pasnownut

BTW, i saw 17 deg at my house and 15 deg on car thermo in a little town called Rothsville (about 2 miles from my place). 22-25 was range coming into Etown (as snow got deeper as well). Beauty of a ride to work.

Happy belated bud! Beer stuck in snow is a great thing!!

I'm reading your posts and can see some of your logic/reasoning, but I'll say that you are 1 stall away in phase 6 from potentially eating a crap ton of crow....especially since the AO/NAO are not showing overwhelming signals to help your case. Mind you, I think that as they trend better coupled w/ prime climo and ridging showing up in Scandanavia it should help, and make your suggestions may have merit. While I/we dont know much about you....speaking in absolutes as you tend to do doesn't often bode well.....even for the best of the best. Just a suggestion.

just had both sleds out to check out the work I did on them. My eyeball says more like 3.5" here as there was plenty under my equipment and not really scratching through. then took dog for a walk through the fields to enjoy it a little more. Good stuff. Congrats York crew. Sounds like you are the winners.

Yep. Probably 3-4 years ago changes were made.

Intensity picking up here in Akron. wish me luck. Gonna need it. 2” eyeballing here.

Nice hat. Have one quite similar.

Agreed. Lobes of cold running to the north with well timed vorts to the south can lead to multiple events like today. Pac flood if the ridge rolls over would suck arse. tts not a sustained cold pattern but one that give chances for snow. In a year like this, thats better than nothing.

Just got home. Etown definitely had better rates. They have a whack at 4" IMO. Here in Akron/Ephrata, we may be at 1.5. Nowing nicely but we need some thumpin rates in the next 2 hours, but in truth, the Messo's have nailed this one so far wrt accums (base on reports), so if the pivot happens as modeled, we will not see more than 2". I'm still happy as a lark. Happy for all who cashed in.

thats exactly what i heard on news while at lunch....thats when i chuckled and made my beer bet with my lunchmate as i knew we'd be getting a short duration thumping. He has lost so many bets w/ me over the years (hes a half empty glass kinda guy sometimes). almost makes it too easy...lol

Our driver just came back and said "its a mess".. nuff said.

I saw that and hope your right. Every extra flake we can salvage.

Yeah its ripping nicely here in ETown. Everything is white....roads included. Thanks to good rates....we overcame edit....the road i can see has caved....

Dude I’m glad your realistic. No better way to be. It’s repetitive crankiness sans weather discussion that triggers/d us die hard snow hounds. all good bud. Enjoy your flakes today. They will be gone by Friday.

Positive takeaway is that the LR consensus is now bouncing around, which we know implies potential change. Scandy ridging seems to be showing up more consistently, which implies a change upstairs. PSU's concern sure is a valid one, but as he and some of us have stated for a few weeks, there are multiple indices to consider in the LR guidance, so worrying about 1 (albeit a potentially big one) still doesnt mean we can't overcome so long as other players show up.

Yeah, I'd place my chips with them as well. Getting steadier here, but still has a way to go to get interesting. I just won a beer bet w/ a salesrep that is a PIAA official about tonights games being cancelled. He said no way and hour ago.... Now I'm deciding on what beer I'm ordering when we go out......#win

Really really light snowflakes starting to fall here in Etown. Good luck everyone.

He's like a champion bird dog..... for snow. keep sniffen em out bud.

Now THATS the Bubbler we all know and love

Unfortunately this one "wasn't for you". Dont worry, I live on the other side of that, so i know all too well how that feels. Maybe next one likes you more. Say what you will, but I'd trade places with you in a heartbeat. I LOVE Lyco and would live there in a heartbeat. Ever since college it had me.

If one looks over nooners so far, the guy who really needs to worry about getting jipped...... is me. based on LP evolution best forcing shows cashtown taking all the marbles again, and then Lanco snow dome goes into full effect. Nam's and GFS see this. Could just be noise, but....it has my attention. I think most here are going to enjoy a nice interlude between the episodes of ugliness.

as i posted yesterday, ENS guidance it starting to open doors for the way out of this crappy regime. Still concerned about a few things, but seeing the Aleutian and Scandy ridging changes gives hope that a new regime will be coming once we get beyond 10 days. Still a long ways out, so caution is definitely warranted.

yessir

Based on model consensus, I think slippy PM commute is a given. At T-6 hours to onset, I'm not sure enough can go wrong for a true miss for much of CTP/LSV. I wouldnt be suprisded to see nooners tick a bit S (based on years of model watching), but that still keeps most in the game (except maybe IPT). Thats just a hunch though. One of the nice things about this storm, is that its evolution has been similar to what we are traditionally used to, as it crept back to us inside 72hrs...which happens quite frequently.

Not worried about the warmth. DP's are low and while we may "lose" a bit of snow early on while column cools, your second bullet should "fix" that. Waaayyy down here in the LSV we MIGHT get a little bit of white rain, but I'd think it very minimal.