michsnowfreak

Do they still measure at the airport or a nearby site?

With as boring as this Winter has been so far, I fully expected beavis to easily surpass his average meltdown quota, and that's fine but, but I just lol every time I hear 2013-14 was "decent". I know it was more severe in Detroit and Chicago but still, Chicago had like 225% of avg snowfall and temps like 8 degrees below avg. If you consider that Winter just decent, you will never ever be satisfied until you move to that Aomori, Japan (but warning, its probably not cold enough).

You would definitely see more snow in Detroit than New York City, but you would weenie out in Marquette. Your main crimes would be disorderly college students and you would usually have snow to play in from about Halloween till the end of April. Don't go house hunting this year though, I've never seen snow depths so low there in midwinter. The area only has between 2 and 8" of snow on the ground right now, they should have several feet. The deepest snow this winter was the last week of October. We've had several snowfalls but they each lasted like only 3-4 days on the ground.. youd think it was Denver not Detroit. Thank God the pattern change is imminent.

That's a nice picture. My brother doesn't look to have nearly that much, I think hes a what's considered Lincoln Park?

What was funny about the much maligned Winter of 2011-12, is had it not been for Morch I think it would have just blended in as run of the mill mild Winter and not everyone's least favorite Winter in their memory lol. We actually had 2 snowfalls, January 20th & February 11th, where we got several inches of snow with temperatures in the mid teens. Legit deep Winter conditions. The problem is you would think we were Denver because it vanished 3 days later.

lol. yes I was. and we quickly learned this is no normal nina. its not at all behaving how I expected. I expected extreme temp swings, instead its been stagnant with barely moving temps. I did say it would be not a great snowcover year due to the swings. but I didn't think it'd be like this. Biggest surprise is i thought It would feature way above avg precip, I would have thought it was imminent. Through January it is well below avg. in fact as annoying as it has been, most of the precip we HAVE seen has been snow, very wet snow, and of course new years ice. We have actually seen very little plain rain since before Thanksgiving. I thought February was the big wildcard in a Nina but others said it was typically torch. Lucky for us, that appears to be unlikely too. really thinking February is our best month. Some of the recent cfs runs would give Feb 2015 a run for its money. of course the cfs is a joke overall but its interesting that its not defaulting to its usual warmth.

We had freezing fog here this morning as well.

I was actually considering Houghton or calumet this year but considering its a farther drive I want to see how much snow there will be. Kind of want to save that for a good or even average snow year. we are still talking a month away and with a pattern change imminent.

Good points. It's pretty much unanimous that colder air is on the way. Add in the fact that talk of this cold/pattern change happened before models even showed it, then of course once models started showing it they rushed it as always, and you have some just saying over and over it's always 10 days away, it's never going to happen, and things like that. When there's not cold air it can still snow. We had average snowfall in Detroit in December with above average snowfall in Cleveland, all pretty much with no "cold" air to be had. The coldest days we had seemed to be products of the fresh snow that just fell. The flip side of this is when there is cold there is no guarantee of some big snow fest. However it certainly increases the chances for snow activity in the Great Lakes region and with or without a big storm we can at least have a period of actual "deep Winter" . As for skeptics of the actual cold coming? The extent of cold that we will see here is unknown, but when you are seeing unanimous support for colder than average anomalies in the dead of Winter, I think it's a safe bet the pattern is changing. Biggest place to look is western Canada. They are going from extreme warm anomalies to extreme cold anomalies in the coming change. If this somehow does not materialize you might as well just disable all weather models and start sticking your fingers out the window to see which way the wind is blowing.

I have not looked at forecasts but I have heard of the record cold going on in Russia

Screw Spring lol. Let's have a rockin February lol. Which we just might. Latest long-term trends show a much colder February then they were, but models can't get tmrw right so who knows. They are still keeping with a wet look too. So that's a good combo if it can come to fruition. the lack of cold has been insane. The coldest temp at Detroit has been 19 and that was during a snowstorm on Christmas. Then again it hasn't been warm either. A few scattered days in the 40s would make the original warmistas who coined the term "torch" snicker. I guess that's what non stop overcast will do. I cannot recall such a low temp swing over the course of a winter like this one so far. The only thing that's pretty certain is that a much colder air mass definitely seems to be coming. How much snow it produces, who gets the most snow, and how cold it gets are all questions we can't answer. But hopefully this shakes up the atmosphere and we can start having a little more fun.

Picked up 0.1" of slushy snow earlier. It was a November or April like rain snow kitchen sink. Narrow band of around 2" between Jackson and ann arbor but even that is rapidly melting. I'm at 15.0" on the season but 11.9" of that fell between November 30th and December 29th.

when ensembles lose their active look i will worry. its definitely going to get colder. question is who benefits from the snow?

rain has turned to snow here. it looks to be snowing heavily in Ann Arbor.

i have read that the models are struggling mightily as they always do when a pattern is changing.

ensembles are all over the place. it definitely looks more active, so individual op runs are worthless. Also more cold air will be available later in January. Doesn't guarantee who does well and who doesnt, but I don't think we see April like snow systems like the one ongoing for a while. Feb may actually be our best month of the winter.

I always think ensembles are the way to go once you're more than a few days out

I had planned to take my annual trip North in mid February but I may push it back to late February. Not sure yet I am going to monitor the weather but the snow depths up North right now are unreal. I cannot recall such low depths up there, I am sure it's happened before but not in my recollection. A friend went snowmobiling in Grand Marais last week and looked like there was maybe 4-5" snowpack which means tons of dirt on the trails. That should be one of the snowiest areas of the upper peninsula and they should have several feet on the ground by now. Supposedly paradise only has a few inches which blows my mind. Pattern definitely looks to be changing but it will be interesting to see how much and how fast they can catch up. I was in Munising a few years ago when they had near 50" depths. The current snow depth there right now is 5".

I remember in early March 2015 we were abnormally dry on the drought monitor with well over a foot of glacier on the ground.

The next week looks to have "unsettled weather" but I am still looking the last week of January for the best hit of Winter of the season so far, or at least since Christmas.

If you were in Detroit you would freak out this Winter lol. December actually did have 3 good east side snowfalls, nothing major but they were enjoyable...but since its been zzzzz and it has been cloudy almost every day the last month and a half with about 3 or 4 exceptions.

Again I want to know where their map comes from. This is the weeklies 30 day 2m temp anomaly. 850mb look colder. And again...this is week 3-6 aka low skill anyway

Bamwx is interesting. They like to berate day 14 of the GFS when it's not accurate (which of course it usually won't be) but theyre using a 6 week out low skill weekly. But what I really can't figure out is I have weatherbell and that is not what it shows for the 30 day anomaly on the weeklies. It isn't nearly that warm

I guess it all depends. My neighbors and I are always striking up conversations with each other. Since the deep south is filled with a lot of outdated bigotry I've always assumed the hospitality bit is just a cover.

This is another example of why I like snow cover. I've seen double the snowfall you've seen this season yet yours locked into place ahead of this ridiculously boring pattern, while I've had bare ground with these overcast days where the high and low are a few degrees apart. Its been a very mild start to January but mainly because of the low temps.