psuhoffman

When one snowmobile has way too much to drink and…

Let’s ask AI how to deal with it

That’s not totally true. We’ve got lucky in east based before with one big hit. But an east based Nino with an unfavorable solar/QBO would likely not be a wall to wall good winter like 2003 or 2010 and probably not even one that was mixed but features a very good 4-5 weeks like 1987 and 2015. But there is always the threat of one BIG hit even in a bad Nino because a juiced up STJ is sending waves at us and we just need to time cold up with one.

Let me ask Gemini what it means

And who are these people posting this crap?

OMFG can we stop with the AI Chat BS

The most obvious reason is the lack of STj which is Nina related. But why are there not even some reasonable decent northern stream waves? I don’t know. Honestly the pattern is suppressed so much right now we could even work with some NS only wave at times but even they are weak sauce

Im not throwing in the towel on this year her. The pattern is very good in terms of being right for any amplification to be a snow threat. We just need something to happen. The last wave was a pretty good hit. This next one is so damn close but looks to be a miss. This pattern isn’t breaking down and is reloading actually. We have at least 3 more weeks and maybe more if guidance is right. We juts need 1-2 more hits. It can happen. After this we need a -AO Nino basically. What stacks the deck most would be to time up a west based Nino with a favorable solar and QBO. Problem is next year is likely to have unfavorable solar and QBO and early signs are east based. So…

No our biggest issue next year is if it’s an east based Nino with a hostile QBO. Not all Ninos are snowy. Just the ones that are can be VERY snowy.

I don’t think he is active on here, he lurks sometimes.

Jokes aside it’s a good sign we’ve had 2 cold winters in a row. Our struggles turning that into a lot of snow has more to do with the lack of STJ because…Nina, than anything else and cold dry wingers were always a thing going back 100 years. So glass half full maybe we are out of the main issue that plagued us from 2017-2024 and we just haven’t had a snowy winter yet (and I’ve not given up on this one yet we just need one flush hit and the pattern is far from hopeless).

I’m fine. I’ll be in Vermont at my friends, drunk off my arse this weekend BTW, he’s the smart one. He was a meteorology student with me at PSU. Big snow weenie. So he bought a snowmobile farm on top of a mountain in Vermont that averages about 150” of snow.

And before anyone says “but it snows once in a while” yea it has to just enough to keep us engaged. If it never snowed at all we would have all either moved or moved on to other things in our lives by now. No no no, in order to inflict the absolute most pain and suffering possible they have to give us just enough hope to keep us coming back each time for the next kick in the nads.

I’ve realized we are living in a simulation and the code was written by someone who was wronged by a mid Atlantic snow weenie and the whole point of the simulation is to get revenge

It had to trend closer in order to inflict the maximum amount of emotional trauma.

This longwave pattern is exactly what we need...we just need some freaking waves to amplify within it... but the mean h5 the next 3 weeks is exactly what all our big snow periods look like... but within that pattern we need some freaking storms to come along...the longwave doesn't matter if there are no energetic shortwaves embedded within it.

@Terpeast @MN Transplant @WxUSAF Question... something I've noticed anecdotally over the last 20 years, when 3-5 days out we have models projecting a favorable H5 feature for our area...it trends north a significant majority of the time. However...when guidance has a cutoff h5 feature projected too far south of us...it does not tend to trend north as often. I can think of a logical reason, perhaps if a cutoff is far enough south its far enough removed from the NS flow and not impacted by minor variations the models typically get wrong...and which cause the north bleed in these features when they are around our latitude. Just wondering if you have also noticed this and if there is something to it, besides just random chance and us getting really unlucky lately.

I can't look right now...but might want to take a look at the "median" or 50% map...to see if that snowfall closer to DC is the product of a few crazy outlier runs that have like 20" creating that mean of 2" in the area. We get a lot of false flags where people look at a mean on the EPS and think it's saying we should get some snow when really it's not saying that at all and the snow mean is just a product of big outlier solutions.

I said I’d reserve judgement until today. I don’t need to see everything lock in on a big hit today but I need to see it look close enough that the typical small bleed north we see the final 72 hours will be enough. What we need most at this point is some combo of 3 things. For the upper low to go negative slightly sooner, more separation up top so it can lift north sooner or for the whole thing to simply cut off further north.

I’d rather need a north trend than south.

It’s digging and cutting off too far south. Since once it cuts off it’s not going to lift north due to the flow over the top we need it to cut off and track across the NC/VA border not down near SC. We just need one thing, for that upper low to trend north.

Buy me a drink at the next HH. If it trends worse from 18z first rounds on me

Wait 2.5 hours

It was coming north, at least enough to get out area before turning ENE.