michsnowfreak

DTX has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for tmrw then a Winter Storm Watch for tmrw night/Sunday.

Definitely good with nickel/dime/winter...love it...but that doesnt mean i dont want a big one too!

There is some sparse data and journals and stuff that you can piece together what type of winter it was, but certainly not enough to get accurate or even semi-accurate precip/snow/temp data. I have studied it when I have spare time (often in the weather "off season" of summer lol) and have a document that I jot notes down, plus theres David Ludlum books that details things. But im nowhere NEAR done studying them. Honestly, it appears that the overall jist of winter over here (Detroit) was very similar to it is now, although a likely colder climate overall. Some winters were harsh and others were not. The 1830s to mid 1850s seemed to be dominated by mild, dry, "open" winters, though with exceptions of course (a HUGE exception being 1842-43). Then the mid 1850s to 1860s seemed to have a lot of harsh winters, tho again, with some exceptions. Notes of "easy" winters: 1846-47 (wheat crops destroyed due to open winter) 1847-48 (small quantity of snow fell, open winter; wheat damaged) 1849-50 (quite mild and snowless; only 1 day of sleighing as of Jan 28) 1852-53 (open winter, very dry) 1858-59 (crops likely damaged due to open winter) 1859-60 (wheat damaged somewhat due to open winter) 1860-61 (no ice on any river on any account, open winter) Notes of "severe" winters 1842-43 (most severe winter ever known; snowcover nov 17-apr 8) 1854-55 (open winter until deep snow late Jan, then it got the deepest since 1842-43) 1856-57 (houses suffered the rigors of the severe winter)

~4" depth here but should have more those weekend. Then I go to the U.P. next week so I'll be enjoying plenty of snow.

Thanks. DTW is at 19.8" so far. Avg for entire season is 41" (longterm) to 45" (current 30 year normals). This winter is unlike any we've seen in a long time. I found a few in the 1940s & 1960s similar. It's dominated by cold and dry and despite snowfall being below avg, there's been some presence of snow on the ground pretty much since New Year's (except for a dew days) but it's not yet reached 5" deep. Even late Nov to just before Christmas had many days of T-1" on the ground.

Technically the Jan 10/11 event saw 3.7" at DTW (3.9" here) edging out this event (3.6" DTW, 3.7" here). The difference being the Jan 10/11 was a a 2-3" event for most of metro Detroit with a small lollipop of 3.5-4" from downriver thru downtown. This event was a more widespread 3-4" event with the highest totals of 4-6" in the northeast suburbs. In a winter full of pennies and nickels, nice to have a few dimes.

You guys are having an awesome winter for snowpack in the thumb! When's the last time you had that much on the ground?

I'm here. Was just busy clearing snow, sleeping, working. Jealous of your 16" depth. I love the big piles but I snowblow anything 3"+ now. Gotta take it easy with my big driveway lol. Though I did shovel for my mom. Overall I'm pleased here. We had quite a late rally after midnight. Some massive flakes when I went to bed then surprised how much we had when I woke up considering it ended at like 3-4am. First i had big mixing worries (ended up with a glaze of ice and a few sleet pellets but was mostly snow) then I saw how the storm was busting for many to my west and the hires kept lowering and lowering qpf. Had 3.7" here. Season to date 20.5". DTW had 3.6", season to date 19.8". Looks like most of SE MI had 3-4" with 4-7" on the north east side/thumb.

Wow. When's the last time Toronto had the much snow on the ground? We had 15" in 2021 but haven't had 16" since 2015.

Kind of like some get so excited for (or frustrated for lack of) a Blizzard Warning. Hmmm, a blizzard warning for 50mph winds and 2-4" of snow or a Winter Storm Warning for 8-12" of snow with 30 mph gusts. Which shall I choose

I think this time DTX did a good job forecasting for SE MI. Right now going with 4-6" Oakland, 6-8" Macomb, 3-5" + icing Wayne/Monroe. Still so much model uncertainty with qpf and amount/extent of mixing. What started out as a higher than normal certainty for a storm when this was in the medium range last week has turned into lower than normal certainty for day of. Recent trends show that regardless of what happens during most of the event (re: amounts, amount of mixing on SE side) looks like a few hours of heavy snow, heaviest of the entire event, may end the storm in the early overnight hours. Buckle up and let it snow!

In the past I remember several storms that shouldve been warning and ended up advisory. When I was a kid it meant all the difference in the world. But now that i have access to models, forecast discussions, etc, i honestly dont care what the warning/advisory verbage is. I care about the results lol.

Wasn't Jan 12, 2024 a warning? If not I'd assume Mar 3 2023 was the last

This one has a bit of that "bowling ball" look which can really lead to some fun times.

Unfortunately this sub spreads from Iowa to eastern Ohio. Everyone will not be happy

Some of us like the weaker SE trends

Actually yes, it is a touch SE

Lmao. What fools would pick the NAM. Especially when it's not fully sampled and the NAM injested bad data.

Oops I thought I posted that in the banter/complaint thread, my bad . To be clear...your area was one of the worst so far, and i have NO gripes with people complaining about a shitty winter. And I certainly wasn't implying you. You've had an amazing calm actually with the way your winter has gone. My main irritant is the "it'll never snow here again" type dramatics that some post, even if joking. This is the only place a weather nerd has to go to escape the circus that social media weather pages have become, not to mention normies refreshing the weather app on their phone, calling it the weather channel, and saying matter of factly that their phone ap has already explained the weather lol.

While my area is still in play for a winter storm Wed night and again Saturday, its looking like the Wed storm stands a good chance to drop its heavier snow to my west giving areas like Chicago, who have had a shittier winter than here, a bigger snowstorm than we have seen yet this season. Its the weather and it does what it wants, but this is why I get so annoyed at the posts where some act like the pattern will never change, a storm will never hit their area, season futility talk in January, etc etc. Just not how weather works, and its proven time and time again.

2-3" of snow followed by some ice would be ok I guess, but I definitely want all snow. We currently have an inch of sandy textured snow on the rock hard frozen ground. So if we got at least a few inches followed by ice it would be a pretty solid base. But regardless...always root for the white gold.

Saturdays system seems more W to E whereas Wednesdays is more SW to NE. What kind of effect will the first storm have on the second?

Where do you see that? Literally the warmest most outlandish solution would have Detroit hit like 33-34 for a few hours.

Ill be pissed if we get an ice storm. The models will continue to waffle until it is fully sampled tomorrow (and even then, who knows). Every storm is unique so theres literally no telling what will happen.

Not happy with the ice threat. Though an important piece has not been sampled and will not be sampled until tomorrow afternoon per DTX. I think the chance of cold rain is very minimal.