psuhoffman

I would take my chances on a -EPO/AO/NAO in February!

Have you noticed there is a minority but not insignificant camp of guidance that now tanks the AO/NAO again around day 10!

Just over 50". Not only did I get into the southern edge of the big totals on those 2 HECS storms that hit just north of our area...but I jacked a few times on smaller storms and marginal events...I was like the epicenter of the positive snowfall anomalies for the whole east coast that winter...just got super lucky. It happens. This year has been the inverse of that so far. Well even worse just north of me, at least I had that nice little 4" snow in November and 4" last week isn't nothing. I am content with the winter so far. Sure I'd love to jack every freaking time but that isn't how it goes, except maybe in Ji's head.

I think in about 5 days we will have a much better idea of where the MJO is heading

I don't know what he is calling for but the MJO is conflicted right now. The GFS and GGEM take it on a grand tour of the warm phases but the Euro and CFS kill the wave after phase 3 and have conflicting signals after that, which balance out to a COD plot on the diagrams lol. The GFS is trending weaker the last 2 days also...towards the idea of not having some god awful MC MJO traverse.

Couple random things I've noticed... First of all...do you know how close this is to a monster storm? Dig that SW near the Minn Canada border a little more, slightly more SER and....BOOM Then...this is not the majority solution across guidance yet, but this has been showing up on quote a few runs, even the op euro a couple times, enough so that we shouldn't just assume we are headed where the consensus has been indicating... Regardless...across all guidance the pacific jet continues to undercut the ridging in the pacific, and so long as that continues cold we be directed more east than in recent years.

Glad for that, my kids have enjoyed the snow as well. I can make up ground later in the season, plus I had that crazy lucky good 2021 season so it events out in the long run.

Snowfall is really fluky, especially at our latitude.

Regardless of what our snowfall total ends up, its been a "real winter" which has become rare lately.

It could trend either way, but there is no blocking so there could be more movement either direction with that wave than there was with most of the recent threats that had a track mostly locked in by a stationary blocked flow.

Depends, if that plot is 100% accurate yes. But we know at 15 days out there are errors and my "educated guess" at the most probable error is that its got way too much SER there. There is a lot of arctic air being discharged directly into the central US there, and so long as there ramains some trough in the pacific under the ridge my guess is that is going to get directed more east than that prog there shows.

It often shows something first, because it jumps all over the place run to run, but how is that useful since you don't know which solutions it spits out are right and wich are the crazy tangents.

Thanks. If you look at the plot I posted, those features all dump a LOT of cold into the went central US, and will exert pressure trying to press the trough east. The trough near Hawaii pushes the WPO EPO ridge poleward and east slightly, this mitigates the risk of something cutting off into the southwest typically. The ridge over the top combined with the TPV displaced south where it is dumps a ton of arctic air into western Canada and then the US and its going to press. I think the SER there is overdone. The big difference between that plot and when we had a horrible SER are the troughing in the pacific under the northern latitude ridge, and the -AO over the top. Those 2 features change the equation a lot.

Looking way out, I continue to see signs the pattern is not progressing to the typical Nina Feb hellscape I expected. Actually...if the 3 features I marked here are correct...that trough will end up more southeast than it is on guidance right now.

That wave strikes me as a 3-6" type thing wherever it ends up. Maybe slightly more in the jack zone. Similar to a lot of those boundary waves that popped up at the last minute in 2014 and 2015.

That last .08" makes all the difference

The models are less consistent in their errors, but that is a good thing. It's because they are better. So there is no one obvious automatic error anymore. The errors are based on smaller mistakes they may be making specific to each synoptic setup. But we know at day 7 or 10 there is likely to be an error. More so in some patterns than others. So we have to ask "what is the most likely error being made here" by each specific model in each specific situation.

It depends... I don't think as a blanket rule we just want something to our south anymore, and that was a typical bias across almost all guidance 20 years ago. Especially the GFS. Now it's much more nuanced. In a blocking regime, frankly, storms have been more likely to trend south recently. But each pattern is different and each synoptic situation is different. In the coming pattern it is a lot more likely that things could trend north significantly if the models are overdoing the amplitude of the TPV or wrong in the location of features at range. Of course if a NS wave were to come along right over the top it could squash it, like that storm in March 2014 that was supposed to hit PA then came south because of a wave over the top. But even in a progressive wave pattern it feels recently like the errors are more split between north and south...they are just larger in a non blocking regime since there is less locking in the track of the waves. I will say this though...in a progressive wave pattern more amplified trends mean north...and I like being on the side of getting to root for a bigger more amplified storm. When a system is north of you, you're kinda left rooting for the storm to be weaker and more pathetic, thats no fun lol.

In the end rain is a bigger risk than suppressed probably.

Yall are funny. The gfs is barely a miss to the SE. the ggem is barely a miss to the NW. meanwhile the solution shifts around every run. And we’re worrying about what? Obviously the final solution isn’t going to be known for a while.

I’m surprised he hasn’t found a way to say it’s a combo of both lol

Fine I’ll stop poking the bear.

It’s a secret message to Howard

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