michsnowfreak

The March 3, 2023 winter storm locally had a tremendous amount of thunder/lightning reported throughout SE MI. I was able to actual personally experience thundersnow and thundersleet/freezing rain both during that event.

The ensembles look very active going forward in February. Any details or op run hugging, which is always strongly discouraged, is probably even more worthless than usual with the type of pattern (strong baroclinic zone, very cold north/warm south, etc). I actually thought I heard blocking is expected into March, but that is way too far out to even think about at this time.

January 2025 at DTW. Lots of zzzs but lots of flakes too. STATION: DETROIT MI MONTH: JANUARY YEAR: 2025 LATITUDE: 42 13 N LONGITUDE: 83 20 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 37 30 34 6 31 0 0.01 T 0 13.2 22 260 M M 10 1 28 250 2 30 27 29 2 36 0 T 0.1 0 13.3 21 280 M M 10 29 270 3 28 23 26 -1 39 0 0.02 0.4 T 13.7 24 290 M M 10 32 280 4 25 19 22 -5 43 0 T T T 14.9 22 270 M M 9 31 310 5 27 12 20 -7 45 0 T T T 8.2 16 300 M M 7 23 290 6 28 21 25 -2 40 0 0.01 0.1 T 12.2 23 10 M M 10 169 31 340 7 30 21 26 0 39 0 T T T 10.7 21 320 M M 9 31 330 8 26 16 21 -5 44 0 T T T 8.5 16 300 M M 10 25 330 9 28 7 18 -8 47 0 0.00 0.0 T 5.7 13 210 M M 2 17 220 10 26 15 21 -5 44 0 0.16 3.2 T 8.2 18 190 M M 9 128 24 190 11 34 17 26 0 39 0 0.04 0.5 4 7.2 15 290 M M 9 1 19 280 12 34 23 29 3 36 0 0.02 0.6 3 12.2 23 210 M M 9 1 30 200 13 34 16 25 -1 40 0 T T 3 16.2 29 230 M M 10 9 36 230 14 20 9 15 -11 50 0 0.03 0.8 3 11.0 21 310 M M 7 28 300 15 26 8 17 -9 48 0 T T 4 11.8 21 220 M M 7 27 210 16 32 17 25 0 40 0 0.05 1.4 4 11.5 22 220 M M 10 189 29 210 17 38 20 29 4 36 0 0.00 0.0 4 13.3 23 190 M M 7 30 190 18 38 20 29 4 36 0 0.24 T 2 12.6 23 220 M M 8 1 26 340 19 22 8 15 -10 50 0 T T 2 9.0 18 300 M M 9 24 290 20 13 5 9 -16 56 0 T T 2 14.2 24 240 M M 5 32 220 21 10 0 5 -20 60 0 T T 2 12.3 21 280 M M 6 27 220 22 16 -3 7 -18 58 0 0.01 0.1 2 13.1 20 170 M M 7 25 190 23 26 13 20 -5 45 0 0.07 1.4 2 10.5 18 300 M M 9 19 22 290 24 23 8 16 -9 49 0 T 0.1 3 7.8 15 240 M M 7 1 20 230 25 35 11 23 -2 42 0 T T 3 13.8 26 220 M M 7 37 220 26 32 21 27 2 38 0 T T 2 11.5 22 270 M M 6 34 270 27 38 18 28 3 37 0 0.00 0.0 2 19.4 32 230 M M 5 52 230 28 41 26 34 9 31 0 T T 1 15.3 31 220 M M 9 43 220 29 43 25 34 9 31 0 T T 1 12.2 25 280 M M 7 37 270 30 46 23 35 10 30 0 0.00 0.0 T 7.4 16 200 M M 8 21 200 31 40 27 34 9 31 0 0.60 0.2 0 9.3 30 10 M M 10 12 41 10 ================================================================================ SM 926 503 1291 0 1.26 8.9 360.2 M 248 ================================================================================ AV 29.9 16.2 11.6 FASTST M M 8 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> 32 230 52 230 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: DETROIT MI MONTH: JANUARY YEAR: 2025 LATITUDE: 42 13 N LONGITUDE: 83 20 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 23.0 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 1.26 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: -2.8 DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.97 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY HIGHEST: 46 ON 30 GRTST 24HR 0.60 ON 31-31 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS LOWEST: -3 ON 22 3 = THUNDER SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS TOTAL MONTH: 8.9 INCHES 5 = HAIL GRTST 24HR 3.2 ON 10-10 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE GRTST DEPTH: 4 ON 17,16 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM: VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS 8 = SMOKE OR HAZE [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW X = TORNADO MAX 32 OR BELOW: 19 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 12 MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 3 MIN 32 OR BELOW: 31 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 1 MIN 0 OR BELOW: 2 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 0

Foggy evening tonight.

We have had a lot of days since late November with a light amount of snow on the ground, but our peak depth (on multiple days in Jan) was only 4" so far. Last winter was obviously a well discussed mild train wreck, but during the brief spell of deep winter last January we got up to 7" snow depth.

Roads were very slick. The ground is still so cold and frozen. Our snowcover had melted a few days ago, other than some piles.

DTW saw 0.8" today, bringing the season total to 15.1". Snowfall has been observed on 32 of the past 35 days.

Massive change in the weeklies in terms of temps. Much colder look.

I'm fine with that if we get a nice snowpack ahead of it

Nice band of moderate snow moved through this morning. Short but sweet. 0.8" of powder. Now at 15.6" on the season. It'll melt tmrw but looks like there's potential moving forward.

Feb 1/2, 2015 was one of my favorite storms ever. 16.7" at DTW.

The Twitter searches for "find me a tweet that goes with what I want" have really gotten obnoxious and cluttering in this thread.

Rain to snow last night caused a dusting of snow and icy sidewalks to start Feb. With some flurries this morning it has now snowed on 31 of the past 34 days.

DTW finished January with 1.26" precip, 8.9" snow, and a mean temp of 23.0°, which is 2.8° colder than avg. Max/min 46°/-3°. I was very close, with 1.28" precip and 9.2" snow. Despite the overall zzz pattern, snowfall was observed on all but 3 days this January. 4 of the past 5 Januarys have failed to hit 50°.

Spartman often has the deep south in mind when posting lol. February definitely not a certain dumpster fire. Plenty of potential and a much more active pattern than January.

The narrow band of heavy snow that hovered right over dmcs hood had massive flakes. Here the rain did change to snow for a few hours before ending but it was not heavy. We picked up 0.2" but the bigger story was flash freeze. Everything became an ice rink.

A met posted this in the new england forum but it's very worth repeating in here as we move into February: Yeah this is the type of pattern that is about as bad as it gets for model guidance in the medium/long range. Very high gradient with fast flow and an emphasis on what is going on in the fast flow coming out of the arctic regions which even in the age of satellite data is poor coverage up there. I’d expect lots of big shifts. Something that may look good at 6-7 days out could easily be congrats Montreal at verification…and vice versa.

Snowfall the last 3 winters (not counting this one) has been well below avg at CMH. The last 6"+ snowfall at DTW was Mar 3, 2023. Like I said, a few years of below avg snowfall is nothing after the period we went through, but it still grates on my nerves and I hope a good storm is to come this winter. IF Detroit doesnt see a 6"+ storm this winter (largest last winter 4.6", largest so far this winter 3.7") it will be the first time since 1998 that we have seen back-to-back winters without one. # of 6+ storms per winter since 2000 2000-01: 1 2001-02: 1 2002-03: 2 2003-04: 0 2004-05: 3 2005-06: 2 2006-07: 1 2007-08: 3 2008-09: 3 2009-10: 2 2010-11: 3 2011-12: 0 2012-13: 2 2013-14: 6 2014-15: 1 2015-16: 1 2016-17: 1 2017-18: 2 2018-19: 0 2019-20: 2 2020-21: 1 2021-22: 2 2022-23: 2 2023-24: 0

This is pretty close to correct. For the entire winter of 2023-24 & thru Jan 30th of the winter of 2024-25. The winter of 2023-24 saw 23.4", which is 21.6" below avg, and thru Jan 30th of this winter, the total of 14.1" is 10.2" below avg to date. Of course we all have no idea how the rest of this snow season will play out, with nearly half to go. But I knew at some point we would pay for the excess snowfall. Doesnt make it any part of enjoyable, but you knew it had to happen at some point. In fact, the 1991-2020 averages are the snowiest of any 30-year period (45.0") due to so many snowy winters. The longterm avg is around 41". The running 10 year avg snowfall of 40.9" is right around the longterm avg.

lol well i dont want the garbage, but it is what it is.

I agree 100%. I dont care how many more models there are, how many improvements have been made etc etc, but I have been following the weather models for about 25 years and at the end of the day, predicting weather for mby is NO better/easier now than 25 years ago. Someone will rush to the defense of, well, this and this and this is why things went wrong. But we hear that nearly every season, every year. The end result is the same. The way this winter has played out through January is not even CLOSE to what was forecast. If anything, its about as opposite as you can get. As an example, here is what a typical forecast for January (heavily Nina factored) was in the Fall. Precip above to well above avg, snowfall avg to above avg, temps avg to above but with wild swings. Multiple storms/thaws producing some heavy snow but not sustained snowcover. Instead we get precip well below avg, snowfall below avg, temps below avg and sustained (albeit light) snowcover.

Gross day out. A cold, dry, white January ends on a mild, wet, bare (except for piles) note.

If you scroll down. You will see 2m first and then surface. They are always different. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"]}

Is there a scale for colors and departures? Also, why do the 2m and surface temp maps differ so much? I always considered them one in the same.

Heres a fun one for the Chicago peeps. Those dustbowl winters of the 1930s were full of bare ground then the occasional big blizzard. In the winter of 1930-31, Chicago did not exceed 1-inch snow depth ALL season long...until a 16-inch snowstorm hit March 7-8.