psuhoffman

I know a pure snowfall map is not the best way to break down a threat window...but I already laid out what I like about the pattern yesterday and nothing has changed. So just for sh!ts and giggles, this is a good looking 7 day mean for a week 2 period. First of all its 7 days not a 16 day mean... and at day 10+ you're not going to have a uniform track across guidance so you get this washed out area of snowfall, but its centered on us and extends well to our south and north...plus the "extra" snow to our NW is lake effect not synoptic, we are the epicenter of the snow max on this plot from synoptic snow. This is about as good a signal as you will see on a week 2 snow mean. I was waiting for the ensembles snow plots to start to match the potential and todays 12z GEFS did. Again a snow map is not that useful but it shows what I wanted.

There is a window around the 18-20 where the boundary could shift to our NW. But it depends on wave spacing. Right now things are trending towards a bit too much space between the departing trough/50/50 and the next wave amplifying a bit too far west creating a ridge in between. But that can change...but even if it did go down that way we are only talking about a 2 day period and one wave that would likely cut to our NW. After that we would be back in the game and the next wave becomes a threat...again contingent on the details of wave spacing. We don't have blocking anymore so we would need something to time up correctly, come at us while we have the 50/50 from a departing wave, have waves come at us in pieces and not phased. We pulled it off multiple times in 2014 and 2015. I know it hasnt worked much lately but as I pointed out yesterday one of the main culprits for that was the full latitude -PDO induced central pacific pattern. That causes systems to want to amplify way too much into the western US. If the pacific ridge is displaced northeast which directs the cold into the eastern US more it gives us a much better chance. We had that in January 2022.

Not necessarily, there are two types of Nina base states. One with a flat pacific ridge and more westward displaced north american trough (typically in western canada or worse into the southwest US) and one with a more poleward pacific ridge which pushes the downstream trough eastward and extends cold into the eastern US. In the former nina type the eastern US is a torch and there is typically no snow anywhere near us, think years like 2008, 2012, 2023. The storm track doesn't matter at all in these years since there is no cold to work with. In the latter(years like 2001, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2018, 2022) our typical fail mode is that storms tend to develop too late for our area and miller b us. The STJ is suppressed and the northern stream systems get going too late. Places just to our northeast Philly to Boston did much better in those years. In neither type of nina are lake cutters the primary reason we don't get much snow.

GEFS finally starting to show a snowy signal day 10-15

Some of us had a strong suspicion that wasn't going to cut based on the longwave pattern. Ji pointed it out! This is more complicated, we don't have a ridiculous block, but there is cold around and there are plenty of other ways to get a snowstorm if cold is around. We basically just can't have all the energy phase and cut, any number of other solutions end up with snow for us with that scenario. But it COULD cut, there is no block to stop it if a strong wave comes along...but I'll still take my chances with that look.

Regarding 12z Euro...I know it ends up Ice to rain, but I'll take my chances with a gulf wave approaching us from the TN valley with a 1045 high over upstate NY. There are so many paths to a win there, basically anything other than it phasing early and bombing out to 989 in the lakes and I'll bet against that at this range.

BTW, I am not so sure we actually want storms to look "suppressed" in the long range anymore. That was a guidance bias 20 years ago, and we still say "just where we want it" when guidance has some southern wave day 10, but is it really what we want? How often has that worked out lately? Actually over the last 5 years or so a lot of our snow was rain on the guidance day 10. More that I can remember than storms that were suppressed and trended north. Pattern recognition is important here. When a model run shows some snowstorm day 13 despite the fact that almost every pattern driver is wrong we can be 90% sure its going to end up rain. But when the pattern in general is good, I am getting to the point where I would rather see a wave over or even slightly north of us than squashed in the long ranges. If cold is nearby there are multiple paths to win. A wave can end up weaker and south, it could come out in pieces, a lead can cut and a caboose can get us, a lead wave can become a 50/50 for a following wave, we can get a front end CAD thump... But guidance has become pretty good at picking up on suppression and its rare anymore that some wave thats down in the deep south and suppressed off the SE coast ends up coming up the coast. Its been a really long time since that happened.

I would like a redo, with a slightly less suppressive 50/50 location next time

DOH

They cancelled registration for a weekend program I oversee last Saturday because of the 30 min snowshower that hit Baltimore Friday evening....and now they will probably cancel our make up and last chance to register before the program starts because of 1" of snow.

Milk was such a horrible choice

I could blow smoke up your arse and pretend I know what's going to happen like some others do.

Wait I need an excuse to do that?

I am uncertain where we go following January 20th or so. But I am a lot more optimistic than I was a month ago. I was on the record expecting Jan 20 on to be pretty bad...so it still would not surprise me. BUT... the PDO is now about neutral and heading the right way. The Nino is incredibly weak and has failed to assert much dominance on the pacific longwave pattern. The high latitudes have been more favorable than I expected. Could it all fall apart and flip to typical Nina Feb torch...sure, but some of the more neutral PDO nina's didn't even do that. Feb 2006 wasn't that bad and we got a MECS. I am now ambiguous on my expectations post Jan 20, I could see it go either way.

I am not an MJO expert nor do I pour over the forcing plots with the same regularity as some of the MJO zealots, however, I've noted over the years a pattern where the MJO tends to "fit in with" the pattern not necessarily drive it in a different direction. Its symbiotic. When we've been stuck in crap winters waiting for some MJO wave to save us, it never does, even when it gets into the central pacific there ends up being conflicting forcing in the MC running interference or the wave is too weak to effectively impact the pattern or some other such excuse. And many many moons ago when we used to get good winters...the same would happen in the other direction...we had somewhat hostile MJO waves in good winters that failed to wreck the pattern in the same way as a hostile wave in a bad winter would. Because, as you pointed out, there is some residual conflicting forcing still in a favorable place or whatever reason, but the base state is usually harder to break than simply "here comes the MJO". If it was that simple we would all be better forecasters.

He relies too much on the MJO, which is just one factor not THE factor. He also has been wrong so much lately, but worse than that, I've become convinced he is dishonest, because over the years he has said things that I KNOW he knows is not true, used certain indicators in opposite ways to fit a narrative. Now I will admit usually that narrative is the opposite and he is hyping cold and snow, but he did make a forecast for a warm low snow winter so maybe now he is just trying to fit that narrative. I dont know, but given his track record over the last decade or so...not sure how anyone can trust anything he says anymore.

SOLD STICK HOLD BUY PLEASE

Why should anyone care what that clown thinks. He is a joke. I’m glad he thinks it’s gonna be bad.

The storm that just fringed me to the south was rain on all guidance at this range.

I think it depends on other variables. An epo alone still won’t do it. Especially if the epo is linked to a wpo ridge with a full latitude central pac ridge. That leads to too much SER. The key to 2014 and 2015 were other variables going our way. In both the pacific had a trough under the ridge. We have that now although super long range guidance wants to establish a canonical Nina look but I don’t buy it until it gets inside 15 days. It’s been stuck at day 17-20 all year. 2014 there was a ridge from the epo over the pole that depressed the trough in the east. 2015 a TPV lobe got stuck in Quebec doing the same. Those were critical factors in making those years work. We seem to have some of those same factors on long range guidance. My interest in the pattern goes beyond the epo but there are other more critical similarities to 2014-2015 as well. Those matter more imo than the epo.

I’m sorry but our bar now is “it’s better than our worst winter ever”? We’ve really been traumatized

Gfs is probably gonna suck bc the fv3 does and they are usually similar. Stronger southern wave means less moisture transport into our area. We’re actually better off now with a weaker wave that allows moisture to stream north along the trough.

SREf beefed up a bit fwiw

3k. Sold

He might mean the 3k NAM which has a period of maybe mod snow for an hour.