HKY_WX
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Everything posted by HKY_WX
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Looks to me, the eye will head up hwy 1 and scrap the west side of lake pontchartrain.
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I guess they wanted to test their swimming skills. Can't think of another reason to stay on a remote island in LA with a Cat 4/5 approaching. They get the darwin seal of approval.
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Gfs is a devastating run. Even slows it down w the turn
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Yikes
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Pretty significant jump again. Considering the timeframe. Def puts western parts of New Orleans in the eyewall
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Looking pretty bad azz now
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Getting lightning in the NW eyewall now.
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It's been a long time since I've seen a sat loop of a strengthening Hurricane with such a low shear environment as Ida. There's nothing remotely close to it to impede intensification
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The rapid intensification could be overhyped if it doesnt materialize (even though it likely will). From a weather perspective, it could be overhyped. From a life/property perspective you have a point.
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No 2 storms are ever the same and that's the beauty of wx/forecasting. Ultimately the next 12 to 18 hours and any RI will prob be what determines if this goes down as one of the greats or overhyped.
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I think I'd evacuate the other direction
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Good points. But who knows what's in store intensity wise tonight and tomorrow.
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Euro tracks it just west of lake pontchartrain now. Lawd help those folks
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Euro and gfs ticked east at 12z. To me, this is Prob the most important 36 hours of hurricane watching since 05. A storm this size moving in this direction is going to pile up sooo much water in La and even MS. This is the storm slosh models were invented for.
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Havent seen any funnel cloud or tog reports yet for the charlotte cell
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Tightening up
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Suns out and 73 here in Raleigh. Btw
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That a nasty cellheading towards south Charlotte
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This certainly will not be a bust for the northern NC border counties, which was always looking to be ground zero. The eastern portions will likely get more ZR this evening/night. This just doesn't appear to be overly impactful for the population centers.
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Was just talking to him about this. Def something to watch tonight
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Here's the trees in NW Raleigh
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Got a good glaze in the trees here NW of Raleigh
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31 with zr here NW of raleigh. Forecast (No time for a map with a 2 month old lol) : Roxboro: .75 to 1 GSO: .5 to .75 Hillsborough: .5 Durham: .3 HKY .2 RDU: .1 to .25 (more in NW Wake) CLT: Trace
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RDPS looks a bit colder at 18z. The main difference b/n the GFS/RDPS and the NAM/Hi-Res mods appears to be the precip' shield. The higher res American models appear to be putting more emphasis on sparser convective/dynamic bands (this is usually the case due to the model physics/resolution). A more steady/less dynamical precip shield would be more conducive for ZR accrual. This may be something to watch tonight to get a feel for which way this is headed.
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Someone mentioned it yesterday, but timing and precip intensity is playing some havoc on these accrual maps. It's probably going to bounce around until gametime tomorrow.
