Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Low of 18, great radiational cooling that overperformed.
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He is lucky to have you!
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If these trends keep up, there will be a lot of pissed off wives come Christmas
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He was calling for a TNH+ pattern with -EPO for the winter not too long ago, maybe a couple of weeks. I do follow him and he gives good background information under the hood, but the latest tweet of his lacked the usual substance and reasoning for a big change is his position/outlook.
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Isn’t Webb living in New Mexico or somewhere like that? I can see why he would be frustrated wrt his backyard snowfall prospects (lack of STJ), but to paint that as “winter’s over” for the entire country/EC is a bit much. Some stretches are gonna suck, others may be decent. I still don’t think this is a one track winter.
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You’re quite the story teller! No cap. I noticed the EPS fading the SE ridge this morning as well. GEFS did the same thing.
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I seem to recall that it did, my 2-month total from Dec 2023 to Jan 2024 was 13” of precip. With canada torched, it was just too warm for snow. Ironically the only snows we got were when the STJ took a break.
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End of both eps and gefs begin to fade the SER, hint of height rises in the west. Large scale features largely the same, though.
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Wdym? All I was saying that I’m waiting until the weeklies are more consistent for at least a few days instead of flip flopping. Only then I’ll think there’s some credibility to their forecasts.
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Add Dec 2022 to that. The holidays was downright arctic. We all know what happened after that.
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Looks a lot different than yesterday. If they are fluctuating this much, it really lowers confidence in the weeklies at this time.
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Happy anniversary!
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25 for the low
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If we’re going to maintain a -WPO, we’ll need the -NAO/-WPO ridge bridge to connect to push the TPV south into Canada making it easier to get a trough in the east.
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As in one strong cutter dumping cold air behind it towards us and suddenly we’re tracking a follow up wave. Could really happen anytime, but I have that pegged in week 2/3 in Jan. Could be sooner.
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That’s how we roll!
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I think the totals submitted in the contest thread are mostly too optimistic. I stayed below climo, but to even hit my own predictions we need a couple of hits in Jan or Feb.
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They correctly picked up hints of a colder pattern before the real cold came first half of Dec. Same thing happened last Jan. While I take weeklies with a grain (heap) of salt, they may be onto something here. An extreme -PNA doesn’t usually last, it’ll revert to at least neutral if not positive.
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I know the mood is in the gutter and the pattern is literally shit with little or no signs of recovering, but weak nina winters tend to be very volatile and I would not at all be surprised to see the cold east making a big comeback mid Jan through early Feb.
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Picked up 0.39”
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Followed by “we’re so back” posts mid/late Jan. Wouldn’t be surprised lol
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Not sure why. I haven’t explored it deeply enough to find the reason. Maybe papers have been written on this already, but most are focused on El Ninos rather than La Ninas.
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We actually don’t want to root for a quick fade on the nina, the last several -enso winters that went neutral by Jan basically ended early. Those that maintained nina into Jan gave us wintry periods into Feb (yes despite the canonical Feb torch).
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Clearly the goal posts are still very wide, and until the block establishes itself there will be a lot of uncertainty in our sensible weather outcomes. 6z takes us to the promised land while 12z shows us a poor case scenario. What’s most likely to happen is something in the middle, cool dreary CAD with maybe a mixed event with more snow to the north of this sub (and even this is low confidence).
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Good trends on ensembles. We may have something trackable here, which is sooner than I thought. Hopefully it is that kind of winter this year.
