michsnowfreak

Yes. A La Nina is always more hostile in the south. Here in the north it looks fine. And even in the NE. By mid January temps are avg to below avg the rest of January as we get into the climatological coldest time of year. Again...euro has not done well....but still, im looking forward to what Jan/Feb may bring

I must point out the irony that today is the first official day of winter and the 7am snow depth has fallen to 0 at DTW for the first time since 7am November 29.

One of the rare times I agree with you. Its actually incredible how the Euro and its ensembles used to be "king" and how they have regressed so much.

Yesterday's weeklies were the warmest and they corrected cooler again today. The weeklies past 2 weeks, if they are correct, are like the old "broken clock is right twice a day" saying.

Yessir!

A canonical la nina is a VERY roller coaster ride- more roller coaster than typical climo. So expect tons of model chaos the rest of the winter. Our region is definitely a better place to be than the east or especially south. But just be warned...there's likely plenty of excitement and disappointment ahead.

Also....a canonical la nina is a VERY roller coaster ride- more roller coaster than typical climo. So expect tons of model chaos the rest of the winter.

Today is the first day with bare ground at Detroit since November 28th. It was the 5th coldest first half of December on record and still running over 8° below avg. As i recall the poster in question "predicted" a warm start to December. Unfortunately mother nature doesn't always sync herself with Bing Crosby. Remember 2022? It was a mild winter but a perfectly timed cold snap brought near record coverage of a white Christmas to the CONUS.

I agree. They change daily. When they stop flip flopping is when you can be more confident in a scenario.

First time all of December we saw bare ground today (though we got a fresh dusting), neighbors snowman appears to be on ozempic. Im liking the look of both euro and cfs weeklies for January. Only christmas week appears hostile, and wouldn't you know it, the core of the warmth here will be Dec 25-26. The insane temp departures to the south won't make it to the north for long, but it certainly looks like a mild holiday week.

This doesn't remind me of 2022-23 at all. That was a brutal cold shot but it lasted like 5-7 days. We had a solid 3+ weeks of cold/snow in the region this time. And this break isn't necessarily going to last as long as some of these posts imply. Per both the euro and cfs weeklies the above avg temps are gone before the end of the first week of Jan in the Lakes (add one more seek for thr southern sub). And there will be fleeting snow chances before then.

Woke up to bare ground for the first time since November 28th but snow showers all day have given a fresh coating. This neighborhood snowman must take ozempic

Why not a snow squall warning?

You have today and yesterday mixed up.

Not sure how long the more hostile pattern will last, but definitely dont see any pattern sustaining itself the rest of winter. One analog year that Ive not seen thrown around, but this winter is somewhat resembling so far (at least through the forecasted end of December) is 1964-65.