Terpeast

I’m thinking the same. But i’ll take anything before the 10th!

Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think the Dec 29-Jan 5 window favors EC snowstorms (apart from lighter snows that don’t pop up in modeling until less than 5 days). But once the +PNA develops after Jan 5 (if it does), all bets are off.

Yep, that’s all we can take away at this moment. Jan 5-12 is still what I’m cautiously optimistic about, and the pattern still looks good after. There may be a couple/few days where we relax or warm up, but we have not lost this yet.

Gefs 18z a bit better than 12z, more like 06z

The 18z gfs wasn’t that bad. A “disaster” run would be a torch with 5 to 10 C 850s with a constant stream of western cutters. This one always had the boundary close or just south of us with some shots at us. A couple of those shots were a bit warm, but at that range, it wouldn’t take much at all. 500s look good.

All ensembles slowly build a +PNA ridge between 240-360 hrs. AK vortex quickly fades and retros west

I echo this sentiment. Lots of good analysis in here.

We already had a Jan 2025 last year, so let’s roll the dice with Jan 2026

Hopefully it’ll improve the mood in their subforum.

I’ll let Ji handle this one

I don’t usually start paying attention to thermals until less than a week out. Models don’t do as good a job with low level temperatures compared to 500mb beyond a week. It’s a well known warm bias with the euro weeklies.

Weeklies trended even colder 2nd half of Jan, held for the first half.

We do now have a few trackable events in the Jan 5-12 period (plus the NYD clipper). Even though they’re not showing what we want right now, there’s a lot of time for these to trend in our favor. It’s definitely not a shit the blinds pattern, but we need some luck on our side.

Based on the radar i don’t think its over. But i think that dry slot robbed nyc of max potential with this storm

Now for mby, I did get a trace of ice. Had some pieces of ice on my deck furniture covering.

That’s a big dry slot. Let’s see if precip from Scranton can make it to nyc

I can relate to that. I was on one of my work trips years back and I witnessed a 3’+ lake effect storm in western NY (an hour SW of buffalo). It was awesome, but it just didn’t have the same feeling of getting a home grown blizzard around here.

Hard to say. Warm ups have been getting muted as they get closer in time. Storm tracks get pushed south (like it did for NYC today). It's just too chaotic to get a handle on it all until we get inside 120 hours.

Like I said yesterday, models aren't going to pick up discrete threats in the Jan 5-12 timeframe until we get to New Years and that's why the models look dry and "boring". Only now the Euro shows something for Jan 6. It won't verify verbatim probably, but something is there. I didn't think it would show a threat this soon. OTOH, 12z GFS has 2-3 cutters (which probably won't verify verbatim either).

It just looks wet outside. 32/22. I haven't bothered to step outside to check if there's any sleet or glaze.

Yeah, that's a legit question. While things are still TBD, my answer is that in this case, it's not just low heights over AK, but the aleutian high is getting broken down with lower heights over the aleutians. This leads to a +PNA ridge over the west. If you animate that run from 300-360, you'll see the +PNA ridge building. Plus with that ridge, that extremely cold air over AK/Yukon will get shoved SE towards the eastern US albeit with some modification. Imagine instead if the aleutian high stayed, and the AK vortex helps dig a trough over the west, then yes that would be bad. But the models aren't showing that.

Yea something ain’t right with the WB algorithm. Euro 2mt maps from the source are more like NN for our backyards and a couple degrees below for the eastern GL and NE.

Still looking good for Jan 5-12 give or take a couple of days. PNA and NAO ridges building out west towards end of all three dynamic model ensembles. They won’t pick up on discrete threats to track at this time. Smaller and moderate events often don’t show up until within 5 days. And Merry Christmas to all!

This warm up was projected to be more central/east, and ended up further west.

Just saw the euro weeklies this morning, basically a hold from yesterday. Starting to think our best timeframe for a coastal storm is the second week of January (more like Jan 5-12 ish). Nothing trackable yet, but something for us to watch, particularly precip anomalies across the Gulf South through our area to the NE along with ample cold air.