Terpeast

Here’s hoping for the best case scenario - current wave propagates east, lays down tracks for warmer surface/subsurface waters for the next mjo wave going well into 8 and 1 in jan/feb, while confining the nina to east based. Could turn out to be a fun winter if that happened. EPS tries to do this, but GEFS has been better with MJO. We shall see

Careful, we don’t want the nina to fade too fast. Winters with a nina that quickly fades to neutral by Jan tend to be less snowy than those that fade more slowly.

As I said, we will also want to see GEFS as comparison, not just the EPS

Yeah, gefs is slower and stronger going into 7, but I don’t really pay attention to what happens after that (the purple part) - too far out to have any real skill. But the gefs hollmover shows forcing weakening over the MC and moving east quickly through the pac basin past the dateline over the next week, and then cycle back to 6-7-8 soon after.

For future reference, based on MJO verification over the last 30 days, GEFS is really the one to watch when MJO is medium to high amplitude. And it’s not even competitive.

For future reference, based on MJO verification over the last 30 days, GEFS is really the one to watch when MJO is medium to high amplitude. And it’s not even competitive.

Same in ashburn

And the lake effect belts should be in for a fun time with the waters still being pretty warm

This isn’t true. For every example a pattern started in dec and persisted, I can come up with a few counter examples when the pattern changed in January.

0.17”, 51 degrees

Don’t know why people are jumping off the ledge a week before Thanksgiving. Acting like it’s game over for the whole winter when models are still struggling to get the longwave trough and ridge placements more than 10-12 days out. We will still get our chances/patterns. Maybe not the first half of dec, but I didn’t think that was ever in play to begin with. And I’m saying all this as someone who is calling for a “mid” kind of winter where we may only barely break double digits. And FWIW last winter the PV was stronger than normal, and we still got our cold air and snowfall.

I think the differences are mainly noise on such a forecast product like the weeklies that far out.

No real opinion on past MJO results, but that little loop right in 7 before 8 tells me that there might be a brief period of split forcing - one in 7/8 and the other in 3/4. That split forcing in 3/4 should get suppressed quickly and we get fully into 8.

Yeah, we've noticed the muting of torches as they get closer in time. I think it is because the Pacific is improving. We just need the Atlantic to cooperate with timing.

I can see that just based on the snowfall prediction contest thread. The early SSW doesn't really change my prediction for this winter much, if at all. If it does come to fruition, it may give us a front-loaded winter with a backend torch. If not, another SSWE may try again later given the neg QBO and given the shorter lag, we may see another 2-3 week window of opportunity in Jan or Feb. Getting both seems a little too much to ask for, imho.

Oh I thought you were talking about the euro weeklies. I don't expect much from the nao until the SSW + scand ridging take effect and (hopefully) retrogrades over greenland

Which models/forecast periods are you looking at?

Yep, one of those 2-4” stat padders we’ve been lacking until last winter.

After Dec 15 is when I'll start getting excited. Anything before that is gravy.

And imho it's not the speed of the pac jet, it's the placement of the strongest portion of the jet and it's exit region. If the jet is favored equatorward and its exit region is just south of the aleutians, we get ridging over AK and cold air flowing south into the CONUS towards the east.

That last week of December looks mint. Unfortunately it's 5 weeks away Until then, looks seasonable for us (upper 30s mid 40s on average)

All models are going strong into 7. The key will be whether it dies in 7, or pushes into 8 like the above plot does. I'm not convinced that will happen (and bluewave doesn't think it will), but if it does, it will be great for us.

For the MA, phase 7 is a transition phase. It is usually the precursor to big storms. Not always, but some.

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