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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Yeah, I didn’t intend for anyone to read as such into what I said about Dec. Nino winters tend to lean backloaded anyway. What does concern me is the warm ssts across the board. Where and how can we get enough cold air if our average 850s is -4 in mid winter, and ssts are +2-4 above normal? Pretty small margin for error there.
  2. Terpeast
    I’m fine with punting Dec to get a good Jan and feb, but this kind of map is exactly what I’m concerned about with ssts on fire
  3. Terpeast
    yeah, thanks to those pesky volcanoes, we’d lose feb 87 if it happened now
  4. Terpeast
    A very real possibility. Just look at the northern hemisphere sst map
  5. Terpeast
    Second animation, thermocline appears to be pushing up in 1+2
  6. Terpeast
    I think the subsurface has bottomed out for now. It might warm a bit again
  7. Terpeast
    Thanks, I see JJ was 0.3 while ONI was 0.8. If it's tracking 0.5 lower, then it should be ~0.8 now while ONI/3.4 are around 1.3. And look how strong the La Nina was last year according to the MEI, it peaked at -2.1. I was amazed at how strong the nina's "grip" on the atmospheric pattern last winter despite the ONI being a pedestrian ~-1.0.
  8. Terpeast
    I like the MEI better. Where can I get the latest values? The time series I have only goes up to April
  9. Terpeast
    Maybe none. I thought it would have an influence, but the correlation is 0.12 between IOD and AO, and -0.16 vs NAO. Could be a lag effect that I'm missing here. I was excited about the IOD at first yesterday when bluewave talked about the potential effect it had on the 19-20 season, but after digging into the data myself, I just don't see a slam dunk effect by the IOD.
  10. Terpeast
    The smoke probably suppressed temps today. IAD only made it to 94 with a forecasted high of 97. Mby only 92
  11. Terpeast
    The one that goes back to 1948 is still v1. I’m assuming that there is no v2 pre 1979 because it incorporates satellite data.
  12. Terpeast
    If I'm understanding your post correctly, you're saying that as we progress into winter (with CC) the jet and AAM both get stronger because of a stronger temp gradient between the tropics and polar region? I would think we'd actually get a "lazier" and more meridional jet stream. Isn't that what happened last winter? Just that the meridional structure didn't land where we wanted, and CA happened to get the jackpot of it. Am I misunderstanding you?
  13. Terpeast
    Thanks for pointing that out. Going through the monthly forecasts from now till January, it appears that METEO and ECMWF are the most aggressive with the +IOD, but all models have them peaking in Oct-Nov, then backing off in December to a neutral/weak positive by January. This is pretty consistent with a mild December / start to the winter, then turning colder into Jan-Feb.
  14. Terpeast
    I don’t pay attention to the BoM model due to its known warm bias
  15. Terpeast
    Anyone know of a MEI v2 dataset that goes back to 1950? I know it only goes back to 1979, but I wonder if anyone has adjusted MEI v1 data from 1950-1978 to reflect MEI v2?
  16. Terpeast
    Interesting! I hadn’t come across that. When I do my winter outlook, I will factor the IOD into it. Right now it appears to be weakly positive, no? CPC forecast maps re-warms the WPAC/MC pool leading into winter, so that may bring the IOD to neutral-ish.
  17. Terpeast
    True, but if I had to punt one month to get a good winter, it would be Dec. 2009-10 was special though
  18. Terpeast
    Might suppress atlantic basin activity (again) as we go into September
  19. Terpeast
    Mostly but not always. Dec 2002 was good. Good question, though. I’ll check IAD data when I get back home
  20. Terpeast
    Great writeup @40/70 Benchmark. Just one little nitpicky thing - you used a temp graph from 2007-08 when talking about 2006-07. Might want to swap them out.
  21. Terpeast
    For it to not be backloaded, the forcing would have to stay west. Like where it is now, and stay there for the next 7 months
  22. Terpeast
    One thing I noticed in the weekly cpc enso updates is that their model sst forecast graphics have consistently showed the WPAC cooling into the autumn, and then warming back up into the winter months. If it pans out like this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see VP/forcing migrate to the east into fall (watch the forum write this winter off as another ratter)… and then migrate back west. Could mean a torchy first half with an interesting second backloaded half.
  23. Terpeast
    0.92” on today! More than I expected
  24. Terpeast
    Pouring!
  25. Terpeast
    Models seem to be doubling down on dateline forcing and active STJ. If it were April, I’d be dismissive. But now that it’s August, it’s probably time to start paying attention
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