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Baroclinic Zone

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Everything posted by Baroclinic Zone

  1. Baroclinic Zone
    3km NAM is a bit more robust a solution then the 12km NAM. Warning criteria snows in SE MA down to the Cape.
  2. Baroclinic Zone
    It's coming down to where the best UL forcing is.
  3. Baroclinic Zone
    In line with the tenor of the season, but not a solution in line with what 06z guidance was showing. Shows like a 4-8" storm.
  4. Baroclinic Zone
    Yep
  5. Baroclinic Zone
    https://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/avnmosmap.php
  6. Baroclinic Zone
  7. Baroclinic Zone
    Wtf....
  8. Baroclinic Zone
  9. Baroclinic Zone
    Ukie?
  10. Baroclinic Zone
  11. Baroclinic Zone
    SLP is going to want to be where the best diffluent flow is. Not some rogue voticiy
  12. Baroclinic Zone
    Yep, what they said
  13. Baroclinic Zone
    ICON is dropping >1” QPF in E MA. That’s a huge hit.
  14. Baroclinic Zone
    Relative model noise with that icon solution from 18-00z
  15. Baroclinic Zone
    Check out the classic dual jet structure on the 18z gfs. This wreaks of potential
  16. Baroclinic Zone
    It’s also not an amplified pattern. Flow is actually zonal across the country so it’s not going to gain much latitude either.
  17. Baroclinic Zone
    Sweet
  18. Baroclinic Zone
    why not? we are now in the wheelhouse of this model.
  19. Baroclinic Zone
  20. Baroclinic Zone
    holy carp @ the 18z gfs
  21. Baroclinic Zone
    KBOB approved BOX map
  22. Baroclinic Zone
    looked like it was going to be a solid hit, then it changed its mind
  23. Baroclinic Zone
    Nice look. We take
  24. Baroclinic Zone
    We take. TAN magic.
  25. Baroclinic Zone
    I'm sure it can come it a bit closer but there is a s/w over the GLs that will prevent this from running up your backside. The flow across the conus is pretty zonal but there is just enough of akink in the flow to allow for some amplification as it exits the coastline. Look at the upper air flow off the Carolinas up into the coastal waters S of here.
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