Terpeast

Oh I thought you were talking about the euro weeklies. I don't expect much from the nao until the SSW + scand ridging take effect and (hopefully) retrogrades over greenland

Which models/forecast periods are you looking at?

Yep, one of those 2-4” stat padders we’ve been lacking until last winter.

After Dec 15 is when I'll start getting excited. Anything before that is gravy.

And imho it's not the speed of the pac jet, it's the placement of the strongest portion of the jet and it's exit region. If the jet is favored equatorward and its exit region is just south of the aleutians, we get ridging over AK and cold air flowing south into the CONUS towards the east.

That last week of December looks mint. Unfortunately it's 5 weeks away Until then, looks seasonable for us (upper 30s mid 40s on average)

All models are going strong into 7. The key will be whether it dies in 7, or pushes into 8 like the above plot does. I'm not convinced that will happen (and bluewave doesn't think it will), but if it does, it will be great for us.

For the MA, phase 7 is a transition phase. It is usually the precursor to big storms. Not always, but some.

0.27"

Fell short of 50 today, high of 49. Felt like winter!

Yes. -50 inches Joking aside, I’m thinking more a 2000-01 / 2017-18 winter here, fast start in december, normal transitory january, then february torch. But if the SSW happens and the aftereffects last long with the lag Chuck keeps mentioning, we may extend the good start to cover 2/3 of the winter season. Won’t take much to get us to climo, with march as a cherry top if we can get anything out of that month (which we haven’t in a long time - we’re due)

Welp, I went even lower than him. I'd be happy to be wrong, in our favor.

Low of 24, coldest so far

28.9

BWI: 11.2” DCA: 9.8” IAD: 13.5” RIC: 5.8” (Tiebreaker) SBY: 8.6”

Nothing yet, hopefully something pops within a couple hours

Thank you for saying the quiet part outloud. I have him on ignore anyways.

I absolutely agree with this. Same for LA and FL getting 10"+ and a 4 degree low soon after. I'm not at all worried about losing the big ones. Just that they might be spaced out in larger intervals instead of every 3-7 years between 1979 and 2016.

Only down to 29.8, thought it’d be 28 or lower

That winter, particularly February, was notable because of a huge noreaster from NJ north, and Mt Washington got 49" in 24 hours, or a total of 91" over 3 days. See 100 hour snowstorm: The 100-Hour Snowstorm of February 1969 | NOAA Climate.gov Another one just before that hit western NC and northern SC with up to 2 feet. There was a thread about it on this very forum: February 1969 Foothills/Piedmont Deep Snowstorm - Southeastern States - American Weather There was almost no noteworthy events for Dec and Jan. With strong greenland blocking and a strong aleutian ridge, it was probably cold and dry along the SE and east, much like a modern La Nina pattern we've been seeing over the last several years - only colder. In a modern climate, probably little or no snow, just a few degrees warmer. Then in Feb, a ridge began to build over the rockies while the greenland block continued, and then those two big storms happened.

With a SSW/weak PV being forecast this month, I checked when the last time we had a SSW in November. 1968. So I looked up the 1968-69 analog, and most of the teleconnections match. -QBO, -PDO, +AMO, etc... except it was a weak nino, not a nina. It was a very cold winter, averaging roughly -5 through DJFM, snowfall was backloaded apart from an early November snow. With this winter being a weak nina, snow might be more front-loaded and may be colder than what seasonal models are depicting, assuming the SSW verifies.

Would you say that the PNA pushing positive despite the +WPO/Pacific marine heat wave is what's behind some of the suppressed storm tracks that gave Louisiana and Florida and SE VA double digit snows? That's just me visualizing the patterns in my head... but I haven't really looked at the PNA data (been heads down with MJO at work lately).

That’s my baby son’s due date…

And the north pacific pattern isn't permanent either. It'll change at some point, maybe back to what it was before the extreme long-duration negative PDO... or take a different form altogether. My wag is that the NE Pac might be next to get a long-duration marine heat wave (selfishly good for us weenies, but disastrous for many ecosystems and livelihoods up and down the western NA continent)

Agreed. As depicted, this is a mountains special, which isn't uncommon in November.