michsnowfreak

I would say the northern half of the lower peninsula is where you can really count on solid snowcover most or all of the season. The southern half of the lower peninsula is just too prone to occasional thaws, though once in a while you can get snowcover the entire Winter and then some (ie 1977-78, 2013-14). On the flip side the Great Lakes help ensure that even in the suckiest winters there will be plenty of snow chances. The extreme feast-or-famine scenarios that are possible in the northeast are far less likely here. That's why I love the years with good snowcover retention. It makes the Winter seems so much more harsh. Last year is a great example. It started early, it ended late. Snowfall ran around average in the Detroit area to above average in the Flint area. I could guarantee you that if you asked any non weather person if there was a lot of snow last winter, they would probably say no, because the entire season alternated white and bare with no extended stretches. That's why I'm surprised so many people in New England (per this thread) are not big on snowpack. All it would take is one nor'easter and some cold air to keep that snow around for a long time.

That's a good point. Maybe there is more moisture available there? I remember when you lived in West Michigan sometimes you said it seemed like Southeast Michigan actually got more synoptic snow. I mean don't get me wrong obviously I have to live by synoptic snow so I never really expect much accumulation from the lake, anything more than an inch is a bonus. I know I don't live in a snow belt so I just consider it nice that the mood flakes are almost always there. A lot of times clippers actually get like a boost/recharge when they cross Lake Michigan so they can dump more snow on the eastern end of the state, I always call those Lake enhanced synoptic snow. Finding a place prone to huge synoptic storms AND heavy Lake effect snow is just about perfect. But you also have to be prepared for those times When 2 miles away may get 2' and you may get an inch.

just awesome. id love to visit Watertown during an event. It is true that it settles faster, but it seems to settle faster during those tremendous lake effect storms because once the snowpack gets so deep it seems to need to really have a hefty water content to get deeper (like someone referenced earlier how Buffalo's 82" storm looked like 20" a few days later) If you get a few inches, yes it will settle down to like an inch but it will not disappear lol. For those lighter dusting type of events, winds are actually the enemy because they will help sublimate it fast. I was in the upper peninsula last February, they were forecast to get 3-6" of synoptic snow and the only got 3". Then overnight they forecast another 1 to 3" of lake effect I woke up and had about 7" of fluff on my car. That's daily life in the snow belts. One of my favorite things here is that following most synoptic snow events (except waa stuff), there are almost always lake effect snow showers on the back side. Though we won't see that much accumulation, it tops the snowpack with an incredible sparkle. If synoptic was a wet snow, the trees are plastered frozen in snow and everything glistens. A few pics I've taken. one was a heavy snow squall overlooking Detroit from the 17th floor of MGM, another was looking out my bedroom window one night. Its always funny to see people's reactions when the forecast is "snow showers likely" or "scattered snow showers" then they get stuck in a white out. And then on the flip side during a warned storm you may get 10" of snow but visib never drops below 0.25-0.5 mile.

Lake effect is amazing. I want to do a chase this year. I have never been in one of the really big events but I have been in a few decent ones in northern MI. What's so cool about it is almost every lake effect event is full of white outs, even the ones that don't make headlines. Even here outside the belts most of our winters will feature multiple whiteouts. They blow in-and-out so suddenly but the visibility during the brief squalls gets to near zero. For a few fleeting moments you're in conditions more extreme then the biggest synoptic storms. That's why being in one of those ungodly streamers that just doesn't move would just be incredible at how fast it piles up.

with the frontal passage overnight my total 24 hour rainfall was 3.89".

If I am not mistaken September is climatologically the sunniest month of the year here in the Great Lakes.

What was incredible in May is that it snowed on 5 consecutive days (May 8-12), complete with heavy snow and legit Winter wonderland conditions for a few hours each side of midnight May 10/11. As for October, historically it's a 50/50 shot for seeing the 1st snowflakes, however 7 of the last 8 Octobers have seen snow. Prior to that, 9 of the previous 10 Octobers saw no snow. So it's very hit-and-miss, lately it's been a hit. I generally say, and I mean it honestly, October is the month I enjoy all the fall color then November 1st let it snow. However any time there's temptation of seeing snowflakes in October, I get excited.

had 3.60" today between 4am and 7pm.

it's crazy to think that it's only been 3.5 months since I've had snow and the first flakes of the next season may only be 1.5 month away. I know, I know

2.48" here so far

Looking like average temps for September for the CFS in its "good" range. Welcome fall!

I dont follow as closely in summer, and I know beavis was just talking about UHI. just wondering is there any suspicious issues with ORD ASOS or is all good? Only asking because I'm genuinely surprised how much warmer Chicago was than here. Still a hot summer here, but far less days in the 90s. im estimating Detroit will place at 10th or 11th hottest summer.

Thunderstorms with off and on torrential downpours training over the area today. Will be interesting to see how much rain we end up with.

This was no heat wave here, but if today's forecast high of 92 at DTW pans out, which it should, it will be the hottest temperature since July 9th.

I agree about UHI

mid September 1939 had some incredible heat for so close to autumn.

Looks like Chicago hit 100 + 4 times in September. 2 of the 4 during the infamous 1953 heat wave

I notice there's no fall thread lol, so I will ask In here. Looking for help from Connecticut folks again. I know there is no exact answer, but people who live there are better than looking at those broad brushed often inaccurate maps online. I'm planning a 4 day fall trip to Willimantic. The area is so historic and I love history, so I want to do it close to peak color. When would probably be the best time to visit that area for the best fall color? Maybe my idea of "peak" is different than the official description, but they always say that average peak color in Southeast Michigan is mid or mid to late October, but lately it always seems to be late October. Likewise the trees don't seem to bloom until early and sometimes almost mid May. As if they slightly shifted later on each end of the growing season.

Oh there were definitely some crazy cold outbreaks, but the Arctic blasts (aka polar vortex) that hit the Great Lakes and Midwest in January 2014, February 2015, and January 2019 were unrivaled in severity from the mid 1930s to the late 1970s. Closest would have probably been January 1963. Again, there were certainly longer lasting Arctic blasts, I'm just talking about the severity of those. Even recently, Detroit set a more quirky record I guess you could call it, in that they went 13 consecutive days without seeing a temperature exceed 19ﾟ in late December 2017 through early January 2018.

These are all good points. On the one hand our low temps are "warming" more than our high temps (I use the word warming loosely, because it's not by much). But then on the other hand we've had 3 insane Arctic outbreaks since 2014, the likes of which we went about 45 years without a single comparable one in the mid 20th century. The climate will continue to change and evolve, but I could go on and on with dozens of examples of why winters are going nowhere for northern locations.

I agree....and ill bet money that won't happen lol

I follow climate change minimally but I've seen some of these ridiculous predictions since the 1990s, we've now hit a point where we're almost nearing the threshold of those predictions. Some garbage 1998 article said that by 2025 or 2030 temperatures would warm some outrageous amt. Which of course they have not. If anything the relatively minor sensible weather effects of climate change in the northeastern quarter of the country should please many in New England because it seems that big storms are more frequent because there's more juice in the atmosphere. We saw measurable snow in 7 or 8 consecutive calendar months last Winter here, in a Winter that goes into the record books as way warmer than average. Also many areas most snowless winters tend to be long ago. Moral of this post isn't to debate effects of climate change, its to advise against unreasonably pessimistic scenarios that just won't happen. As it is, in many areas of the Great Lakes & New England, snow averages have been rising, not falling.

Wow...i just realized how much warmer Chicago was than Detroit this summer. June ORD 74.0F (avg 69.0) DTW 71.1F (avg 69.4) July ORD 79.2F (avg 74.0) DTW 77.4F (avg 73.6) August thru 8/18 ORD 75.2F (avg 73.2 to date) DTW 73.1F (avg 72.6 to date)

this is the time of year the speculation begins in earnest....but what will happen, nobody knows.

lmao. The upcoming weather will not be even close to 1953