Baroclinic Zone

And you’re welcome everyone. Juju.

It’s a confidence level they have this far out.

It’s really coming down to intensity and how mid-levels act. Euro is just a bit more organized, mitigating any warm air intrusion beyond the south coast, while the GFS brings that further inland about 30 miles.

Started flatter but ended up about the same

Coming in ever so slightly flatter so far.

18z GEFS more spread at 12z Tuesday but more consolidate by 18z Tuesday.

18z GFS Dual lows…

Last 5-6 model cycles, the trend has been for a flatter solution. Does not mean that holds or continues. We have seen countless times where we see those last 24-48hrs where things come in more amplified.

AI ftw?

2 distinct camps in the 12z GEFS

Bit too much of this growing up.

GFS has been quick to take that s/w and push it further north over upper Midwest while euro is a bit slower and has s/w further south.

Thanks for putting my earlier comment into a more detailed response.

GFS has not performed well. I feel it’s been too amplified.

I wonder how modeling is handling the NAO flip. How much feedback is there. Shunting storm further S.

You take that back…

All SEMATT saddling up for the 6z Euro/EPS run.

Overall trend I have seen is lowering/flattening of heights over the northeast. Vorticity itself looks to be more consolidated and has dug further south. Nice look on the overnight for interior SNE and up into CNE.

If December ain’t rockin’, don’t come a knockin’

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Thread hath been giveth.

So we’re 4-5 days out from our first winter storm of the season. Models are pretty consistent in bringing surface low off coast and traversing across the area. Prior to storm we have a cold front that pushes through proving antecedent airmass. This cold unfortunately won’t be locked in place. High pressure while initially in a pretty good spot just north of the area will be retreating allowing warmer air to intrude. Overall a pretty classic storm setup. With storm being so early in the season, areas inland and with elevation will be more favorable for staying on the snowier side while coastal areas will see perhaps an initial burst of snow but transitioning to rain as warmer air intrudes. The storm is pretty juiced up so we could see some seeing 6-10” snow out of this and those on the wet side seeing 0.5-1.0” of rain. Below are the latest 06z EPS and GEFS ensembles showing tracks and 24hr mean QPF.