michsnowfreak

You have been on a mission to prove that this is not going to be a super event for months. Like it’s some boogey man that you’re terrified to see. I don’t think the paranoia lies with me lol But you have been on a mission to prove this IS going to be super lol.

We had that heavy frontal snow thanks to the lake Nov 19th, kinda similar to Nov 27th this year. The lakes definitely help out when synoptic doesn't. It would appear there are thread the needle chances the first half of December, but it will be mild. Of course the potential turn to colder/stormy around Christmas is what has my early attention.

Too funny! Completely accidental. But I like!

There have been many instances where a drier than average winter produced above average snowfall. What happens this winter though remains to be scene.

November finished at DTW with a temp of 41.0° (-0.2°) and snowfall of 2.2" (+0.3"). However the total precip of 0.99" was good for 15th driest November on record.

Sounds good to me. For an area that statistically has around a 50/50 shot at a White Christmas, we have had quite a few postcard worthy, perfectly timed December 24-25 snowfalls here in recent years (2017, 2020, 2022).

I'm still not getting the whole sample size theory. As small as it, even still none of the maps look anything like the others. When you have a sample size of TWO winters, and one of the two includes the record warmth of Dec 2015, of course the "composite" map is going to look warm. How about a sample size of Feb 2014 & Feb 2015 to come into play this Feb?

Not only that, but even with that small sample size, there was no correlation whatsoever when i ran the Detroit numbers. I'm sure running other cities numbers would yield similar results.

My 1.6 settled to about half that with a high of 28 yesterday lol. But hey it's better than no snow!

December starts in 2 days. Figured it's time for a new thread. White Christmas? Only 4 weeks to find out.

I have yet to see who is forecasting or even implying a cold December in the east. In fact, pretty much every forecast I have seen, regardless of the overall outcome, has December as the mildest month of winter. I guess if someone doesn't forecast a Dec 2015 redux that means they are saying it will be cold? Or is it the fact that people note the fact that it can and will still snow in a mild December in places? As I type it's 18° here and I have a little snow on the ground. A warm December in Detroit is still colder than a cold December in Albuquerque. It's all relative. Anomalies are just that. The country doesn't literally get turned upside when it's "cold" in the SW and "warm" in the NE.

The squall was very intense, as I posted in the November thread. Completely different here and there lol. Canton- 1.6" sun, 0.5" mon Wyandotte- 0.2" sun, 1.7" mon

It was a true whiteout for a brief time. Made up for missing out Sunday. Beautiful winter morning this morning.

I just ran the numbers for DTW, not the CONUS. But found no correlation locally whatsoever. 2002 S(+) O(-) N(-)...avg - 2004 S(+) O(+) N(+)...avg + 2006 S(-) O(-) N (+)...avg - 2009 S(+) O(-) N(+)...avg + 2014 S(-) O(-) N(-)...avg - 2015 S(+) O(+) N(+)...avg + 2018 S(+) O(-) N(-)...avg - 2023 S(+) O(+) N(-)...avg + + falls 2004-05 D(-) J(-) F(-) 2009-10 D(-) J(-) F(-) 2015-16 D(+) J(+) F(+) 2023-24? - falls 2002-03 D(-) J(-) F(-)...avg - 2006-07 D(+) J(+) F (-)...avg + 2014-15 D(+) J(-) F(-)...avg - 2018-19 D(+) J(-) F(+)...avg + Since 2002, 4 falls featured a colder than average temperature departure, and the following winters were split, 2 mild, 2 cold. The 3 Falls prior to this year that featured a warmer than average departure produced 2 cold winters and 1 mild winter. Also, the months were all over the place in terms of which ones were warmer and which were colder than average. FWIW I found that the closest fall temperature average to 2023 was 2009. Another interesting thing I noticed is that 2023 was the only year of all 8 nino Falls since 2002 where no month had a notable departure. S (+0.8) O (+1.5) N (-0.4 est)

And vice versa. Look at November 1997.

I don't make forecasts, I just read others lol. I'm certainly a cold snow guy if you're talking about what I like, but I don't forecast. I have learned over the years though that many (not all) forecasts contain forecaster bias (be it warm or cold). This is not even a knock on the forecaster as much as it is acknowledging how full of unknowns the weather is. Actually I've given some guys in a local weather chat hell in past years because due to a few cold, snowy Novembers being followed by warm Decembers, they started acting like November cold/snow is a bad omen. Ironically woke up to a beautiful wintry morning here with fresh snow and temps in the teens. This November will finish with both temps and snowfall near avg here.

I have to agree regarding november especially. Each winter has its own mind and no two are exactly alike, but I under no scenario can I see November's snow and cold, or lack thereof, as having any correlation to the coming winter.

It was legit. It was almost like an unintentional storm chase for me. My brother wanted to go downtown Detroit to dinner and check out the Christmas stuff. The squall hit as we were out, and it was such a perfect atmosphere. I figured the band would weaken some as it headed south but still snow, but instead it strengthened. As we left Detroit it had tapered to flurries but we ran right into it and drove through it the whole way home, Visibility near zero by my house briefly. It was enough to disorient you if you didn't know where you were because the traffic lights were obscured until the last minute.

Snow squall warning verified here. Had a great time. Went to Detroit to Campus Martius to check out the Christmas stuff and did it in heavy snow, then followed the squall home. After all day snow flurries and light snow dropped 0.1" following yesterday's 0.2" slush, the squall dropped a quick fluffy 1.6" of snow.

Lightly snowing and blowing today creating a wintry feel. Looking forward to see what kind of lake response/banding we get this evening as a shortwave moves thru.

Not to speak for bo, but i would think it would have to be a very warm start to spring for him to have bare ground in mid April. Also, this seems late for his winter snowcover to be laid down.

Started as a few hours of rain here then to wet snow. 0.2" of slushy snow here. 0.5" DTW. Away from the water most of SE MI got 1-2", but this is not uncommon for a November snowfall.

I expect pics!

Haven't had snow since Halloween, though the ground has snow on it November 1st. It's gonna be a sloppy white rain in dtw but I'm interested in les band potential tomorrow

13-14 was the most severe winter on record at Detroit. 14-15 smashed records in the east while the midwest had the coldest Feb since 1875 or of all recorded history (depending on location). In 2019 a record smashing arctic blast hit the midwest, and it was record smashing during already what is the coldest part of the year. And in Feb 2021 Texas lost their shit when temp records broke by 20+ degrees in the Arctic blast. That is all less than a decade ago. There is absolutely no reason to believe that when the ingredients are right the east won't have a brutally cold winter that's on par with other cold winters of the past few decades. And no, I'm NOT saying I think that happens this winter. And no, I'm not denying anything (ugh I hate that I even added that part in there, like it's mandatory on here when you talk of cold weather).