NavarreDon

000 WTNT44 KNHC 291500 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 The center of Ian has emerged into the western Atlantic Ocean to the north of Cape Canaveral. While satellite images show the system is becoming a hybrid cyclone, with frontal features outside of the core of Ian, the winds from multiple sources are notable. Velocity data from NWS Doppler radar indicate maximum winds of about 70-75 kt at 10,000 ft over land, and sustained winds of about 55 kt were recorded in the Daytona Beach area earlier this morning. These data support a higher initial intensity, now 60 kt for this advisory. The storm is moving northeastward at about 8 kt. Ian has stubbornly gone east of the track forecast for the past couple of days and has moved back over water faster than expected. A mid-level shortwave trough moving southward across the southern United States should turn Ian northward overnight and north-northwestward on Saturday. The official track forecast is shifted to the east, consistent with the latest consensus guidance. Ian should move over the Gulf Stream tonight and tomorrow for a longer period of time than previously anticipated, which should maintain Ian's central convection. Additionally, an increased pressure gradient on the northwestern side from a stationary front near the southeastern US, should provide a boost to the wind speeds on that side of the storm. We now expect Ian to become a hurricane again by this evening. As the system approaches South Carolina, Ian should maintain this intensity, and Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the entire coast of South Carolina. This scenario is consistent with the global and regional hurricane model guidance. It is worth noting that Ian is forecast to have atypical structure when it nears the southeastern United States, and strong winds will extend well ahead of the center, even on the northwestern side. .

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Congrats to the men & women @ the NHC! .

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000 WTNT64 KNHC 281910 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 310 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IAN MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ian made landfall along the southwestern coast of Florida near Cayo Costa around 305 PM EDT (1905 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ian's maximum sustained winds were estimated to be near 150 mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 940 mb (27.75 inches). SUMMARY OF 310 PM EDT...1910 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 82.2W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.75 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake/Papin/Beven/Stevenson .

000 WTNT64 KNHC 281901 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 300 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ONGOING... A Weatherflow station at Tarpin point in Cape Coral reported sustained winds of 77 mph (124 km/h) with a gust up to 118 mph (190 km/h). A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish Pass, Florida, recently reported a pressure of 942 mb (27.81 inches). SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 82.2W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF FT MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake/Beven/Papin .

Landfall should be any minute, my guess would be North Captiva Island. .

Severe studios live web cam on Fort Myers Beach. .

Reminiscent of Michael, TBX shows the core in the best shape I’ve seen all morning. .

Landfall? .

South central Broward county in between Hollywood & Pembroke Pines. .

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Here is a screenshot of my PWS. It clearly backs up what you’re saying. Lowest DP since last May. .

I’m a bit confused, is this initialized from its current position? It has Ian moving E of N then N before a NNW motion .

Looks like Destin FL off of tidbits to me. .

Keep the pbp coming Skip, I’m at work. .

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Completely agree! We have a family reunion planed in your neck of the woods (Riverview) right in the storm timeline. The aftermath of a system is a royal pain but deep down we want to experience it. .

Not a big fan of the last 2 GFS runs. Navarre looks like ground zero! Thankfully it's early in the game and changes should be plentiful.

Close to or record high temps forecast along the northern gulf coast over the next few days. Low 90’s along the coast & mid to upper 90’s inland. Here is my NWS pinpoint: Today Sunny, with a high near 91. East wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 74. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming north after midnight. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 92. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Thursday Night Clear, with a low around 73. West wind around 10 mph becoming north after midnight. Friday Sunny, with a high near 90. North wind 5 to 10 mph. .

18Z GFS is further west on this run. At this point anywhere from LA down to the FL Keys should have an eyebrow raised. .

Agreed, will they do post analysis & if so wonder what it’ll lead to? .