Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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CMC also goes into 6, while Euro stays in weak 7 (let's see what 12z says).
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When I saw the weeklies this morning, it looked like we're losing the Jan 5-12 window, but Jan 12-19 (and later weeks) stayed cold. I was going to wait until 12z to say anything though.
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He’ll stay up for 0z that’ll give us only 10” and call it a disaster
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That’s a folks worthy beat down!
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Very, very encouraging 12z suite. They are all taking shots at us in the second week of Jan. All it takes is one to hit.
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Yeah. I get it. Really do. But this is a la nina. Adjust expectations accordingly.
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I feel like many are chasing a 20”+ big dog and anything less is a rug (even something close to a 4-8er)
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I’m thinking the same. But i’ll take anything before the 10th!
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Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think the Dec 29-Jan 5 window favors EC snowstorms (apart from lighter snows that don’t pop up in modeling until less than 5 days). But once the +PNA develops after Jan 5 (if it does), all bets are off.
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Yep, that’s all we can take away at this moment. Jan 5-12 is still what I’m cautiously optimistic about, and the pattern still looks good after. There may be a couple/few days where we relax or warm up, but we have not lost this yet.
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Gefs 18z a bit better than 12z, more like 06z
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The 18z gfs wasn’t that bad. A “disaster” run would be a torch with 5 to 10 C 850s with a constant stream of western cutters. This one always had the boundary close or just south of us with some shots at us. A couple of those shots were a bit warm, but at that range, it wouldn’t take much at all. 500s look good.
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All ensembles slowly build a +PNA ridge between 240-360 hrs. AK vortex quickly fades and retros west
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I echo this sentiment. Lots of good analysis in here.
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We already had a Jan 2025 last year, so let’s roll the dice with Jan 2026
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Hopefully it’ll improve the mood in their subforum.
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I’ll let Ji handle this one
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I don’t usually start paying attention to thermals until less than a week out. Models don’t do as good a job with low level temperatures compared to 500mb beyond a week. It’s a well known warm bias with the euro weeklies.
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Weeklies trended even colder 2nd half of Jan, held for the first half.
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We do now have a few trackable events in the Jan 5-12 period (plus the NYD clipper). Even though they’re not showing what we want right now, there’s a lot of time for these to trend in our favor. It’s definitely not a shit the blinds pattern, but we need some luck on our side.
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Based on the radar i don’t think its over. But i think that dry slot robbed nyc of max potential with this storm
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Now for mby, I did get a trace of ice. Had some pieces of ice on my deck furniture covering.
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That’s a big dry slot. Let’s see if precip from Scranton can make it to nyc
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I can relate to that. I was on one of my work trips years back and I witnessed a 3’+ lake effect storm in western NY (an hour SW of buffalo). It was awesome, but it just didn’t have the same feeling of getting a home grown blizzard around here.
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Hard to say. Warm ups have been getting muted as they get closer in time. Storm tracks get pushed south (like it did for NYC today). It's just too chaotic to get a handle on it all until we get inside 120 hours.
