Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Going to sleep now, y’all take the euro. I think we’re starting to see models diverging as they usually do between 5-7 days out, and then they’ll re-converge closer to a final solution at around 4 days, which takes us to Wed-Thur.
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Rare to have >1050 highs. Even 1040 highs aren’t all that common
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Think I’ll take the under on 1055 on that high
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Kinda a new development… even more suppressed, then a nrn stream wave pops down and tries to give us some cold smoke. Definitely different from the last two runs. We don’t have the final solution yet.
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12/19/09 was a relatively high ratio storm, no mixing no dry slots. 12-14:1 thereabouts.
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This echos my thoughts, same page. Increased chance of suppression based on recent runs bút still not the most likely outcome. Just can’t discount the idea right now
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Yeah iirc it was stubbornly SE of the rest of all guidance and we were willing it to come NW. In vain of course.
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And moisture angling wsw-ene instead of due east (or even SE!)
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Yeah, and what’s more, op gfs has been ranking near the bottom for verification scores
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Still thinking gfs/gefs may be overdoing the cold dome, its a known bias a week out. Not every day we get 1050 highs rolling in south from canada
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Actually shifted south on both surface and 500mb. I fear we can no longer discount the suppressed scenario if EPS does the same.
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I’d pay attention to how the ensembles trend, whether they shift more south or stay where they are.
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This
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Fwiw AI GFS doubles down on its 12z look. (It’s a relatively new and untested AI model unlike AIFS)
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Back edge approaching. All i got was a few flurries and sleet. This storm sucks here. Congrats to those to the S and E
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50 member breakdown: 33 dmv hits, 16 suppressed, 1 incomprehensible so that favors 2/3 odds of a non suppressed hit, and even some suppressed solutions still get us with at least a few inches
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Flurries. Microscopic flakes
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Based on radar i may get a shot at some flurries
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Here’s AIFS ensembles (which has been cleaning up in verification). MSLP mean is slightly south of the op aifs low position, by maybe 50 miles. But better clustering to the NW of the mean position
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Just checked - AIFS op has been beating all other op models based on 6-10 day verification scores at 500mb over the past 3 months. Let that sink in. Today’s 12z run:
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You can see a secondary swath across the deep south, so its clear that there are a few suppressed members. But still are in the minority. The op just happens to be one of them this run. Would not be surprised to see a very different 18z op run.
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Not sure about the ops, but AIFS ensembles have been doing an excellent job at 500mb.
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If the weeklies are correct, we’ll be mostly shielded from the canada torch and then winter ends on Feb 23 (unless march does something crazy)
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Just looked at all ensembles this morning. Nothing really changed. Jan 22 never had support. Jan 25-28 window is what they are keying on. I think the warmer rainy cutter scenario is the least likely. Snow/ice storm most likely, with the likelihood of a suppressed system somewhere in between closer to the lower end.
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Big fat zero here
