NavarreDon

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): Satellite images and surface observations indicate that showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized while surface pressures are gradually falling. If these trends continue, advisories will likely be issued on this system later today or tonight while it moves slowly eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. It is still too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this system. The NOAA Gulfstream jet is en route to sample the environment over the Gulf this afternoon and Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi .

New video by Dr. Cowan .

Good news from MOB…. https://x.com/nwsmobile/status/2107184041338306801?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

This could get interesting regardless of strength if it’s not a fast mover. I’ve already had 12.69” (PWS) this month alone. Keeping my eyes on it for sure. .

https://x.com/tropicaltidbits/status/2094626737204466099?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Welcome to 2026 TS Edouard! .

https://x.com/tropicaltidbits/status/2094534882815082520?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Nice call on the cherry, 70% on the 7pm CDT outlook. .

That makes sense, what are the possibilities of going straight to TD at some point.

I’ve learned to trust the crew at the NHC about jumping the gun. That said I’m not calling for it, but all the visuals & ascat passes say that they could issue a special for PTC. Nice diurnal blow up starting now. .

Bertha might look the best I’ve seen her yet! Maybe a center reformation nearer the convection?

We almost certainly had sustained winds pushing 40 with higher gusts between 2 & 3 this afternoon in FWB. Very little rain as expected on the N side due to the shear. I will say I was taken back by the wind speed. Things are calming rapidly now as expected. NHC did well extending the TS warning eastward earlier today. .

OBS from Fort Walton Beach, sustained winds of 25 mph with some higher gusts. Spotty bands of light precip. Typical set up as to when the bands move thru it drags the wind down to the surface with it. .

Really great obs, quite frankly in a high storm year we all probably wouldn’t pay much attention to this storm. Bertha isn’t the prettiest, but she may be one of the few options to take home this year. .

NHC agrees, we have TS Bertha. .