Terpeast

This isn’t true. For every example a pattern started in dec and persisted, I can come up with a few counter examples when the pattern changed in January.

0.17”, 51 degrees

Don’t know why people are jumping off the ledge a week before Thanksgiving. Acting like it’s game over for the whole winter when models are still struggling to get the longwave trough and ridge placements more than 10-12 days out. We will still get our chances/patterns. Maybe not the first half of dec, but I didn’t think that was ever in play to begin with. And I’m saying all this as someone who is calling for a “mid” kind of winter where we may only barely break double digits. And FWIW last winter the PV was stronger than normal, and we still got our cold air and snowfall.

I think the differences are mainly noise on such a forecast product like the weeklies that far out.

No real opinion on past MJO results, but that little loop right in 7 before 8 tells me that there might be a brief period of split forcing - one in 7/8 and the other in 3/4. That split forcing in 3/4 should get suppressed quickly and we get fully into 8.

Yeah, we've noticed the muting of torches as they get closer in time. I think it is because the Pacific is improving. We just need the Atlantic to cooperate with timing.

I can see that just based on the snowfall prediction contest thread. The early SSW doesn't really change my prediction for this winter much, if at all. If it does come to fruition, it may give us a front-loaded winter with a backend torch. If not, another SSWE may try again later given the neg QBO and given the shorter lag, we may see another 2-3 week window of opportunity in Jan or Feb. Getting both seems a little too much to ask for, imho.

Oh I thought you were talking about the euro weeklies. I don't expect much from the nao until the SSW + scand ridging take effect and (hopefully) retrogrades over greenland

Which models/forecast periods are you looking at?

Yep, one of those 2-4” stat padders we’ve been lacking until last winter.

After Dec 15 is when I'll start getting excited. Anything before that is gravy.

And imho it's not the speed of the pac jet, it's the placement of the strongest portion of the jet and it's exit region. If the jet is favored equatorward and its exit region is just south of the aleutians, we get ridging over AK and cold air flowing south into the CONUS towards the east.

That last week of December looks mint. Unfortunately it's 5 weeks away Until then, looks seasonable for us (upper 30s mid 40s on average)

All models are going strong into 7. The key will be whether it dies in 7, or pushes into 8 like the above plot does. I'm not convinced that will happen (and bluewave doesn't think it will), but if it does, it will be great for us.

For the MA, phase 7 is a transition phase. It is usually the precursor to big storms. Not always, but some.

0.27"

Fell short of 50 today, high of 49. Felt like winter!

Yes. -50 inches Joking aside, I’m thinking more a 2000-01 / 2017-18 winter here, fast start in december, normal transitory january, then february torch. But if the SSW happens and the aftereffects last long with the lag Chuck keeps mentioning, we may extend the good start to cover 2/3 of the winter season. Won’t take much to get us to climo, with march as a cherry top if we can get anything out of that month (which we haven’t in a long time - we’re due)

Welp, I went even lower than him. I'd be happy to be wrong, in our favor.

Low of 24, coldest so far

28.9

BWI: 11.2” DCA: 9.8” IAD: 13.5” RIC: 5.8” (Tiebreaker) SBY: 8.6”

Nothing yet, hopefully something pops within a couple hours

Thank you for saying the quiet part outloud. I have him on ignore anyways.