Jebman

Good analysis Terpeast. I think however that you are underestimating western MD for snow. Those communities will get Palisaded by snows.

Bank on this, it is gonna happen to the Mid Atlantic this winter! I'll be cheering all of you right on!

I am so happy for you all this winter, I want to shout this from the housetops, until I am hoarse!

Just wow! You are definitely NO wannabe, George BM! Two inches of ice accretion in N VA would not only be historic, but absolutely catastrophic. Not to mention all that snow and sleet/ice embedded within the snowpack. No power at all, freezing temps and essentially cut off from the rest of the world! Not having power and 34 in the house is no fun. I know. I dont want ice storms in south central Texas NO MORE. That much ice would produce structural damage and even big trees would simply snap. Houses would be bisected and cars crushed. I saw what three quarters of an inch of ice did to big oaks down here in Texas last Feb. We had a 16 inch branch snap right off. There were piles of branches all over Buda for weeks. I got the bajorkas worked right out of me dragging huge branches around. I'll tell you what I learned from that debacle: NO MAS. Never ever again. Ice on sidewalks and streets is no fun at all, especially once you get older. You could break your back just tryin to get the damn newspaper!

Larry Cosgrove mentioned that the upper air setup for this fall/winter has more than just a passing resemblance to 2009-2010. I remember all too well what happened in Northern Virginia in 2009-2010. Dale City had a ton of snow from multiple blizzards and I got to personally witness what 30 plus inches of snow looked like in Charles Town, West Virginia! Its high time to stock up on whatever it is you use to stay awake for days on end. You are gonna be on those models a hell of a LOT! This sub is gonna be buzzin! I can hardly wait! Mid Atlantic is going to get obliterated by torrential snows! George BM you are two days away from Nov 1! I'd like you to write up a storm sequence that smashed up the Mid Atlantic that makes The Day After Tomorrow look like a spring afternoon in Central Park! Lookin' forward to it!

First official low in the 30s! Already! It got down to 39. First official high in the 40s! Already! High today was a frigid 45! And our normals are 76/56! The winter of 2023-24 in south central Texas is gettin' off to a frigid start! We are probably going to have to contend with potentially a lot of ice, sleet and possibly snow accumulations down here in the deep southwest this winter! There is definitely going to be a ton of rain as the subtropical jet goes into full-on Beast Mode! We got nearly 6 INCHES of rain just in the past 7 days! Thats 34.50 inches on the year and normal is 30 inches of rain in one year! The grass and weeds are already way out of control and the back yard is a massive quagmire!

Saw lightning 3 times tonight. North winds continue along with light to occasional moderate rain. We have gotten another inch of rain tonight. Winds are running in the 20s with gusts to 42mph. Wind chills are in the mid 20s. We have gotten 5.7 inches of rain in the past week. Yard is a muddy quagmire. It is 39 degrees.

Mammoth Mountain is already makin' snow! It's 28 degrees and they are gettin ready for the 2023-24 ski season! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/unbound-main-park

It's 46 frigid degrees with a wicked northerly wind. It's starting to rain again. What I wouldn't give right now, for just one 100 degree day and dry sunny weather. It's wet, muddy, windy as heck and BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR !!!!!!!!!! El Nino is already getting old. Lmao

Models are trending colder with the Sunday front. I really do not want highs in the upper 30s on Monday with 33mph northerly wind gusts. It will also be rainy and drizzly. I prefer 83 with 65 dewpoints and a nice southeasterly breeze.

Get well and feel much better soon!

Yeah, at least I am safe. I dont want to drown from getting swept off of a low water crossing. Tonight I DID get out - and did pretty well! Almost as if I may have made up for last night somehow. We got 3 inches of rain overnight. It FINALLY arrived at 530am lol. We got 1.6 earlier this week. Now we are up to 33 inches on the year. Mom's back yard is a quagmire. Weeds are erupting in my yard and once again I am down on my knees pulling weeds frantically! More showers may come Friday and Sunday especially with that early Arctic Front. EDIT: OUCH! NWS said we may only hit 41 degrees Monday with 25 mph northerly winds on top of it and isentropic rain/drizzle rooted in the 850 layer to boot! Man that is COLD as heck for us! It was only early October we were still 98! We're gonna be THIRTY SIX frackin' degrees below normal!

Many people are going to suffer horribly from this El Nino. It has already been seen in Acapulco with the unbelievable strengthening of Otis. They had no warning at all. Weather forecasters should be totally embarrassed. Tonight, I got snuckered in really bad by this weather system to my west. I was so scared, horrified of being caught in a deep rushing flood as I drove by one of hundreds of low water crossings, that I decided not to go out on my beloved deliveries. Only to find out that the weather system to our west has not moved a g-ddamned inch all night! I just missed out on what would probably have been one of the greatest delivery nights of my entire lifetime! That's not the worst of it though. The worst of it is some other shmuck got all my orders tonight, because I was too damn SCARED of drowning in a so-called rainstorm that the National Weather Service got wrong as sin! Well here I am, all disappointed, missed a whole night of deliveries, and I am high and FRACKING DRY!! Isnt it like the Texas NWS to completely fruck up per usual! Every one of those posers need to go back to elementary school! Texas is incapable of forecasting weather down here. That system never moved one frackin' INCH in 8 hours! Not ONE INCH east! And I missed a whole night of deliveries! And someone else got all the money I would have made tonight, IF I had known what a monumental fruck up Austin NWS is and always has been for at least the past 30 years! I dont care about rain, I love delivering, especially at 5am in pitch black dangerous neighborhoods like southeast DC. I am the very BEST delivery person the entire world has ever heard of, except in rainstorms. Because of the hundreds of low water crossings I have to cross. That's why I got so scared of going out tonight. The ground is very wet, they forecasted 1-3 inches with 4-6 inches in spots. The weather system in question is still about 70 miles to my west and I missed out on an entire night of delivering. I like delivering food far better than getting to watch a 70 inch snowstorm bury Washington DC.

It is snowing and blowing at Palisades Tahoe! Check out the 8200' Scope! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams Wow, just like midwinter! Snow is really flying at Palisades! Get your season tickets now!

Or an eighteen wheeler chock full of Faces, thousands of Faces. Faces 6 inches in diameter.

Yeah Otis sure redefined RI for us, lol. Tropical Storm to 165 mph Cat 5 with catastrophic gusts to 200 mph in 12 hours. Anyone know if iCyclone was down there recording the storm in Acapulco? Josh is an international, intercontinental hurricane chaser. THAT, would be some intriguing footage for sure!

Darn it. I can't even go out and do delivery tonight, because I know there are numerous low water crossings where I drive at night and these places are wet as heck from recent rainfall. El Nino is bringing even more rain tonight. Otis just HAD to go from a tropical storm to a Cat 4 hurricane in under 12 hours, and we are getting upper level moisture from Otis. This is getting ridiculous. We dont need no more Pacific hurricanes, enough is already enough! I am sick of Nino already. Hays County is already under a flood watch, as 1-3 inches of rain on top of what we already got in the past three days are forecast, with some communities getting 4-6 inches. This is NO TIME FOR AN OVERACHIEVING STORM. We need to dry out real bad already. To add even more woes, Sunday night will bring frigid mid January conditions with high temperatures potentially only in the middle 40s for Monday! With freezing cold northerly winds! I can't even find my winter coat! Whatever happened to highs around 77? Thats the NORMAL high temperature for Buda this time of year. This is no time for an overachieving Arctic front.

Palisades Tahoe got 3-4 inches of snow today! Check out the 8200' Scope! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams Its a cool 27 degrees!

Good for you! I am so happy you had a good time! How about those Ravens!!!!!!

Pouring rain. Working on 2 inches since last night. Hello, El Nino.

I will never walk a snow declaration back. EVER. I don't think I want a billion year magnitude rain river after all. Just one inch of rain in a week. For 135 consecutive weeks. Friend of mine came by today, we went to where my car was, he patched that tire right up. Guy is a regular MacGyver. Took the car back home, covered it up. It's raining but I don't want a flood. We already got one inch overnight. It needs to clear up, dry out then we can have a half inch of rain on Thursday. I am a little bit more careful what I wish for. On the other hand I wish at least thirty BECS-magnitude blizzards on the Washington Metropolitan Region this winter.

You guys are never gonna believe this. My car is 13 miles away. I had a flat. Mom brought me home. The car roof leaks bad. We are getting hit by that rain I said I wanted. The Norma moisture and the darn trough are coalescing. I wish I had been careful about what I wished for. I am frantically praying for the rain to miss us. What have I done?

Ravens will get better.

My favorite place on Earth, is now Cherrapunji in India. Winds transport moisture up against mountains and they get ~1000 inches per year. I would never run out of water.

Texas is much drier than Virginia. We are all hoping and praying for rain, because next summer is progged to be worse than 2023's was. Maybe we should get the Native Americans in Oklahoma to come down here and do a three day rain dance festival.