Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Just saw the euro weeklies this morning, basically a hold from yesterday. Starting to think our best timeframe for a coastal storm is the second week of January (more like Jan 5-12 ish). Nothing trackable yet, but something for us to watch, particularly precip anomalies across the Gulf South through our area to the NE along with ample cold air.
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I was looking at the ensembles yesterday, and I agree the Jan 3-8 timeframe is one to watch.
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I also remember us getting a clipper after the Jan ice storm, narrow band of snow across the dmv. 2 inches of dry fluffy snow on top of the skating rink. My dad tried driving up the hilly driveway, and he only made it halfway before sliding all the way back down. Wild times then
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Once that trough axis moves to just west of us, crazy things can start to happen... watch out for some trackable events then.
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Still uncertain though, because the weeklies have been flip flopping. Few days ago, they were hinting at a colder pattern, then they flipped warm the next day. It looked like a zero hope shut the blinds torch through and through. Then they again flipped colder yesterday, and doubled down again today.
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At least Webb admitted to the L. I’ll give him that.
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I agree with this sentiment. We'll have good and bad windows (we're in the middle of a bad one right now) in this volatile winter. Expect the unexpected seems to be the theme here.
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Markets moving on today's euro weeklies. Still would like to see them being more consistent to go all-in on the cold east for Jan.
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Today's euro weeklies now popping a +PNA with colder trends for the east for the entire forecast period. We'll see if this holds...
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Today's euro weeklies now popping a +PNA with colder trends for the east for the entire forecast period.
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Low of 18, great radiational cooling that overperformed.
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He is lucky to have you!
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If these trends keep up, there will be a lot of pissed off wives come Christmas
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He was calling for a TNH+ pattern with -EPO for the winter not too long ago, maybe a couple of weeks. I do follow him and he gives good background information under the hood, but the latest tweet of his lacked the usual substance and reasoning for a big change is his position/outlook.
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Isn’t Webb living in New Mexico or somewhere like that? I can see why he would be frustrated wrt his backyard snowfall prospects (lack of STJ), but to paint that as “winter’s over” for the entire country/EC is a bit much. Some stretches are gonna suck, others may be decent. I still don’t think this is a one track winter.
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You’re quite the story teller! No cap. I noticed the EPS fading the SE ridge this morning as well. GEFS did the same thing.
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I seem to recall that it did, my 2-month total from Dec 2023 to Jan 2024 was 13” of precip. With canada torched, it was just too warm for snow. Ironically the only snows we got were when the STJ took a break.
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End of both eps and gefs begin to fade the SER, hint of height rises in the west. Large scale features largely the same, though.
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Wdym? All I was saying that I’m waiting until the weeklies are more consistent for at least a few days instead of flip flopping. Only then I’ll think there’s some credibility to their forecasts.
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Add Dec 2022 to that. The holidays was downright arctic. We all know what happened after that.
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Looks a lot different than yesterday. If they are fluctuating this much, it really lowers confidence in the weeklies at this time.
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Happy anniversary!
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25 for the low
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If we’re going to maintain a -WPO, we’ll need the -NAO/-WPO ridge bridge to connect to push the TPV south into Canada making it easier to get a trough in the east.
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As in one strong cutter dumping cold air behind it towards us and suddenly we’re tracking a follow up wave. Could really happen anytime, but I have that pegged in week 2/3 in Jan. Could be sooner.
