Terpeast

Ok so maybe that’s not it. Maybe it’s down to the simplest answer staring right at us. As the arctic warms faster than the rest of the planet, the finite source of cold air becomes… even more finite. However, as the N-S temperature gradient becomes smaller, we still get blocking, maybe even moreso than before. Sometimes that helps us produce epic years like 09-10. Other times, because we have a smaller and more finite source of cold air, it hurts us by linking with the SER. Maybe that’s why Chuck has been rooting for a +nao lately, just to blunt that SER down.

@psuhoffman I wanted to continue our discussion after your long post about the 1960s, but my brain is starting to check out from all this. But just one thing. With the common denominator in the 60s not being enso or mjo or the pacific, but persistent negative height anomalies in the west/central atlantic, I would think that is almost the mirror opposite of the SER/WAR we have now. I’m curious about low ACE <> WAR correlation, and whether the 60s was a higher than average hurricane activity decade. Would be interesting to look into ACE for that period while you’re at it. And if the upcoming nino also suppresses hurricane activity this year, and there IS a correlation with the WAR, I’m not sure how it’s going to help us next year either. Too strong of a nino, or too east based, it’ll probably lead to an above normal likelihood of another 97-98.

Try Vietnam. Last year it snowed up to 2 feet at the summit of Vietnam’s highest mountain, sitting just north of 10,000 ft. It’s in Vietnamese, but there’s plenty of photos here: https://baotintuc.vn/anh/tuyet-roi-day-bao-phu-fansipan-ngay-28-tet-20210209101754824.htm

Looking good for us! Wife is excited. How do you think the roads are going to be up there Friday afternoon say between 2-4 pm?

Well ya better start believing it because the sooner you accept such an outcome the easier it’ll get.

Color me surprised… not. I knew this would happen. Not trying to be a deb, and you all know I want snow as much as the next weenie. If we do get a good snow, I would go full Jebman on you guys. But tis not our year.

For sure, I would have done the same. Early on in the season, I was like “I have low expectations because its a nina, but it can’t be that bad” Now? “Ok, it is THAT bad” After we head up to deep creek this weekend and at minimum, see some snow on the ground and take in the winter wonderland, I’m moving on. I’m out.

Rain/sleet mix in ashburn. Seeing ice pellets on my deck.

We’re losing the window on the ensembles, too. Just look at the trends.

Still at range, we don’t want it on top of us past day 7.

Cloudy and cold. Little or no precip in ashburn

And for that, we have to kill the SER/WAR. As long as that is there, it’s very hard to lock in a 50/50

Really informative, thanks for putting this together. Busy day at work today, but if I could add some of my thoughts to this, I’ll do it in the other thread. Thanks again.

Okay this is interesting because the 1960s were insane - why? Was that a window when the pac temporarily become more favorable combined with a -nao? Or did the 1960s do well DESPITE a hostile pac? Was there some other factor involved other than the nao?

Go by NWS. D0-1: short range D2-3: med range D3-5: long range D5+: fantasy range

Must have looked at the runs that didn’t show this. I didn’t see. So I guess we just look up to D7 and disregard anything past that.

Other than h5 maps, I check mslp in the ensemble means. There’s a faint signal of lower pressure to the SE with high pressure to the NW. I have not seen a signal like this all winter. Not even for the december cutter or the recent Jan rainstorms. First I’ve seen this. Window feb 3-7. Usual disclaimer - just one run, could change, blah blah, just something to keep an eye on other than h5 and 850s

From LWX: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... From Friday through the weekend and into early next week, the hemispheric pattern does not appreciably change. More specifically, this features an upper ridge over the eastern Pacific, another high near the Bahamas, and a deep upper low to the north of Hudson Bay. Split flow is evident in the guidance which carry waves across the western U.S. as well as within the cyclonic longwave flow regime over the central/eastern U.S. At this juncture, there is little to no interactions with these streams which is often the recipe for a more pronounced winter weather threat. You can tell that LWX is a little baffled at how this winter is going, huh?

I’m not even looking at op runs beyond 7 days. Ensembles only. And GEFS hasn’t changed much at all from run to run.

Just saw a mosquito flying outside. At this rate, we're going to have to change the state bird to that before summer.

Yeah, with a better pac and colder source region, it’s not a torchy look. But storms probably still cut.

LR ens showing the SER flexing again at end of range. Again.

Now I get why 18z is called happy hour

I’ll hold you to it. You can’t go wrong with sending me a belgian dubbel or better yet, a quadrupel. I’m a reasonable man - I accept mail deliveries.

Wow so cool. My mom got around 10” give or take in Vienna and from the photos she sent me, it looked like a very cold storm. Appeared to be windy, too. I would have never guessed there would have been temp issues here. Did anyone verify blizzard criteria then?