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pasnownut

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Everything posted by pasnownut

  1. pasnownut
    HH Euro is all but a statewide WSW level event. Been a minute since I can say we've had that potential.
  2. pasnownut
    at 15:1 you got 10" to turn that frown upside down. Hope it holds for you.
  3. pasnownut
    Fortunately the lowest scoring GFS is the only one saying this. CMC/ICON and Euro say otherwise, so there's that. Looking at 500's on GFS vs its twin big brothers, GEFS/GEPS both look better w/ trough axis, so would probably argue against what their little brother is spittin out. Me thinks anyway.
  4. pasnownut
    Looking back over the nooners (so far), GFS is a southern outlier because its a strung out mess. CMC/ICON much more consolidated with nice qpf distributio and while slower in progression are much cleaner in evolution. Does that mean they are right....dunno, but that's my take.
  5. pasnownut
    Little too early to be in the bullseye, so buyer beware. Pattern is a more stable one, but with a slightly slower ejection out of the SW, it makes me nervous at 5 days out. If it were 2 days out, i'd feel a bit better. Something to consider as we move forward.
  6. pasnownut
    i almost spit out my lunch. Thanks for that.... No really....THANKS for that. Wowzers
  7. pasnownut
    Yeah I agree w/ you. If euro holds this look, I'd think the GFS just had a hiccup, or it's an outlier w/ the flatter progression
  8. pasnownut
    CMC follows euro and pops a secondary for a little back end action. I'd be giddy w/ what it shows. verbatim -30+ hrs of snow.
  9. pasnownut
    CMC also slower and trend looks to be slowing this down a bit
  10. pasnownut
    CMC takes the look of the Euro. We'd sign....well I would.
  11. pasnownut
    CMC slightly south but still a rather nice look. Keeps us in a good spot.
  12. pasnownut
    GFS says what MA storm.... healthy case of suppression depression. While we dont like, cant dismiss as many have suggested the cold press may do this.
  13. pasnownut
    Really surprised by trough axis on nooner Icon, but that is what let this baby climb. Lost the E-W look at 500 and broad eastern trough that SLP traverses. Actually its a rather clean and classic look IMO. Now....how much faith do we put in it? Lets see what the rest of the big boys show
  14. pasnownut
    you and the entire state of Pa bud. Lets hope the trend is our friend once again today.
  15. pasnownut
    Yeah, really like that look. Nice start to the day eh? edit: entire state would like that look as 80 northers get some action verbatim
  16. pasnownut
    2nd place in eastern pa never felt so good. north trends seem to continue. Gnight all.
  17. pasnownut
    I was just gettin ready to say something along the lines of "havent we done this before"...like last week :). Stay put bud. I think you'll be fine right where you are. Not saying we jackpot, but definately plenty enough to sit tight and enjoy.
  18. pasnownut
    While GFS has been less than stellar, I still look for trends/similarities, and 0z just made a rather notable move N w/ qpf well into pa. toggle back from last few runs and quite the bump north. SLP pops about 150-200 miles N of HH run. I'll absolutely take this as a good sign.
  19. pasnownut
    extrapolate a will pal....
  20. pasnownut
    based on setup/evolution, I feel pretty good about at least warning level for southers, w/ I80 still well in the game for something notable. This setup isnt so much slp placement as much as baroclinic zone and max forcing in between NS/SS. While 700's frontogenic still well south of us, euro was gettin close enough to raise ones eyebrow. IMO this is a tad more simple to watch vs miller a, as trough axis isnt really in play as much as forcing and where best lift sets up. Thats how i see it anyways.
  21. pasnownut
    yep it looked strung out, and it left some energy behind at 12z, so hopefully just GFS doing its thing. As you suggested and I alluded to at lunchtime, I'm looking for trends and consistency, and north/west has been the trend of the day. Hoping we can continue that at 0z's
  22. pasnownut
    HH GFS joins the maybe it snows in CTP party. Sorta wonky evolution, but it gets snow here.
  23. pasnownut
    GFS....yeah you can laugh at that one CMC qpf distribution sounds close to euro AI??? Huhh Regardless...plenty of time for changes that will happen, for better or worse.
  24. pasnownut
    cliff notes/summary please?
  25. pasnownut
    Yeah based on 500mb flow, safe or too safe is more likely for this one. I 80 souther special in the makings with northers still getting warning level. Only about 19 more model runs to go....lol
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