pasnownut

so far 6z's largely held serve but Icon has us southers sniffin and seein taint. Regardless of antecedent cold, the lack of 50/50 is possibly why, but my hopes is that as CAD which is often stronger than modelled, will give the late correction S as we near go time will hopefully bring southers back. LIke others have stated, i'd be ok w/ a more strung out/less pronounced deal. Would like to see the quicker secondary pop as well, but thats wishcasting and doesnt really count disco wise. IMO that'd be a byproduct of a more strung out deal. today is make it or break it day IMO. I'll be on the road much of it, but will be watchin as best i can.

sno maps for cmc also give us southers a little more wiggle room. Trend was a good one for now. ttfn

cmc at 96 pops secondary 75 miles off s jerzy coast I'm right on the taint line, but I'd likely be pingin. wraps up at 102 is not bad either, but not GFS....my new love (well for the next 6 hrs anyway) to whomever is on the night shift....keep ahold of the wheel. gnight all

CMC at 90 has 1003 primary slightly n of 12z and is in southern ohio. warm nose is there

at the minimum, this one gives us southers a little breathing room, cause we were feeling the heat earlier today. if this is a byproduct of the new data being ingested, keep eatin what your eatin GFS

primary was less of an issue adn secondary was just perfectly placed adn takes a more tucked track NE.

at 114 shes wrappin up, a 36 hr all snow event. bombs away baby

at 102 - 24hrs in and still lots more to come verbatim this could be what weve been waiting for

at 96 secondary prime position and tucket. warm nose was cut off yall r gonna like this.......

at 90 GFS notably more amped qpf field HP up north 1037 vs 1034 prior slp pops 100 east of hatterus warm nose is small but there.

Icon also notably S wrt best snows now through lower susqu valley and into northern MD. Guessin 75 mile tick S and thats a sizeable tick

shouldnt they be called snowcane hunters in winter?

ICON also snows till mid mornin monday....verbatim. nice start for 0z's lets hope for more good ones.

ICON did not dissapoint, and stopped chuggin the warm skunk beer from the moldy stein. Just a tick better, but better wrt thermal intrusion from primary and slp slilghtly weaker. LNS held on as all snow.

found this read interesting from CTP afternoon disco KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing odds for heavy snow and moderate to major winter storm impacts Saturday night through Sunday Confidence continues to increase in the potential for heavy snow and moderate to major winter storm impacts across central PA this weekend. As is often the case, the primary model uncertainty differences center around the interaction between the northern and southern branches of the jet stream which will ultimately steer the storm track and associated placement of winter wx/max snowfall. Latest models have doubled-down on the northward trend that was very evident in the previous 21/00Z model cycle. Big ? remains will that trend hold or will there be a reversion back to the south. What we know at this juncture: 1. Ptype should be all snow as arctic air remains locked in place 2. Most likely timing for heavy snow is Saturday night through Sunday night 3. Odds of >6" and >12" of snow have trended higher (maximized over south central/southeast PA) with an increasing risk for moderate to major winter storm impacts this weekend What we don`t know yet: 1. Exactly when, where and how much snow will fall

my point was that it's NOT going to cut. Strung out and less amped means not cutting west of us.

I guess the summary for HH GFS.... not gonna cut it

gfs less consolidated/strung out and suppressed

as event approaches, its running into a 1042mb H, and while it does get nudged NE, antecedent cold coupled w/ that should hold ground for most of the duration. If it ends as sleet...fine, thats just a snowpack densifier.

some of our more notable events have a transfer just below M/D line, and like JB always said, for the best snows ya gotta smell the rain. While I dont feel well smell any rain, we may hear it...pinger style. I'm still hoping we can keep the progressive look w/ less WAA worries. Just a nice clean snow event...please n thx.

NAM's will be close to joining the party in a bit. Hoping they help and not hurt us.

and on behalf of the B string, some of us have shared that same point - this has a more progressive tilt that runs into heavy antecedent cold dome, so while taint is a possibility, this is the kind of event that being east of the apps insulates us from those worries. Now if that cutoff stalls and digs more in the future, well then I guess taint could make a run deeper into central Pa. if trough goes more neg tilt. Downer is what Mt Joy suggested, we went from suppressed to primary trying to cut, with 3 days to go. Like you said, CAD is stoudt and should do its thing. We hope.

Just went through Euro panels and basically same SLP with a touch more WAA west of apps, but much the same as 0z in the end. CAD is a thing of beauty and hopefully our keys to the snowy promise land.

I'm only out to 96 on pivotal....my waiting/wondering about the warm nose is over. I'll fast forward to where you are at and call it a win.

Ukie was a step back from 0z for sure. Had time to look it over. Camps forming Ukie/CMC vs IKON/GFS/EURO well at least some foreigners still agree w/ us.