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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Yeah that looks really good, but we’ve seen a lot of great looks for Feb only for them to slip away at the last minute. Let’s see if this one holds given the strength of the nina and subsidence over the MC.
  2. Terpeast
    I have my doubts that the aleutian/goa low will be as strong as modeled. Maybe this helps us with cold air.
  3. Terpeast
    Yeah not great, but still a higher than normal chance for the big one
  4. Terpeast
    East. Might back west into central/basin wide before it dissipates
  5. Terpeast
    For the first time in months, I was able to cut the grass without melting. But still a bit sticky
  6. Terpeast
    NMME DJF outlook from the new england thread (no surprises):
  7. Terpeast
    Nicely done fact checking Ji’s AI, good catch. But I don’t think it changes the odds of a boom or bust, which is basically a coin flip at this point the boom/mid/bust split is 19/16/16
  8. Terpeast
    So basically equal chances of boom, bust, or mid
  9. Terpeast
    The cruel irony of 23-24 is that when it snowed, it was from northern stream systems squeezed under the canadian block at a time when the STJ took a break. When the STJ was active, it was rain every time. Cape Breton did get buried under 5 feet of snow in one storm thanks to the STJ, so at least there’s that.
  10. Terpeast
    Just looked at the euro monthlies, no big surprises. Very canonical east based nino
  11. Terpeast
    Looks very much canonical east based nino. Will be interesting to see how the -pdo base state interacts with it.
  12. Terpeast
    New euro doesn’t come out until 5th of each month. Tomorrow
  13. Terpeast
    0.6”
  14. Terpeast
    Cue the snarky data centers comments on Jay’s Wintry Mix page
  15. Terpeast
    0.00”
  16. Terpeast
    It will be interesting to see how the negative PDO interacts with the east based nino. Historically east based isn’t good for us, especially if the PDO is positive because too strong of a GOA low would flood the continent with mild air cutting off any polar flow. How will the negative PDO interacts with that is the big question. GOA low still amplified with a stronger jet further north? Or weaker and further west low that allows polar air to move south? I think we’re in uncharted territory and the analogs can only do so much here.
  17. Terpeast
    At least its showing up on modeling, now lets see if it actually verifies.
  18. Terpeast
    Differences are PDO (97-98 was super +PDO so careful what we wish for) and 1965-66 was low solar (we’re high but descending). I think a blend of these will land us close to what’ll happen this winter - milder and wetter than normal with elevated big dog potential. Other than that, not a whole lot to parse. Key thing to watch is where and how strong the Canadian ridge is. Too strong and too far east, storms either suppressed or rain. More west, we get colder air with a still active STJ.
  19. Terpeast
    If it makes you feel better, my top 4 analogs: 1997-98 2015-16 1982-83 1965-66 I’ll let someone else make a blended map of these and draw similarities between 3 out of 4 of these.
  20. Terpeast
    Those cansips 2m maps are probably wrong for the northern tier, where 500mb shows ridging in those areas. BN temps probably confined to tennessee valley and south, with us being NN or a couple degrees above.
  21. Terpeast
    I’m thinking +3 or so DJF for the mid atlantic, but with plenty of shots at a KU. Same page?
  22. Terpeast
    We just need to get Chuck on board
  23. Terpeast
    I’ve been thinking given how east based this super nino is so far, how will the marine heat wave off japan influence or interfere with the aleutian/GOA low? will upstream N Pac ridging further amplify the GOA low, pushing it further east and flooding the conus with mild air and cutting off cold air for everyone. Or might it destructively interfere with the aleutian/goa low, weakening it relative to what its strength should be with this nino’s strength - possibly pulling it west. Maybe both at different points in this winter?
  24. Terpeast
    Oh i could never be a politician. I’m too honest for that
  25. Terpeast
    True about the models, but I don’t think that was a real can kick. If October is abnormally dry though, I’ll concede
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