BrianW

Its been all over the news. The market is changing. People don't have $15 to spend on a 4 pack of IPA's anymore and sales are dropping like a cliff. In the last month, four breweries in the state have closed permanently. Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, seven breweries have closed in Connecticut. “Our breweries are struggling. Many of them are on the precipice of financial failure. Losing them is not an option,” Blumenthal said. “This program is an investment in the kind of changes in investment that are required of our breweries.” https://www.fox61.com/article/news/local/senator-blumenthal-seeks-federal-relief-funds-for-ct-breweries/520-01cc63b3-0f14-41ad-8576-40081096f5c9 https://www.hartfordbusiness.com/article/craft-beer-industry-growth-slowing-amid-pandemic-new-competition https://www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-news-connecticut-breweries-closing-20220205-latmm7zg7fg2tk57ipnsrpz37m-story.html

A friend of mine works in the craft brewery industry in CT. He said sales are horrendous and on a huge downward trend and 5 craft breweries just closed this month in CT. He said expect a ton more to close soon.

Be careful with those torches. This was on the news 5 days ago. Homeowner tries melting snow with garden-torch, sets house on fire. https://www.wtnh.com/news/connecticut/new-haven/homeowner-tries-melting-snow-with-flame-thrower-sets-home-on-fire/

Some of the scariest bridges I have seen have been on 91 in Massachusetts. I got off in Northampton a few years ago and was stopped in traffic under one. The bridge supports were literally crumbling with exposed rebar and they had nets under it to catch all the concrete deck pieces from falling on cars. I just did a Google search and it looks like its being repaired. I also found this picture of exactly what I saw under it. Crazy how they would let something get to that condition. Imagine the liability if that collapsed and killed a bunch of people.

@The 4 Seasons 13" Branford

What a winter here along the coast in CT. Getting absolutely destroyed right now here with this band. Impressive winter storm continues through this afternoon. Surface analysis depicts a 979 mb low, possibly lower, south of BUOY 44008 (South of Nantucket). The low will continue to deepen through this afternoon as it occludes, sending snow bands over the region. Intense dynamics under a dual jet structure are helping provide large scale lift over the area. The large scale lift is helping snow extend well NW of the actual low center. The middle level low centers per SPC mesoanalysis are SE of MTP, with strong mid level FGEN occurring along the colder side of the mid level low. Multiple heavy snow bands are currently over Long Island and southern Connecticut. A moderate to heavy snow band has also made it towards the eastern portion of NYC metro. Snowfall rates of around 1-2"/hr are likely across Long Island and southeast CT in these bands, with 3"/hr possible within the heaviest band across the Forks and New London CT. The Islip Airport Observer recently reported a 2"/hr snowfall rate between 8 and 9am. This band will likely stay in place the next several hours as the low passes to the southeast. Have also noticed some enhanced reflectivities west of the large band, which may some enhancement off the Long Island Sound in the strong N flow

The power outages are going to be a disaster with the cold and wind. Boston's high is 18 Sat and even the cape gets into the teens Sat night. You lose power in that and pipes are bursting quick. The line crews are going to be slowed down getting around with all the snow as well.

Lumber prices are nuts again. 2x4's back up to $8 each here. The price of softwood lumber has increased nearly 45% since September, per the data from the federal government. Other data suggests that the price mills are charging for lumber used to frame homes has tripled since August. Rising prices are one problem, but volatility is another. Over the course of the pandemic, lumber prices have fluctuated dramatically. Between 1947 and 2019, the monthly change in the price of softwood lumber averaged 0.3%. Since January 2020, though, it has averaged 12%. Not only is that the highest average monthly change over a two-year span since this data first started being collected in 1947, but it is nearly three times the previous record, according to the report.

I have seen some incredible returns in my solar stocks. Solaredge SEDG is a good one, they are one of largest solar inverter manufacturers. They are up 1428% the past 5 years. You will only get half a share but with the growth of solar its sure to go up.

Yeah. Temperatures are already starting to average upward in coastal CT and the NYC area. January has actually been above normal here. HVN is currently +.4 for the month and December was +5.5. The last 6 February's at HVN have been above normal as well.

I just went to a popular buffalo wing place here and couldn't believe how expensive the wings were. A 21 piece was $40. A few years ago it was like $12-14.

I always like looking at the ISO New England price map during exteme heat/cold. Wholesale electricity is at sky high prices as natural gas is getting diverted right now for heating. People don't realize there are oil peaker power plants scattered around New England that just sit idle like 90% of the year. Wholesale electricity prices are usually around $20-40 mwh in New England. Right now they are over $200. Those oil peaker plants can make millions firing up when wholesale prices are this high. Thats why they can afford to just idle them. Same thing happens in the summer. I remember reading during a cold snap in I think 2016 oil plants almost ran out of fuel. They burned their yearly average of fuel in just 1 week. If the cold had continued their would have been major issues. This cost is also passed on to everyone and is one of the reasons electricity is so expensive in New England. You think Eversource isnt passing along paying 10 times the cost for electricity right now. I have solar and you can actually see on the forecast demand map on the right all the solar drastically cutting back the peak load in the afternoon. I don't think people realize how much fuel and emissions is cut back from power plant generation from rooftop solar. Right now my heat pumps are being powered directly from my solar panels and I am feeding most of my power back to the grid. https://www.iso-ne.com/

I lived in Burlington from 2002-2007 and worked in property management. Jan 2003/2004 were nightmares with all the sprinklers/pipes/no heat issues. I literally never slept on all those subzero nights but made an obscene amount of money. Burlington had crazy snow those years as well. And that Valentines day storm was one of the most epic snowstorms I have ever experienced.

43 and pouring rain here.

47 and sunny with no brown here. Just fired up the lawn thread as I did my first lawn work today pulling weeds under the deck.

First official lawn work of the year. Had to go pull all the weeds growing under my deck. Incredible green still here for January.

Just took the dog out for a walk and it's already a nice warm 36 here on the shore. The sunrise is pretty epic as well

The new rate is reflected in the current chart at .22 kwh. It was .18 last month so it did jump substantially but will still save you a fortune over propane. You have a Mitsubishi heat pump right? The huge benefit with heat pumps people don't realize is in addition to powering them with renewable energy, electricity prices are extremely stable compared to oil/gas/propane. In most states electric rates are heavily state regulated and adjusted in price on Jan 1st and June 1st. I'm on solar but if I had to buy the electricity to run my heat pumps my fuel price would be the same until June 1st.

You guys must be getting crushed up North with $3+ oil and propane. Efficiency Maine has an awesome heating fuel cost calculator. The prices on the website are actual average fuel prices that Maine gathers. The current data is from Jan 3rd. Anyone using propane could have saved $3k+ this winter using a heat pump or wood/pellets. Current average winter heating cost per fuel. Wood $1,169 Pellets $1,712 Heat pump $1,795 Oil $3,027 Propane $4,728 https://www.efficiencymaine.com/at-home/heating-cost-comparison/

Only 3 weeks left until temps start averaging up here. Already up to 15 here after a low of 10.

I think WU is having some issues. I noticed a big lag the last few days on my station getting updated on the map. The map will show my stations temp from like an hour earlier.

Up to 29 here already and went from 12 to 23 in 10 mins last night once the sw flow kicked in. Got woken up to what sounded like trees or the ground cracking.