michsnowfreak

Prime winter climo is mid January to mid February. Last 30 years, percentage of 1"+ snowdepth on Christmas is 40%. On groundhog day its 67%.

You staying all winter?

I actually didn't say I preferred it, you assumed that..it was noteworthy because the models suddenly chopped 20° off our highs overnight. But of course, your assumption was correct. The untimely melting of the snow makes for a bare Christmas, but the ground is frozen and lakes covered in ice and January and February are big winter rec months in Michigan...so why on earth would I want 60 over 40?

The models have all been struggling mightily.

After having 60s advertised for over a week either Christmas day or the day after, now we may not hit 40 lol.

DTW is at 12.9" which an exact tie for their 1936-37 futility mark. The average last snowfall is nearly 4 months away.

Yes. A La Nina is always more hostile in the south. Here in the north it looks fine. And even in the NE. By mid January temps are avg to below avg the rest of January as we get into the climatological coldest time of year. Again...euro has not done well....but still, im looking forward to what Jan/Feb may bring

I must point out the irony that today is the first official day of winter and the 7am snow depth has fallen to 0 at DTW for the first time since 7am November 29.

One of the rare times I agree with you. Its actually incredible how the Euro and its ensembles used to be "king" and how they have regressed so much.

Yesterday's weeklies were the warmest and they corrected cooler again today. The weeklies past 2 weeks, if they are correct, are like the old "broken clock is right twice a day" saying.

Yessir!

A canonical la nina is a VERY roller coaster ride- more roller coaster than typical climo. So expect tons of model chaos the rest of the winter. Our region is definitely a better place to be than the east or especially south. But just be warned...there's likely plenty of excitement and disappointment ahead.

Also....a canonical la nina is a VERY roller coaster ride- more roller coaster than typical climo. So expect tons of model chaos the rest of the winter.

Today is the first day with bare ground at Detroit since November 28th. It was the 5th coldest first half of December on record and still running over 8° below avg. As i recall the poster in question "predicted" a warm start to December. Unfortunately mother nature doesn't always sync herself with Bing Crosby. Remember 2022? It was a mild winter but a perfectly timed cold snap brought near record coverage of a white Christmas to the CONUS.

I agree. They change daily. When they stop flip flopping is when you can be more confident in a scenario.