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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    I don’t pay attention to the BoM model due to its known warm bias
  2. Terpeast
    Anyone know of a MEI v2 dataset that goes back to 1950? I know it only goes back to 1979, but I wonder if anyone has adjusted MEI v1 data from 1950-1978 to reflect MEI v2?
  3. Terpeast
    Interesting! I hadn’t come across that. When I do my winter outlook, I will factor the IOD into it. Right now it appears to be weakly positive, no? CPC forecast maps re-warms the WPAC/MC pool leading into winter, so that may bring the IOD to neutral-ish.
  4. Terpeast
    True, but if I had to punt one month to get a good winter, it would be Dec. 2009-10 was special though
  5. Terpeast
    Might suppress atlantic basin activity (again) as we go into September
  6. Terpeast
    Mostly but not always. Dec 2002 was good. Good question, though. I’ll check IAD data when I get back home
  7. Terpeast
    Great writeup @40/70 Benchmark. Just one little nitpicky thing - you used a temp graph from 2007-08 when talking about 2006-07. Might want to swap them out.
  8. Terpeast
    For it to not be backloaded, the forcing would have to stay west. Like where it is now, and stay there for the next 7 months
  9. Terpeast
    One thing I noticed in the weekly cpc enso updates is that their model sst forecast graphics have consistently showed the WPAC cooling into the autumn, and then warming back up into the winter months. If it pans out like this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see VP/forcing migrate to the east into fall (watch the forum write this winter off as another ratter)… and then migrate back west. Could mean a torchy first half with an interesting second backloaded half.
  10. Terpeast
    0.92” on today! More than I expected
  11. Terpeast
    Pouring!
  12. Terpeast
    Models seem to be doubling down on dateline forcing and active STJ. If it were April, I’d be dismissive. But now that it’s August, it’s probably time to start paying attention
  13. Terpeast
    Luckily my area wasn’t as bad as northern MD, l’ve seen a few trees and a street lamp down in my neighborhood. That’s enough to justify the watch, had the wind been a few mph stronger that might have had been enough to cause a lot more damage
  14. Terpeast
    My hypothesis is that with CC and warmer SSTs overall, ninas will become stronger (relative ONI) while ninos become weaker.
  15. Terpeast
    You've come a long way.
  16. Terpeast
    This winter better deliver, or we’re looking at 3 ratters in a row. I want to be joking, but idk
  17. Terpeast
    Short drive around Ashburn, lots of large tree branches down
  18. Terpeast
    1.03” yesterday, biggest daily rain total since, I dunno… February?
  19. Terpeast
    Obv northern MD along the m/d line got the worst of it. It seems some closer to dc metro reported that it wasn’t much of a storm for them. While I lucked out in that there’s no damage to my property, things did get quite intense for about 10 minutes. See that W just east of Leesburg? I’m right south of that. Total 1.03” today
  20. Terpeast
    Got a good thrashing with maybe 60-65 mph winds with very heavy rain. First severe event imby of the year
  21. Terpeast
    Leesburg being tornado warned ashburn here - very dark clouds, no wind yet. Calm before the ???
  22. Terpeast
    Seeing some weakness in the line directly to the west of me. Is this where I say uh oh, I’m about to get burned again? Then again, the shear and dynamics are so strong that it’s not remotely similar to previous setups
  23. Terpeast
    Some mid-level cloud cover coming in. What's really interesting is the different directions mid vs. low level clouds are moving... the former is moving westerly, and the latter southerly. That's shear.
  24. Terpeast
    Radar already showing storms congealing into a line even before crossing the blue ridge
  25. Terpeast
    I'm looking at that same cell from my window. Cloud top height must be insane if I can see it from this far out.
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