Terpeast

For now, I don’t see anything in the LR to get excited about. If winter is over, looking back on the last 4 seasons, only 22-23 was a true dead ratter. In each of the last 3 consecutive seasons, I have had at least 8” of snow depth. Last two winters maintained around 3 weeks of snow cover, which is not half bad considering the persistent -enso/-pdo base state. Let’s see what the next el nino has in store for us. I suspect it will be a milder winter with no prolonged snow cover, but perhaps we could get more of an active STJ and all we need is a well timed wave with some cold air. Not much to ask considering NC got theirs two winters in a row.

WCS agrees with you. Get a couple of WWBs that don’t stall and a moderate el nino with RONI at least +0.8 and we can break the -PDO that’s been plagueing us for years.

Hopefully someday I take my kids there and rent a snowmobile for a snowcation.

Nam 3k thermals did well on Jan 25.

Roughly an inch of slush. I take

If we remember the seasonals’ DJF precip anomaly forecast, it was bone dry and I was thinking “no STJ this winter then?” We’re lucky to get 8-11” frozen from a STJ wave that drove into the OHV.

Unfor for me and my dc metro brethen I think you may be right. Still a chance for a last second overperforming surprise

Can’t say I’m surprised. Feb-Mar usually torches during a Nina, with a few exceptions. In fact this was baked into my winter outlook.

It hasn't snowed at all in March since I moved back here in 2022. Ok maybe some snow TV but no accums at all.

(Source: CWG WaPo) This winter deserves high marks just for this reason alone. I know I know, frustrating tracking season and tons of teeth gnashing over near misses… but the snow/ice cover and duration of cold is impressive. With how much I have on the ground now, still 4-5”, I’m making a run for 21 days

(Source: CWG WaPo) This winter deserves high marks just for this reason alone. I know I know, frustrating tracking season and tons of teeth gnashing over near misses… but the snow/ice cover and duration of cold is impressive.

19” jack at Atlantic beach. It could have been us. Glass half full take - if it can happen down there, we still have our chances. Maybe not this season, but next year during an el nino we might get a hit.

For now I’m considering 6z euro a “blip” and given thermals, the high snow accums may be a mirage. But there’s still time. We’re starting to enter the inevitable model reshuffling period (D3-5) where things can really change. Maybe for once the reshuffle goes in our favor?

When you have Detroit and Buffalo in the mid 30s, we know we are in real trouble down here. Again, interior paste-bomb upside doesn't change.

Based purely on gut feel… upside is a wet 2” paste job NW of 95 before flipping to rain. I’ll take the stat padder while holding out hope for a last winter gasp end of feb or early march

Thanks to that one storm that defined the entire winter, this season has already outdid many of the winters I remember growing up here.

Low of 9

I think what PSU is trying to say is that the fast pattern flip in the pac takes a few days to affect the east. I know you said the time lag is 0 days, but I don’t agree. There is a limited window of time where we can still get a snowstorm before the warmup happens.

And that’s a wrap. Back to regularly scheduled storm tracking

Most boring superbowl I’ve ever watched. Halftime show was the most interesting part and I’m not trolling

Sounds like I didn’t miss much. I’ve pretty much tuned out all the commercials

The temperature part doesn’t surprise me, but the below average precip does

Great halftime show. Helps I know a bit of spanish

Very fragile setup, yes

In general… the quicker we can get the storm here the better, in this situation.