Dark Star

I would rather have a source of cold air, than hoping for the exact right setup...

I think on Eastern. Jeff would have post snow storm analysis. What went wrong, or right, with most major winter storms. It was a great learning tool. He used to state, "The devil is in the details", meaning there are clues as to the outcome of each winter storm. It is a matter of choosing the correct clues.

Jeff Beradelli has stated that sudden stratospheric warming will begin today, dropping a polar vortex into the northeast by early next month.

Chance of flurries tonight?

One reason my mother never called me son...

Sort of opposes the warmer temperatures means more snows theory. Not to say that there cannot be occasional heavy snow storms...

From what little I remember, the Gulf Stream/Labrador Current circulation has been slowing down, raising the NYC metro area temperatures 4 to 5 degrees warmer than normal?

Holy crap, around noon time, Newark only had 0.75" (the NWS is only showing 1.15" for Newark airport?) We did get some heavier downbursts after 12 pm to about 2 PM. No flooding in the immediate area. But looks like NYC received a heavier band that was somewhat training over the area. I see Newark updated its rain totals, reflecting what you said earlier...

That's almost always debatable. The rain is "showery" in nature. Most of the day featured on and off showers, mainly light in nature, with some heavier downpours. But, depending upon your exact location, you may have had more persistent heavier bursts. Certainly Northeastern PA was a bullseye, as forecast. Seems like your area was another bullseye. We had a snowstorm, I think within the last 10 years that was extremely spotty, some areas getting 20"+ and other areas 5", from town to town. I can't remember a snowstorm that was that "convective" before. Then within a week or so later, another snowstorm was forecast. Storm Field was predicting the exact same thing, extreme variations in totals, as though suddenly this was a new trend. The snowfall amounts in the 2nd storm were much more uniform.

Okay, maybe not. Everything looks to be moving out when forecasts called for the heaviest between this afternoon and this evening?

Around 3/4" in Garwood, central Union County. Rain intensity is variable, sometimes coming down at 50 degree angles, other times not so much. Wind light at times to moderate...

Models looking pretty good in general. They had at least one bullseye over northeastern PA, and that looks to be panning out...

New12 NJ called for 0.5" generally throughout the state yesterday. I would place my money on that forecast...

Dry slots seem to have become a norm?

I hope we don't get into a pissing contest, blaming poor forecasts on budget cuts?

No cold (direct) polar air yet in our area. If I read Don correctly, when the coldest air is in Siberia around this time, we should probably expect the dreaded Pacific Jet to dominate?

We do know that more real time data should result in better model forecast outcomes. However 0.01% to 0.028% is pretty low. I would guess we had a lot less in the 1970s and 1980s?

Good Old Ben...

The Limited Fine Mesh...

Except the Euro predicted Sandy hitting NJ a week out. That gave birth to the Euro being the "best" model, until it wasn't..

Humidity is a bit much..

11 hours, seems less than that. I guess we only notice when the sun is up, versus twilight during dawn and dusk...

540 Thickness all the way up near Hudson Bay

Sunny now...

Actually, the forecast was for clouds between 11 am and about 2 PM (at least I think from Fox5 yesterday), however, I see your point. The NWS does say mostly sunny, while their Forecast Discussion does mention a frontal passage early this afternoon...