michsnowfreak

Weeklies below avg every week here. SE ridge definitely appears to have been overdone.

Lol 5 days ago this was a raging SE ridge

Please also include eastern lower MI on those maps

Blizzard ongoing in the western U.P. of MI. Between a synoptic dump and lake effect The western UP will easily see 2-3+ feet of snow. Jealous is an understatement. Snow squalls will hit the entire state of MI, with accumulations ranging from a dusting to 18" depending on location. Winds gusting 45-55mph. Lake snow warnings also up in upstate NY. The gales of November are roaring and winter has arrived. Coming to New England shortly.

It's probably gonna be amazing scenery in the western UP. Heavy wet snow clinging to everything then it freezes up then fluffy drifty lake snow. 2-3 feet possible near Ironwood. Always not fair when a lake belt gets slammed with synoptic snow first. So jealous!

The orientation of temp departures this November is absolutely nothing like the top 3 warmest novembers. DTW finished in the top 20 warmest in the top 3 warmest conus Novembers, and will finish this November colder than avg.

Thank you Don. I knew todays run was colder, which is why I said that to spartman. You don't ever look at the cfs weeklies (or any weeklies) and speak in absolutes. They change all the time.

Now post todays.

There was talk of underestimating the SER. If trends continue it was grossly overestimated.

Figured I'd start the thread. While the Winter Solstice is still 4 weeks away, met winter starts in a week. Its been quiet since many of us saw out first snow and taste of winter November 9-10, but now wintry potential is showing up in multiple extended forecasts. So it's time!

Nearly all of that 2000 snow fell on December 30 though. For the record @MJO812 im certainly not saying it doesn't snow in NYC in nina decembers. Just that it's snowier than normal further north. NYC can often be on a gradient line. Plus add in the fact that those northern places already average more to begin with, and you can come up with quite a contrast by months end.

Who wants to start the Winter medium/long range thread?

Good snowfall pattern stretching from the upper midwest and Great Lakes into new England, with poorer snow chances in the midatlantic and points south is, again, classic Nina December.

The last week of November actually got colder on the weeklies. And has for several days. Though I know youre concentrating on December. I know the Mid-Atlantic may not like it but those weeklies with the cold to the Nw and warmth to the SE would be a great storm track for the Great Lakes.

People post from different regions so different effects are expected. Plus the select group of posters who always/only look for warm will be looking and scouring social media for whatever they need to to mitigate any cold. But overall appears that in typical nina fashion, the already cold north will have colder anomalies and the already warm south warmer ones. In other words big temp gradients, at least at times.