pasnownut

CMC also shows delayed ejection of cutoff SLP in SW, and offers something similar. We know cutoffs often get stuck on the models, and while NAO is lifting out, flow prior is/was progressive, and while I can see what they are saying vs changing base state, if it ejects sooner, it'd be a potentially nice chance at something. I'm just not buying the bottled up look in the SW. Cutter option, yeah thats totally possible. I'm just thinking timeing is wonky. Thats all.

Nooner GFS is one wonky ass evolution for next week. IF that happens as modeled, it'll just be another "can you belive that sh!t" moment in the chronicals of how to get screwed in winter. Although I can see what its saying (matching up to base state...specially NAO lifting out wise), but I'm not buyin what its sellin.

Thats funny. I thought the very same thing on way in yesterday. One mornings cold spot, was the next days warm spot, and vice versa. But, yeah, no matter the winners n losers in the number contest, its plenty friggin cold enough no matter where you are.

on drive into work, temp range was -2 to +3. -2 in same area that had -11 yesterday. One thing that makes me feel better about the warmup, is that itll be getting back towards normal, but with the dense cold, and frozen ground, it should help w/ snowpack retention for a while anyway. Hoping the overnight Euro wasnt sippin on too much Vodka. We'd take that one.

My woodstove is hungry as well. Every morning, barely enough coals to kickstart the next load. I'm burning ash (unlimited supply - free), so not complaining, but I'm burnin though the wood right now. Still have 3.5 qds left for rest of winter so not worried.

Thats my first thoughts as well. Verbatim, thats a nice setup and CAD would likely do pretty well at least for part of the event

I hope youre right. I think only worry is that once NAO goes into + terrirory during that timeframe, it then is a matter of what happens after that. NAO as of today looks to head further into + territory and coupled w/ the AO being slated to also be slightly +, that could bring the boundary further north, and is something i'm watchin for in the next few days. Neut PNA is only ok if we have some NS forcing, and if not, pac origin air likely wins out. also, IF we can get MJO headed back twds 7/8, I'll feel a bit better and will have trackin pants close by.

those cuttoffs often seem to get hung up (known euro bias of yesteryear), but looping through it appears that its coming out in pieces, until blocking weakens and yep, it cuts. IF we could hang onto that blocking a bit longer, outside chance at some fun here for next weekend.

rolling forward, I think we'd want smaller events, as we lose blocking, and big ones likely will cut. Fortunaly neutral PNA keeps flow flat and hopefully keeps NS influence close enough that we dont scorch, and have a chance at snow pack retention (some likely to lose, but likely not all of the state). Seeing the MJO in low amp maritime makes me think WAR may not come roaring back....yet.

hoping for many other "setbacks".....lol

I had -4 at home in Akron, and saw -11 as I headed backside of Rothsville towards Newport Rd. Warmed towards 0 as I got closer to office. My woodstove wasnt enough to keep heat from kicking on to "help" it. Brr

rippin through my fam and friends as well. Wife just came home and said, "i've got it, headed straight to bed". She didnt thank me for bringin it home from the cabin. I've been fighting it for a few weeks, buddy at the cabin went full on flu, and that pushed my immune system to the break point. I sound like hell, but feel better. Good luck to all.

I'll add that is one loops through the entire nooner GFS, one would not disapprove, as "bitter cold" is replaced w/ "cold enough", and vorts battle out in between. I approve...but whether I believe...like you, I'll stay interested.

yeah NS still has some oomph left in it, but as troughing eases, something well timed may follow as we kiss the icebox of 25 goodbye.

I think as you state, news outlets us MU, but NWS and related often use LNS/Airport readings. In situs like today, microclimate/geographical diff's often lend a notable hand in what is observed, and what is shared. I shared, because mine is 100% legit (right at Little Chiques creek to shells run) , and most will likely not hear of it, cause I'm not official. Just thought the numbers guys here would be impressed w/ it. where that reading took place was a low lying dip and for maybe 1-1.5 miles i was in - territory. then as i got closer to Etown proper, i got back into the + side of the thermo.

Looks like some globals are trying to do a repeat of last system and pops a trailing vort. Here's to atmospheric memory...lol

-10 approx 3 miles east of Mt. Joy Twnshp building on way into office (approx 4-5 miles east of Elizabethtown. Timestamp was 7:20 am Pic of car thermo on phone for proof, but too big to post.

As 99% of my time is spent in our thread, i just checked enso update, and am glad to see that the influence cont8unues to be rather muted. IMO it give us a better chance when AO/NAO/PNA/EPO are in workable phases. Looking like a relaxation is looming twds EOM, but nowhere close to writing Feb off as we'll need to see what the base state looks like in the next week or so. Till then...enjoy deep winter gang.

FYI down to flurries here.

Yeah I agree. While I love the hunt, I really love the snow more. Done this for too long and at some point ya just gotta let it b what it’s gonna b and stop obsessing over qpf outputs. We’ve been jipped a plenty down here so it’s nice to see one come in pretty much as advertised.

On n off mod bursts. If we can get 1” addl we should get rather close to nws call. im happy if we don’t. Nice event. didn’t look at models all day. Just enjoyed the view.

Back poor h looks like a solid 6” will measure after game. fyi. Busch light is great for sore throat pain n fighting something. Kill it from the inside.

Still rippin here. Well done NWS. yes..I said it!

Wasn’t he complaining a bit ago? Hehe

Agreed. Just a beauty here. enjoy to all. go birds!!