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Dark Star

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Dark Star

  1. Dark Star
    I've been trying to ignore the extended maps and trying to concentrate on real time data. Looking for sources of cold air, whether it be in Canada, Siberia, or Northern Europe...
  2. Dark Star
    Looking at actual temperatures in Edmonton Canada yesterday, It was 4 degrees F, with a forecst of 15 degrees F for today. Later in the week, daytime high temperatures are expected to fall into the negative teens (at least). That is definitely below normal. I wonder if that is just from normal interior air cooling due to lack of sunlight, or a real arctic air intrusion from over the pole? It wil be interesting if that can affect the NYC metro temperatures sometime later next week to cool us down and provide a cold air source to tap into in case there are any storms around. Again, I'm not bullish on these 10 day + maps to provide accurate forecsts. Trying to use real time data, and attempting to extrapolate on what may hasppen, based on real time and short term upper level patterns...
  3. Dark Star
    Sun has come out in Garwood, central Union County, NJ, after a little light snow...Town plowed after 1" of snow last night, twice. They always do a great job, but certainly a waste of taxpayer money, considering the entire event was above 32 degrees. If they were concerned about accidents, they could have just concentrated on a few intersections on the main road.
  4. Dark Star
    and the other times we missed out on snow that decade is when we were on the wrong side of the high and got the lake cutters...
  5. Dark Star
    1" snow here in Garwood, central Union County, NJ. 34 degrees F. Dangerously close to blowing my 1-2" slushy accumulation before a changeover. Haven't seen any sleet yet, but snow intensity is lightening up.
  6. Dark Star
    13 days out, little faith in the accuracy. Until we actually see true arctic air coming across the pole, nothing will change. I must sound like a broken record, but look at real time data, not the models, to get an idea of what is going on.
  7. Dark Star
    I know yesterday, the band of -30 was quite small, so I am not hopeful.
  8. Dark Star
    But WHERE is the cold air coming from? No arctic air in North America. How quickly can the arctic air build and cross over from Norhter Europe to our area?
  9. Dark Star
  10. Dark Star
    It seems a lot of newbies don't think you need cold air in the mix?
  11. Dark Star
  12. Dark Star
    Thanks for the map, but didn't a previous long range map in late December show arctic air coming across the pole into eastern Canada? I think we all know the accuracy of these long range models. I admit my skills have greatly eroded, but I have been concentrating more on real time temperatures in Canada. Right now, the core of the coldest air in North America is north of Michigan and just west of Hudson Bay, with a few extensions further west. Then, as you go farther north, it gets warmer. The true arctic air is predominantly over northern Europe right now. So my question is, how or where is the cold air on this projection coming from? What are the inputs of this model and how accurate has it been?
  13. Dark Star
    and where is the cold air coming from?
  14. Dark Star
    Where is the arctic air? So far, there is none this side of the north pole.
  15. Dark Star
    No real arctic air out west. Coldest air is in a wedge north of Michigan, just West of Hudson Bay. There is no continuous feed of arctic air this side of the north pole. You don't need any models to see that. just look at the real time physical data...
  16. Dark Star
    Not sure if I ever remember that happening. Models have occasionally shown it, but never really happens?
  17. Dark Star
    Elevation?
  18. Dark Star
    How so, with no true arctic air in Canada, except for maybe a small wedge of seasonable air along a narrow stretch just west of Hudson Bay? I think if we start looking at the present physical data instead of the models, we might actually see what is happening?
  19. Dark Star
    GFS Ens looks like it says seasonable in NYC metro area, and warmer the farther north you go, therefore, no sustained cold air?
  20. Dark Star
    You need cold air. For NYC you need moisture, cold air and luck for snow. We can't have it both ways.
  21. Dark Star
    But surpressed why? Because of a cold high? That is normally one of the features you need, well placed. Marginal "seasonable" air is not going to cut it, not around here...
  22. Dark Star
    We could very well be in an unprecedented climate. I lived through the 70's and 80's, and had some mighty cold winters, very little snow. I would put little faith into previous patterns. We haven't seen anything this extreme; including the general warming up of the northeast due to the weakening of the Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation...
  23. Dark Star
    Just for fun, I was trying to locate any "arctic" air in North America. There appeals to be a pool of cold air north of Michigan and just west of Hudson Bay. I don't know if these temperatures are normal for this time of year, ranging from -11 at Churchill and as cold as -36 north and west of there. Then as you travel farther north, it begins to get warmer. So we are cut off from the seepage of any true arctic air. I believe from some of the extended models in December, we should start to see some true arctic air begin to plunge more or less down the eastern side of Canada. Not sure if that is still the case? If not, our area will be marginal at best, at least until February...
  24. Dark Star
    Or more accurate models? If the models "correct" north and west all the time, isn't it a problem with the models? I wasn't expecting much from the beginning, since the air temperature was marginal, at best...
  25. Dark Star
    Can I come? I won't eat much. I promise not to bring my banjo...
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