Terpeast

We already had a Jan 2025 last year, so let’s roll the dice with Jan 2026

Hopefully it’ll improve the mood in their subforum.

I’ll let Ji handle this one

I don’t usually start paying attention to thermals until less than a week out. Models don’t do as good a job with low level temperatures compared to 500mb beyond a week. It’s a well known warm bias with the euro weeklies.

Weeklies trended even colder 2nd half of Jan, held for the first half.

We do now have a few trackable events in the Jan 5-12 period (plus the NYD clipper). Even though they’re not showing what we want right now, there’s a lot of time for these to trend in our favor. It’s definitely not a shit the blinds pattern, but we need some luck on our side.

Based on the radar i don’t think its over. But i think that dry slot robbed nyc of max potential with this storm

Now for mby, I did get a trace of ice. Had some pieces of ice on my deck furniture covering.

That’s a big dry slot. Let’s see if precip from Scranton can make it to nyc

I can relate to that. I was on one of my work trips years back and I witnessed a 3’+ lake effect storm in western NY (an hour SW of buffalo). It was awesome, but it just didn’t have the same feeling of getting a home grown blizzard around here.

Hard to say. Warm ups have been getting muted as they get closer in time. Storm tracks get pushed south (like it did for NYC today). It's just too chaotic to get a handle on it all until we get inside 120 hours.

Like I said yesterday, models aren't going to pick up discrete threats in the Jan 5-12 timeframe until we get to New Years and that's why the models look dry and "boring". Only now the Euro shows something for Jan 6. It won't verify verbatim probably, but something is there. I didn't think it would show a threat this soon. OTOH, 12z GFS has 2-3 cutters (which probably won't verify verbatim either).

It just looks wet outside. 32/22. I haven't bothered to step outside to check if there's any sleet or glaze.

Yeah, that's a legit question. While things are still TBD, my answer is that in this case, it's not just low heights over AK, but the aleutian high is getting broken down with lower heights over the aleutians. This leads to a +PNA ridge over the west. If you animate that run from 300-360, you'll see the +PNA ridge building. Plus with that ridge, that extremely cold air over AK/Yukon will get shoved SE towards the eastern US albeit with some modification. Imagine instead if the aleutian high stayed, and the AK vortex helps dig a trough over the west, then yes that would be bad. But the models aren't showing that.

Yea something ain’t right with the WB algorithm. Euro 2mt maps from the source are more like NN for our backyards and a couple degrees below for the eastern GL and NE.

Still looking good for Jan 5-12 give or take a couple of days. PNA and NAO ridges building out west towards end of all three dynamic model ensembles. They won’t pick up on discrete threats to track at this time. Smaller and moderate events often don’t show up until within 5 days. And Merry Christmas to all!

This warm up was projected to be more central/east, and ended up further west.

Just saw the euro weeklies this morning, basically a hold from yesterday. Starting to think our best timeframe for a coastal storm is the second week of January (more like Jan 5-12 ish). Nothing trackable yet, but something for us to watch, particularly precip anomalies across the Gulf South through our area to the NE along with ample cold air.

I was looking at the ensembles yesterday, and I agree the Jan 3-8 timeframe is one to watch.

I also remember us getting a clipper after the Jan ice storm, narrow band of snow across the dmv. 2 inches of dry fluffy snow on top of the skating rink. My dad tried driving up the hilly driveway, and he only made it halfway before sliding all the way back down. Wild times then

Once that trough axis moves to just west of us, crazy things can start to happen... watch out for some trackable events then.

Still uncertain though, because the weeklies have been flip flopping. Few days ago, they were hinting at a colder pattern, then they flipped warm the next day. It looked like a zero hope shut the blinds torch through and through. Then they again flipped colder yesterday, and doubled down again today.

At least Webb admitted to the L. I’ll give him that.

I agree with this sentiment. We'll have good and bad windows (we're in the middle of a bad one right now) in this volatile winter. Expect the unexpected seems to be the theme here.

Markets moving on today's euro weeklies. Still would like to see them being more consistent to go all-in on the cold east for Jan.