Terpeast

Not as familiar with their climo as I am for the MA, but I’d venture a guess towards 10-15”, 20+ north of metro

Here's my winter outlook. (more of the same...)

My outlook. May do Edition 2 if things change in November. Or maybe not.

Not a whole lot has changed this month, so I decided to go ahead and issue my outlook for this winter. I'll keep it brief and simple: Overall winter feel: Meh, but not full-on blowtorch. Cool ENSO/weak basin-wide Nina coupled with -QBO Strong -PDO trying to turn the corner but not quite getting there -IOD bracketing MJO activity to phases 3-7 with limited 8-1-2 activity More weak troughing east of Japan pushing N. Pac High east into GOA (this helps us) Mostly -PNA, but with some +PNA episodes with plenty of Canadian cold air to tap into Weakly +NAO on the means with at least 2 or 3 bonafide -AO/-NAO blocking episodes Snowfall guess: 9-11" for the forum, maybe a few inches more for CAPE and northward of him Predicted mean DJF NH Pattern based on listed analogs (2021-22 weighted twice): SST changes last 15 days: Extrapolating cool SST/troughing east of Japan while warm blob pushes to the east. Cool area in GOA probably will not last. Atlantic pattern seems neutral towards NAO bias, but increased risk of SE ridge linkage with -NAO. Temp and Precip DJF Maps: Warmer and drier across the SE. Mild East Coast, but not torchy, plenty of cold air to tap into, but timing and SE ridge linkage will be an issue to contend with at times. Rockies, Upper MW, Great Lakes, and non-coastal SNE and all of NNE are poised to have a great winter.

That’s one of my top analogs, too. Another one high on the list is 2017-18

Euro and CMC have drastically different solutions than gfs. They both spin up a low in the upper OHV and then meanders north, giving us the likes of severe rather than a coastal.

32 this morning, first freeze

Yes. Too soon. But we saw the other day where cold novembers tend to be a better omen for overall winter seasons in cool enso years. OTOH, we’ve had 3 BN months in a row. Have we ever had 6-7 straight BN months in a warming climate, especially through the cold season? It could go either way. Cold nov/dec = decent winter… or torch-uary. I’ll make my call in a week or so, but still not sure which way I’m gonna go.

It’s clear how northern stream interaction screws us here. Happens more often than not in a nina

Yeah you're right about that. Hopefully it is a larger shift rather than a blip.

No SE ridge linkage

That, or high elevation snow, if that scenario is to be believed.

Assuming by neutral you mean "cold" neutral for ENSO (excluding warm neutral years) - I get the following (1990 & later) after -1 or colder novembers at KIAD: 1995-96 1996-97 2000-01 2008-09 2013-14 2021-22 Avg snowfall for those winters is 28.4" at IAD. But that includes two big years, so if we take those out, we get a more realistic target of 13.7" similar to last year.

If coupled with ENSO and if we’re willing to go that far back, perhaps a climo-adjusted 1974-75 analog might be considered.

Tbh I don’t actually consider 21-22 a dud, some places cashed in nicely and those who didn’t had just plain bad luck. However, the chance for another dud is very real and unfortunately that’s how the data is presenting itself currently. But I think that would be too easy. I believe there will be a surprise X factor (maybe the NE pac warm blob?) that throws a wrench into the standard nina/-pna climo progression to keep us in the game.

I’ve had my eye on 17-18 as well, in addition to 21-22. I’m on the fence about 22-23, but if I’m going to include that analog I feel the need to balance that with either 13-14 or 24-25, maybe even both. Sensibly for us that might mean a couple of months with NN/BN temps and fairly dry, and at least one torch month. Hopefully we get some blocking and some moisture to keep things interesting tracking-wise.

Thanks. It’s a bit surprising. If the AO is going to be positive, then we should root for a +NAO instead of - Wondering if the SE ridge linkage happens more with a +AO/-NAO regime…

Did you make this chart yourself? This is really instructive. Have you by any chance made one for KDCA as well? I suspect that would be even more tilted in favor of -AO.

The former. PDO rising in the fall, then falling back into the abyss during spring and summer has become something like a broken record the past few years. I don’t think we will know when it ends until the PDO stays well into positive territory for at least several months.

I just looked at the animation, and that warm blob ticking east looks like a promising sign. Let’s see if it isn’t just a blip, though. Another good sign is the atlantic isn’t boiling anymore. Most of that basin appears to be near normal, maybe slightly above overall. Re MJO I wonder if the models are under forecasting the amplitude. If this hollmover forecast plot is correct, it’s pretty strong. This pans out, we could see more +PNA this winter… making it more like last year than a blowtorch winter like 2022-23.

Yeah lets move that warm blob underneath the aleutians further east into GOA in the next couple of months, and we’re in business.

My concern is not so much the winter temps, but the lack of precipitation. Seasonal forecast maps look very very dry here on south.

0.07”. I was out this weekend so I didn’t track this storm, so does anyone remember which models correctly forecasted the evolution of this coastal storm? Take note of that for winter.

If this continues to hold (a big if) we may do even better than last year with the -qbo. Low expectations going in, though.

Yeah, some are just dooming. Not entirely without reason. I’m concerned about this winter for our sakes, but I don’t think it will be a total shutout like 22-23 (those are still rare). I do think not only we’ll average +3 over the entire season, but also see at least a couple of 2-week -epo/+pna window of opportunities for a decent event or two. Cold air source regions are starting to build and ahead of where they were last year, so not all hope is lost.