Jump to content

Terpeast

Meteorologist
  • Posts

    5,932
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. If the weeklies are correct, we’ll be mostly shielded from the canada torch and then winter ends on Feb 23 (unless march does something crazy)
  2. Just looked at all ensembles this morning. Nothing really changed. Jan 22 never had support. Jan 25-28 window is what they are keying on. I think the warmer rainy cutter scenario is the least likely. Snow/ice storm most likely, with the likelihood of a suppressed system somewhere in between closer to the lower end.
  3. I noticed gfs is trending that wave faster. Agree we need it to slow down a bit
  4. Got a point there. This mornings WWAs came a little late for northern MD
  5. I guess they just disregarded or didn’t even check the latest models that went warmer and cut back on snow accums. Or maybe they didn’t think the new runs were correct.
  6. True, but that means we’re banking on rates to get this to work out for most.
  7. 0z nam a little better for mby, but temps stay at 33-34 during the heaviest precip. Sounding is (wet) snow, but will have a tough time accumulating towards advisory criteria.
  8. 30/27 currently, mostly clear but not that dry
  9. Many of us have become extremely attuned to the possibility of a rug like so many before, that if an ens run loses an inch from 10 days out, they go off the cliff like lemmings
  10. Yeah, I’m def gonna read their AFD to get a feel for what they’re thinking. It’s also sunday, not like its during a rush hour commute.
  11. Wow, that’s bullish. I don’t know if I would have issued a WWA
  12. At least this will be more than I got this morning
  13. Agree with this map, but a little worried about temps just above the sfc. Prob forecasts give mby 40% chance of reaching 1”
  14. love how the ens mean hooks the 1.5+ back into the DMV. Could be another potential overperformer
  15. Yeah, details are up in the air, but both show a ss wave coming up into cold air nearby. That’s something we haven’t seen much of in these parts around here lately.
  16. Yep, I’d lean more on the mesos and even radar as its more of a nowcast situation
  17. Gfs ice storm and euro slider, lets split the difference
  18. 12z gfs is less out here but given low qpf to begin with, its mainly noise. Temps may be cold enough to maintain decent ratios west of the beltway though
  19. Similar amounts here judging from the pic, some whitening in the shortest grass spots.
×
×
  • Create New...