Baroclinic Zone

Everybody's fave SREFs, 21z run coming in with a little bump up in precip over eastern areas.

18z icon came in cooler than 12z run.

3km went off as well

Yeah, 18z NAM upped the ante. Over 2” in SE MA on that run.

Looks like a bit of an inv trof

NAM cooled off. Now has 850mb scooting just south off coast

Just pure nudity on the NAM looking at that temp gradient.

How’s it looking for NYC? Asking for a cop.

BOX also throws out possibility of t-snow.

12z Ukie looks pretty close to 06z run. Bumping up QPF some as well.

Local PVD station MET did not rule out thunder snow.

Had to do my weekly food shopping, so with this storm I decided to hit it by 630am. Parking lot was virtually empty. By the time I finished 30min later it was completely filled and the store was a madhouse.

That GFS is pure nudity.

Thermals look pretty steady

Some AM local station updates.

It’s cold but nothing out of the ordinary. Low of 5F. Currently 9F.

John this is a great explanation of the mechanics.

Roofies

All caught up. Not much to add that already hasn’t been said ad nauseem. Early 12z runs look like an omega bomb incoming. We flirt with the sleet along the southern areas. I feel it will reach further inland down in CT where you are further away from the cold air drainage. Up here in SE MA, I think it’ll migrate inland about 10-15mi. Down along the cape you’ll do really well also before any transition to sleet. QPF has been bumping up as well this AM, so I think many areas will be seeing 15-20” with some localized higher totals wherever we see some banding setup or just inland from the cf intrusion.

7pm afd

I’m gonna be pissed if I don’t get 16”

Yeah, most models are going apeshit with 1”+ over 12hrs. Wild ride coming.

Goofus still quite juicy. 1.5” just south of Scott.