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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Wow. 11-15 day model forecasts have been terrible this fall/winter. Terrible.
  2. Terpeast
    That would shorten the torch to just 5 days instead of 7-10+ like previous runs were showing.
  3. Terpeast
    More than that.
  4. Terpeast
    Maybe I wouldn’t say “the best” but it did very well. Top 3
  5. Terpeast
    KIAD had 26.6” in 18-19, pretty solid winter
  6. Terpeast
    Vaguely recall PSU mentioned going skiing somewhere around this time or something
  7. Terpeast
    Looking ahead to the second half of the month - with a map like this after the ~5 day torch in the near-medium term, Jan might finish a couple degrees AN. But if those last two weeks come to fruition like this, we could have some interesting events to track without the suppression risks. Not the time to bail on this winter just yet.
  8. Terpeast
    Yes, the pattern is very progressive and volatile. Anything could happen. Before, we’ve seen these 60 degree days turn into snowfalls the next day or two. This could happen here.
  9. Terpeast
    EPS shows NN temps (at least at 850mb) starting Jan 11 onwards. As a reminder, our Jan climo 850s are at -3 to -4, so it can still snow (or mix) if 850s are slightly AN. GEFS/GEPS is warmer and more borderline, and delays the cold by a day or two. We want to root for Euro to be right.
  10. Terpeast
    As would I
  11. Terpeast
    Don’t encourage him…
  12. Terpeast
    New 12z gefs trending for more NS interaction on the 4th. New run Old 12z run yesterday
  13. Terpeast
    12/5: 1.5” 12/14: 1.0” 1/1: 0.2” Total: 2.7”
  14. Terpeast
    Woke up to a surprise dusting! Yes i slept through it not expecting anything (stayed up late watching stranger things). been a long time to see a surprise snow.
  15. Terpeast
    Happy new year!
  16. Terpeast
    Happy birthday!
  17. Terpeast
    Nam may have ticked south, but based on 500mb vort it took one step closer to the euro. Northern stream vort is sharper and more south. The ss vort shifted south too, but if it stays north like 18z, then there will be more interaction.
  18. Terpeast
    Actually I agree with you. The NYC event trended north in the last day or so, putting the max just NE of the city instead of directly over and south of it.
  19. Terpeast
    When the models were showing a great pattern over the next 10 days and beyond a few days back, it was showing this system but it was way suppressed to the south because of the cold press. Now that the block is falling apart, the cold press isn't as much, allowing this system to come up north. Hopefully we still have enough cold air to snow if the precip comes up that far.
  20. Terpeast
    Seems everything has shifted 10 days later. I have a feeling models will turn colder at day 10+ by friday.
  21. Terpeast
    I’ve experienced one just SE of dunkirk where we got 3 ft, it was great. But that was a long time ago and memories are fading. I want more haha
  22. Terpeast
    I am envious. When the kids are older, we’ll chase Blackwater, wisp, and tug hill are good go-tos.
  23. Terpeast
    You moving there?
  24. Terpeast
    After about 5 days of AN/much AN temps, that -EPO takes us back to NN or below by Jan 12.
  25. Terpeast
    21 in Ashburn
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