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Baroclinic Zone

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Everything posted by Baroclinic Zone

  1. Baroclinic Zone
    Still looks like 6” is within reach
  2. Baroclinic Zone
    Correct. This is more an issue of whether or not convection robs us of some ML deformation fun. I’m hedging towards the former rather then the latter based up what I’ve seen and my gut. It’s all good fun. BOX is now in a perfect position to play both ways. They had to play catch up over the last couple days when it became apparent there was going to a storm.
  3. Baroclinic Zone
    Meso models have been all over the place in the last couple days. The globals have been pretty close with a solid storm, save for the Uber solutions from a day ago.
  4. Baroclinic Zone
    I still think the 00z NAMs are suffering from convective feedback. You can see they are making the slow steady progression toward the global solutions. I see no reason to not believe the Euro/GFS.
  5. Baroclinic Zone
    Hearing the 18z Euro amped up a bit makes me feel more confident in 8-10”+
  6. Baroclinic Zone
    WSW
  7. Baroclinic Zone
    I have a feeling the Mesos are having a difficult time with qpf output due to the convection out east. They're still placing too much focus in that area and sort of ignoring where the best dynamics/lift are.
  8. Baroclinic Zone
    Closes off 7h after 12z Saturday.
  9. Baroclinic Zone
    Much better look at 5h.
  10. Baroclinic Zone
    Still looks like BOX is taking the slow uptick in totals. Think we see another bump up later. WSW and 4-7" totals? 6-10".
  11. Baroclinic Zone
    We likeda back end
  12. Baroclinic Zone
    But he's inland from the coast.
  13. Baroclinic Zone
    Hopes and dreams dashed in the next 30 min?
  14. Baroclinic Zone
  15. Baroclinic Zone
    Yeah, I'm 90% confident of 6"+. I'm looking for nuaces to crack 10'+. Want to see if the MLs close off for some time.
  16. Baroclinic Zone
  17. Baroclinic Zone
    We crown tnite!
  18. Baroclinic Zone
    Honestly, that's a sweet GFS look, right there.
  19. Baroclinic Zone
    Closes off in MLs, which will be a big factor in pushing totals to double digits down this way.
  20. Baroclinic Zone
    I think he's saying the same thing.
  21. Baroclinic Zone
    Still, the 00z run was a huge hit. The 12z run looks paltry compared to them.
  22. Baroclinic Zone
    Wut? It went from a MECS to a run of the mill snowstorm in a 6hr period. These are night and day different.
  23. Baroclinic Zone
    Looking like a safe call made by BOX this far, looking at the 12z guidance roll out.
  24. Baroclinic Zone
    I would tend to agree with this premise, seeing as the Euro, is a pretty solid model and normally great with with coastals. The GFS also agrees with it. Tough to argue against that unholy alliance. Let's see what the rest of 12z guidance shows though before passing judgement.
  25. Baroclinic Zone
    These more robust solutions are definitely due in part to the MLs closing off. The 3KM NAM manages to still do that
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