Terpeast

MJO 7 is a transition phase which is usually a precursor to our biggest storms (but not always of course).

Good news, both ens and op models are pushing MJO into 7 by the 20th to 22nd. That will help us later in the month into Feb.

We should root for a slower wave. Cmc trended slower last 3 runs, and 6z gfs (what we want) is slower than 12z gfs. Too fast, and the phase is missed and or too late

Big miller a coastal at 10-11 days out. Borderline rainer verbatim, but it’s something. Very promising Euro more of a miller b skipper

It snowed on my son’s birth date.

Yep. At 8-10 days out, it won’t take much. We’ve seen way bigger changes at upper levels at less than 5 days out. Unlike some certain folks, I don’t care what the surface shows at that range.

HH gfs still trying some shenanigans on the 15th. Big -NAO block. We’re not out of this yet.

Cue the grandpa Simpson door meme.

that's because the 500mb wave is positively tilted on that one. Need a neutral or neg tilt. But at this range it won't take much

That should help us later when the PNA goes negative after a brief spike into + territory.

I'm starting to worry that the Jan 14-17 window is getting can kicked a bit since the 6-10 day eastern trough is getting less strong and the ridging over it is stronger. But the good news is MJO is starting to curve into 7 around day 15. So the pattern change after the 18th is probably real. Still not counting us out for the mid-Jan system, but there could be temp issues east of the BR.

And a lot of misses, still. Looks 50/50 or 40/60 to me.

It seems for now we have two discrete threat windows on the dates you said. I know some are really down on January because the ens snow means are so low, but I'm not. We have chances. Not saying they'll "definitely" pan out though.

Both gfs and euro take a few shots at us after Jan 11. Ensembles look fine.

12z eps / 18z gefs both have a retrograding +pna that becomes -epo. Did this happen a lot in 2013-14, or in more recent la nina winters before 2022? I wasn’t around much except for 2016

Classic +PNA on gefs starting jan 12-13. Pattern supports the OP

Lets see if there’s gefs support for jan 15th

Looks decent to me, and that things haven’t really trended worse at all.

And remember, it only takes one!

For fun, if anyone hasn’t cliff dived yet - 12z euro tries something mid month. Tilt that vort a bit more negative and boom. has ensemble support, too

Haha that’s funny about them asking if you needed help. Did you stay in one place the whole time, or did you move to wherever the band was setting up for the day? I’d love to do this when my second kid is old enough to understand what snow is and how to have fun with it.

Gefs showing a signal on Jan 11-12 for a post-cutter wave that could work for us. Spacing needs some work though

Congrats!

I apologize if I came off as model bashing in the general sense, that wasn't my intention and I can see that my statement was a bit unfair. We've seen incredible advances in modeling both physical and AI, and seeing 0.6-0.8 correlations in 500mb anomalies from 10+ days out is an incredible feat. I only meant that their performance have collectively taken a hit lately in the 11-15 day range especially in the past 5-6 months. In the grand scheme of things, on a global scale, they still perform better than 10+ years ago. But regionally, they have been struggling with the trough/ridge placements such that we're seeing wild swings in our forecasted sensible weather in our back yards. Again, sorry about that.

Wow. 11-15 day model forecasts have been terrible this fall/winter. Terrible.