MANDA

This could be epic for southeast New England. Rivaling the Blizzard of 1978. Full capture, loop and explosive development. All too late for most in this forum. Not expecting major adjustments at this point. This clearly is going to be one for the books over southeast New England. Coastal NJ will do well up across central and eastern L.I. West of I95 a moderate event. No changes to amounts I put out earlier this morning.

Individual members are lackluster to say the least as far as totals. Only one member is notable for bringing heavier snows into SNJ/CNJ....the rest are meh. Just pointing it out that the GFS has a ways to go to catch up to other guidance.

In limited hindsight at this point it was best to go with the Euro last several days because ensemble support was so strong and the model overall was consistent except for rather minor shifts, at least that was my reason for favoring it over the GFS. Would have been pretty rare for the EURO to do a complete cave with that kind of ensemble support. One could say the GFS has support from its ensembles, and it did but despite some recent shortcomings with the EURO it is still a superior model in my opinion and the skill scores prove that out. EURO and CMC are both ahead of the GFS in skill scores. Granted the OP EURO had some BIG solutions for NJ/NYC and they have been tempered as we get closer to the event but the overall signal from the EURO was far better than the GFS. That is assuming things remain on track next 48-60 hours.

Those totals over southeast NE are with winds gusting to 50 and perhaps 60 mph!

This could be crippling snowstorm / blizzard for southeast NE if NAM solution is close to reality.

Definite improvements on 18Z NAM. Does not do much to help us west of I95ers but much better look for bigger snows I95 south and east and across LI. Window is closing for western and northern areas for anything more than a minor to perhaps moderate event.

Max winds have rounded base of the trof but still some digging left to do as another small max rounds the base from MS and GA.

NAM has same double low structure at H39. In close proximity. Hopefully western one dominates because if it does the 500 looks more a little more favorable than 12Z. Next few time steps should be somewhat interesting.

You want fries and a coke with that?

Follow up to another poster above. Here are members 1 through 25 to add to his/hers 26 to 51.

6", 12" and 18" probabilities All 3 showed slight expansion N and W from 06Z

12Z EURO MEAN and CONTROL Don't have individual members yet

This would be a very welcome and appreciated snow event for this forum if expectations were not set so high early in the week with some of the very intense and epic solutions the Euro and EPS were showing and at times CMC and GFS back 5-7 days out. Given the winter so far if this forum gets something close to the 12Z Euro take it and run!

No large scale overall changes with 12Z EURO. Just "noise" in my opinion. Remains close to something better but I think it is going to be just a little too late for most of this forum to cash in on double digit totals. NJ coast and L.I. best chances for 12"+. Amounts will taper quickly N and W of I95. Would go with 4-8" NYC. NW NJ 1-3, maybe 2-4". I think final outcome could be close to what 12Z EURO is showing. Having said that any minor adjustments could send totals upward and further to the NW as well. Gut feeling is this is just going to be a little too late for much higher than what I've described. Still a delicate situation that bears watching for adjustment.

Expecting no big changes from Euro. Perhaps a nudge east. We'll see shortly.

Agreed!

Some westward lean yes but majority of those tracks are south and east of the BM and that ain't gonna cut it. For my location I like a track between KBID and KMVY and across CC Canal to maximize totals over western and NW NJ. With these tracks SE New England cashes in and that is what most guidance is showing.

I do!

GFS is SO CLOSE to something great for along and east of I95 and L.I. Time is running out, if not out for places NW of I95 as amounts seem destined to fall off rapidly as you go NW but this still has time to produce big for coastal NJ and LI and by big I mean 12"+.

Yes, and I did amend my post immediately after I posted it. Western and northern edge of snow shield could be closer to Kuchera totals. 15:1 ratios are not likely.

Anyone hanging their hopes on Kuchera totals is in for disappointment. Except for perhaps western and northern edges of the snow shield.

I'm accepting it and have been accepting it for at least the last two days for my location. Will take significant changes to get my area in 12"+ snows and I'm not expecting it.

Liking the northern stream so far on the NAM. We'll see how this plays out for the rest of the run. Looks good so far. It does have that "go boom" look but exactly when and where?

Could not agree more. Where and when will absolutely dictate who gets what. So close to something amazing. Not that 12" for some spots is not good but expectations were set very high early on with this and then with constant posting of the Kuchera maps that skews expectations. 12Z runs will be interesting.