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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    What happened?
  2. psuhoffman
    It MIGHT be a hybrid but really it's just a west to east system that jumps the mountains...they all do that. Technically they all jump as pressure areas redevelop and translate but don't move uniformly the way most think, but they are always going to "jump" over terrain features like that when there is some CAD and resistance. But that alone does't make it a miller b. The euro put more emphasis on the northern stream and washed out the southern stream system more, better to the north worse to the south It was odd in that the euro was much better initially, it had by far the best look out west with a sharper trough and more consolidated system coming east...but then it just washed it out into the confluence. It really didn't want to amplify again on the east coast. If you took the start of the euro and combined it with what the gfs is doing with the trough later you would end up with a big storm, but I do wonder if the euro isnt sniffing out the hostile flow in the east better. EPS will be telling shortly.
  3. psuhoffman
    This... I know cold powder is nice, and there is something special about taking a walk at night after a powder event in the crisp air and seeing the snow sparkle in the light... BUT...with a kid now that loves to play in the snow there is way more that I can do with wet snow then dry powder...its nice to look at but no good for snowmen or snowball fights or making a snow fort. Plus for me...living on top of a ridge where the wind can be fierce wet snow is better because it won't blow away. Sometimes after a powder event half my snow will end up in drifts or in the woods.
  4. psuhoffman
    I've heard the opposite but those biases are kinda old and there have been several upgrades to each since then so I have no idea if it's still true at all or just a weenie thing some say to justify their snow goggles.
  5. psuhoffman
    would you rather have the pac puke pattern back?
  6. psuhoffman
    You can have 8" and I will be totally happy with 5. Just no crazy sharp cutoff that rarely does actually happen between you and me. January 2010 might be the only time I can actually remember getting fringed when the cities did well. Only 10/15 miles south of me got 5" though so a slight adjustment to that storm and I would have been very happy too.
  7. psuhoffman
    We both know 5 is not wsw in our counties:) because of where we live we get a warning event more often...that doesn't mean our warning criteria is different...
  8. psuhoffman
    the spread is weird and I do think indicates the delicate situation here. Typically the hive mind is in effect at this range but this run has extreme spread. That, to me, says this could go either way depending on small variances in the strength of the vort and coastal development. The euro and EPS will be more telling of course...if we see a similar phenomenon there then we might have to entertain the possibility this could evolve towards a more amplified coastal situation. If the EPS uniformly rejects the idea then its logical to conclude the GEFS is suffering from bad data or bad physics.
  9. psuhoffman
    As this evolves more towards a coastal coming from the south vs a west to east wave with WAA it is becoming a higher risk/reward type situation where the chances for a big event might be going up, so are are the chances of a miss or mostly a miss after some very light snow with the initial wave.
  10. psuhoffman
    Sure it does. It has 5 members yea I mean if I am being a deb there is a 50% chance of a crap outcome. But that also means a 50% chance of a VERY good outcome, keeping in mind those are 10-1 and some of those 3-4" members are actually 5-6" given ratios here. And a 25% chance of a big hit which isnt something to sneeze at considering how rare those 8" plus storms are.
  11. psuhoffman
    Ehh its not as bad as I feared. Those 5 big hits are NICE though and I guess having a 25% chance of that outcome is not too bad a bet to take. Another 5 would be moderate hits and I would be totally happy with it. 10/20 would be unacceptable to me (here). A few more of those would probably be deemed acceptable to the DC area.
  12. psuhoffman
    that is exactly what I was afraid of. Big difference between a 5" mean from a lot of 4-6" hits and a 5" mean from a few 12" hits and a lot of misses. ETA: thats why the snowfall mean maps are useless as you said...seeing the plots for each member is more telling
  13. psuhoffman
    naw that GEFS run is NICE...I would say stick and be totally happy with that. Unfortunately we know that isn't how it works. I have to look at the ind members too and see if the pretty good snowfall mean to the north of DC is due to a few big hits skewing what is otherwise a high bust risk or if its a pretty uniform 4-5" in Maryland.
  14. psuhoffman
    I would be happy with that but currently the runs we were discussing did not give me .2-.4 qpf. Not true. I was totally happy with dec 2009 and south of me got more. Same with feb 5 2010. Same with Feb 2015 when I got 7" and south of me 10-12". Say this trends North some and DC gets 7" I would be totally happy with 4-5". But if just south of me gets 6-8" and I get 1-2" not so much. It's just a matter of degrees and totals. I'm usually happy regardless of what anyone else gets if I get 4"+. That's kind of my threshold. I don't do the Ji thing and compare to everyone around me. But if I get 2" and nearby gets 5+ then I'm left a little disappointed.
  15. psuhoffman
    Where is this miller b crap coming from? Look at the animation. Storm comes out of the gulf coast and up the coast. Classic miller a.
  16. psuhoffman
    I'm not hugging anything. Way too many moving parts, especially if this comes out in pieces. It's likely we still have more twists and turns to go. But I like simple and this is complicated. Complicated often ends up without snow on my lawn. Lol
  17. psuhoffman
    Yea we are one happy family but unfortunately there are kind of two climos in here. The nw 1/3 of this forum would much prefer the idea from a couple days ago of a storm coming up to our west into the TN Valley and a big WAA thump. The coastal idea can work here too but it can also be a total fail as we have experienced lately.
  18. psuhoffman
    no it's a miller a but if it develops too late it could miss areas up here thats all. The storms that missed us to the southeast the last 2 Januarys were miller a storms. Not every miller a becomes a HECS for us.
  19. psuhoffman
    me too but nothing comes easy, this can still work IF even for me IF the system is slightly more amplified but that's too many if's for my liking. Would rather go back to the easy can't miss idea of a WAA thump into a cold high and not be worrying about phasing and perfect track and all that jazz...definitely like the chances down your way better than up here ATT.
  20. psuhoffman
    Kidding aside, even up here, that is sitting there "close enough" like I say for the final adjustment north to save even me up here.
  21. psuhoffman
    "WE"? lol no thanks
  22. psuhoffman
    my only fear for those of us north of DC...this could be evolving into an all or nothing setup. The coastal idea ups the ante BUT it could also rob the WAA and dynamics from the initial wave (or that could ride north of us) and then the coastal could be mostly a miss for places NW of 95. That would be the doomsday scenario here. Of course at this range its equally likely the coastal ends up slightly more amplified and is a hit for all. I guess it depends on if your a glass half empty/full kinda person. But this setup is higher risk reward.
  23. psuhoffman
    Do you think you could repeat this again and again just in case some people missed it the first 3 times.
  24. psuhoffman
    Yep, that is my take looking at the evolution. It might not improve our ground truth this run but it took a step towards a bigger possible solution. Sometimes I like to not look at the precip because qpf is one of the least accurate model outputs and can be very fluky especially with the GFS and can bias my opinion of the run. Just looking at the h5 and mslp often gives me a better view of what is going on without the pretty colors and clown snow output biasing it.
  25. psuhoffman
    LOL, I havent even looked at the precip panels at all yet but that is exactly what I would have predicted just looking at H5 and MSLP
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