pasnownut

I'm hoping/thinking everything you just stated as well. In truth, , you have a legit chance of this verifying just as you wish. Seeing the frozen lines continue to creep South gives hope to minimal non frozen (except for maybe far S/SW crew (and they are rather close to predominantly frozen events....just less snow and more ice Can you give me the Geenie lamp for the 1/25 event??

18z kuchera 0z kuchera

I’ve said it for days....wrt this system thermal profiles will determine what your backyard gets. Storm has been rather consistent in where it’s going. We still have 48 hrs to see how CAD and antecedent cold factor in. Systems like this can surprise as we approach game time. way too early to call anyone’s backyard.

Likely yes but “snowfall” on NAM is hard to distinguish. Voyager sits in a much more favorable location being northeast of the LSV. and that doesn’t mean he’s a big winner here, but 0z was rather similar with qpf distribution. that’s my point.

Keep wishing it away and you may end up right.....but no it didnt

But man....if only they were. GFS is much the same....ridin the line gang.

If trends continue, I think Trainers 2-4" is money and I'd bet ALL of Sauss's on it.

First happy hour run made me happy...and want a beer. As stated by many of us many times....with storms like this....small differences can make notably better (or worse) outcomes. Plenty of time for more "adjustments". We are a couple more tics away from a primarily frozen event. Surface LP came in a tad weaker which shows up in critical layers, as warm nose gets cut off a bit. and this is just me looking for fun and to see what trends are showing. No forecast whatsoever. Thats MAG's job.

They should be concerned. Let me remind everyone that while it’s fun to browse other forums (I do it as well and have many good convos down there), but the MA is often vastly different to what’s happening here. “I read it somewhere so it’s happening” doesn’t necessarily apply. I’d much rather be up here than down there for this event.

well....thats debatable.... but we'll share what we've got for ya. edit - referencing my own personal updates btw

also, in my mind, I'm hoping for a weaker/less wound up system, as it becomes more overruning and while qpf would suffer a bit, it would help to save thermal profiles for us. Something to watch.

12z NAM ticked a bit stronger w/ cold at critical layers. Look at 700/850's as well as surface maps and you'll see it reflects more frozen. Its a small step, but it wouldnt take much to keep CTP in a nice transitional winter storm look.

exactly. The unfortunate thing is that this storm evolution is similar to how it looked a couple days ago, but subtle shifts in thermal profile are what make the difference here, even though they are similar to what we were seeing Monday. Warm nose at 850/925 is what is hurting us for snow/ice, but column is close enough workable that we shouldn't "lose" what we get. Just need to hope we get enough to whiten the ground, as it should stick around for a while. Thats the win I'm hoping for.

Agreed. Those of us that have been doing this for some time, know that 6" was always top bar for true CTP w/ a storm evolution/pattern like this. 3" for MBY has been my guess, and for much of CTP, but Trainers 2/-4 is better as gradient will be likely due to changeover and cold holding in respective spots. If anyone thought hi end possible w/ an 850 LP passing well to our NW and HP on the move....well I'm not sure what to say. It CAN happen, but as soon as we lost the anchored HP look, us realists were hoping to hang onto the cold as long as possible. CAD can over preform here. That's where weather maps become guidance and knowing your climo takes over.

Yeah, peeps need to forget the unicorn run that shows mega hits and realize that it's a shift in the regime that we can only chase in LR guidance. The shift is real, and that's all we can ask for at this juncture.

as you well know, we usually are on the fringe....it's how we roll down here. When earlier outputs had decent snow into DC, thats when I feel "safe". Unfortunately the pattern is just getting re established and there isnt much to "hold the cold- HP anchored in upstate NY or NE. That would really save us w/ this kinda deal. Everything for this event is progressive....cold included. Verbatim, 700's still ok, but we lose 850's. Thats a sleet/zr or yes plain rain (although gut says still brief period of -r look to it before column cools back down as precip winds down. FWIW I still think you should be fine w/ 2-4. with SW to NE progression of best accums. Still happy to see the reset and look forward to the next one.

They are taking a beating in many areas. It sure is sad for any business that relies on snow.....snowmobiling included. ☹️

18z NAM showed a bit less ridging which is what PSU was Sharing this AM wrt GFS and Euro. I’m rooting that scenario on and will deal with whatever comes as it will lessen warm nose intrusion to mids.

What’s funny is that’s it’s probably legit, and I’m too dumb to know better. Ok....back to storm stuff. 0zs incoming and they are the most important run since.... the 18zs

Not that we don’t care.... Just have no friggin clue what your talkin bout pal.

also looks a little better than 12z early on w/ LP. Also a little further south w/ frozen. No nuts kicked here. Some just dont over analyze an op run at 5 days. We look for trends and there really has been little new here. As I stated earlier today, thermal profiles are what are most important, and 18z was a notable improvement at 700/850's. Supports more frozen. Actually I'm quite happy with what i just saw. Nice step for CTP

Id take null vs strong 6 in a heartbeat.....just sayin.

As many times as hes ridden the good ship "ECMWF" to its death, he really takes away from his credibility. Its a great model, but not perfect as we all know too well.

If we can sneak a primarily frozen event in for the first storm of the "pattern change", that is EASILY a win for me (us?).

who cares......... Used to like his reads, but when he got too full of himself....that ended that. Plus he's often wrong.