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michsnowfreak

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About michsnowfreak

  • Birthday 05/08/1983

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDTW
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    Male
  • Location:
    Wyandotte, Michigan

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  1. michsnowfreak
    Strong Ninos are still generally the worst-case scenario for winter here, but again, we still get winter. Ironically, the strong Nino you guys would pick out of the big guns would probably be 1982-83, and that was the worst one here. Each still has different patterns, some big storms, and often decent spells of winter....its just the mean over the whole season is subpar relative to climate. The east is more feast/famine. The Great Lakes always save us to an extent. Even in the worst case scenarios we get plenty of mood flake days to feel like winter. Detroit and Boston average near identical seasonal snowfall. In the past 50 years....both places averaged 44". Yet, look at the top and bottom 5 in those 50 years at each location. Detroit Boston 20.0” – 1982-83 9.3” – 2011-12 23.4” – 1997-98 9.8” – 2023-24 23.5” – 2023-24 12.4” – 2022-23 23.7” – 1999-00 12.7” – 1979-80 24.1” – 2003-04 14.9” – 1994-95 94.9” – 2013-14 110.6” – 2014-15 74.0” – 1981-82 107.6” – 1995-96 71.7” – 2007-08 96.3” – 1993-94 69.1” – 2010-11 86.6” – 2004-05 65.7” – 2008-09 85.1” – 1977-78
  2. michsnowfreak
    Its my understanding that the pre-1950 ENSO years are more subject to debate re: strength, but still cool to see which years were which. 2002-03 was another cold moderate Nino. 2009-10 was funky but cold in spots. And several others hovered near climo temp-wise.
  3. michsnowfreak
    Oh I do too. I take everything with a grain of salt at this stage. I have also said several times that I expect '26-27 winter to be milder here than the past 2. But these automatic assumptions of some torch winter and a super nino- not buying it at this stage.
  4. michsnowfreak
    So the model is simultaneously correct in jumping to a stronger Nino, but INCORRECT in staying consistent with a cold winter look in the Great Lakes, similiar to the last 2 winters. Got it.
  5. michsnowfreak
    I disagree. While the mean of a strong Nino is a milder than avg winter in the north, keep in mind theres tons of hugging the warmest and/or least wintry Ninos on record in here by some. Thats not how weather always works. The strong El Nino of 1911-12 was a brutally cold winter, one of the coldest on record. It definitely didnt fit the mold of a typical strong Nino. And yes, even back then (before we hear about a different climate) strong Ninos generally produced mild winters, including 1877-78 (year without a winter in the upper midwest) and 1918-19 (a winter far less snowy than any ive ever experience). Using the more common post-1950 list. Moderate are a mixed bag- several cold winters in there. And several of the strong Ninos averaged on the average to cool side of average here.
  6. michsnowfreak
    January 2024 actually was a decent winter month here. It was shockingly (for a strong nino) the wettest january on record at Detroit. Which jives with what you mentioned about strong ninos being wetter. There was a big cold snap mid month and the Plains actually finished the month colder than avg. It was the warm and very low snow December and February that made it such a bummer. This is a pic from Jan 2024. Much of the month resembled what winter in MI should. The problem is Dec and Feb didnt.
  7. michsnowfreak
    Thats the way to run a strong nino. Cansips has been hellbent on a 3rd straight cold winter in the Great Lakes.
  8. michsnowfreak
    100%. Some are relying/hoping too much for the warmest possible scenario and im just not buying it at this time.
  9. michsnowfreak
    Yeah shutout may not be the best choice of words, I took it literally lol. 2015-16 was a better snow season here than 1997-98 or 2023-24.
  10. michsnowfreak
    Hmm while im not as familiar with east coast climate, that seems pretty much impossible to get a total shutout in new England. Shitty compard to climo, yes, but shutout or even close, never. Im in SE Michigan, i turn 43 next week and the least snowy winter Detroit has recorded during my lifetime was 23.4" in 1997-98. 2023-24 was right there at 23.5". Go north in Michigan and snow towns were calling 2023-24 with its 60, 80, 100" a "non-winter". So all of this worry about the worst case scenarios is STILL relative to one's climo. Even IF its a strong or super nino, many other factors come into play too. So I can say with 100% confidence that any area north of NYC will not be shutout.
  11. michsnowfreak
    Id think its way too early to say anything. I mean "potential" is there for a lot of stuff. But with the ability to make snow im sure ski areas will be fine regardless.
  12. michsnowfreak
    We fairly frequently get snowpack with 1-2" water content but rarely more than that. The most water content i can recall was 2014 with about 4-5" water content by late Feb.
  13. michsnowfreak
    Not a chance. It will be the same crickets as during the cold winter. Unless the west continues to bake.
  14. michsnowfreak
    Im taking a stab in the dark, but i think snowman is going with a super nino.
  15. michsnowfreak
    Not sold on a super el nino and especially not on a torch. I do think it will be milder here than the last 2 cold winters, however.
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