockdown.

I will say that everywhere I've been everyone has been good with wearing masks.

So many people report that and it lingers for months. I was fortunate to not have that. in fact on my sickest day I slept about 14 hours and I did not want to move and I had no appetite. I had to force myself to eat an apple and I remember it tasted so sweet and good I just did not want to eat it.

I'm wondering if anyone else here has had it? i know some in other forums did. And thank you! I really appreciate the kind words but no need to mention me, I was a mild case, I just like to point out to everyone that with first hand experience, even with a mild case, yes the flu like bad part lasts 10-14 days, but usually some minor things linger for 3-5 WEEKS. Most common is a cough and varying levels of fatigue, which is my issue, but a lot of people also lose their sense of taste and smell (luckily I did not). And again, this is common for most of the 80% mild cases. This is not close to talking about the issues that "long haulers" face and many do have permanent damage. So yes, only a very small percentage of people actually die but I just cannot stand when people compare this to any other virus. I hope they are ready to be tired and have obstacles for a month If they get a mild case.

I did not realize. sending well wishes jackstraw!

sounds like me

2011-12 was definitely worse here. It was a bit warmer than 2019-20 and had 18" less snow. I use 2011-12 as my benchmark for crap winters but it was surrounded by harsh winters so needed to flatten the curve at some point lol.