psuhoffman

@mappy @H2O @WxUSAF not that my opinion matters either but I would say its time to break this out into its own thread simply so the long range discussion doesn't get totally overwhelmed. Obviously this will be the most discussed thing (rightfully so) now but there is still some pretty good stuff regarding the upcoming pattern to talk about also.

I'll gladly rejoice when you are put back on timeout!!!!!

Did you forget where you live?

GFS would imply a 4-8" front side thump south to north across our area then mixing and another 1-2" on the backside. Great run. Everyone should sign up for that. Now we wait for the Euro to break our hearts and give Boston 3 feet.

That still isn't as suppressive as last time there is room for that to adjust north a bit.

Since early December I was targeting the 15-20th for a pattern change back to cold and snowy. The way I came to that wasn't that complicated. I had identified analogs back in the fall. 1958, 1964, 1966, 1969, 1978, 1987, 1995, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2015 were my best matches overall. Threw out 1995 because it was the one clear outlier. Yea it could happen but when one year sticks out like that its usually an anomaly and better off just tossing it. A fluke can happen in any year but not going to waste too much time obsessing over it. 1964 was the other anomaly in the other direction in that it was the only year that was wall to wall cold and snowing. Winter set in mid December and didn't let up. So I kind of tossed that wrt timing patterns. For the rest...some of them featured an early cold/snow period then a big warm up, and a couple were just straight warm early on...but they all featured warmth for a significant stretch in December into January then a flip to cold and snow. So when the warm showed up in December I wasn't surprised or discouraged. Then timing up the flip back was a matter of looking at the timing of the patterns in those other years and looking at the likely progression of the pattern this year. Looking at the most similar years regarding when the warmth set in and the progression of the mjo this year the most likely flip back was mid January. Of course maybe I just got lucky with a good guess lol. But I can't and won't take any credit for a specific event, that is impossible to identify from range. I love the 20-22 look though. Before that, the threat this weekend isnt a bad setup, its the sort of thing that can sneak in there during the pattern transition. It's certainly not the classic see it from a mile away thing but there is enough there to think it has a legit chance. A lot of moving parts in a fairly progressive transient setup still though so models will struggle. It's not the kind of thing that will lock in from 7 days out. As for "what history suggests we can expect" I am a bit handicapped by the climate composites being unavailable due to our inability to put responsible adults (ON BOTH SIDES) in charge of our national finances. Just from my memory back when I was looking at patterns from analog years the closest match to the pattern taking shape day 15 (and expected to evolve after that looking at the CFS and Euro weeklies) would be perhaps 1964, 1966, 1978 and 2010. 1958 was also close but not until mid February so lets toss that due to timing. 1969 was good on the atlantic side but a pretty crappy pacific with very little EPO/PNA help. 1987 wasn't too bad either but also with less blocking and less EPO help. 2003 and 2015 the blocking was all on the Pacific side. If we actually get the ridge bride look with blocking in the NAO domain but also higher pressure across to the EPO side...that lines up best with some of our most epic snow periods. Obviously we remember 2010. 1966 after the pattern flip BWI between January 22 and Feb 2 had 2.1", 7.2", 12.1", and 2.7" and then a 8.4" storm later in February also. 1978 from January 13th on BWI had 3.7", 2.4", 5.6", 8.5", 2.8", and 4.8". So IF we actually get that look to develop it would be pretty difficult for us not to cash in with several snowstorms...and a historic run isn't out of the question.

I agree the Eagles will need to score a LOT to win...maybe not 40 though because of the way the Eagles move the ball. They eat up a huge amount of time...they don't make many big yardage plays and their drives eat time and they do it on purpose to avoid exposing their secondary more than necessary. So if the Eagles are moving the ball and scoring the Saint's wont be able to put up 40 points, not because the Eagles defense is stopping them but simply because there won't be that many possessions in the game. The last matchup got out of hand because the Eagles offense wasn't doing anything, and worse Wentz got rattled and started throwing balls up for grabs and threw 3 interceptions that only piled onto the bad situation. I could certainly see this game getting ugly and out of hand. But if the Eagles are moving the ball with 13 play 8 minute drives...they would only need to score about 30-35 to win the game. As for how likely that is...not very, but neither was them putting up 41 in the super bowl so I am done betting against them. ETA: turns out the kick last night was tipped at the line. Can't remember another team I followed that makes more "have to" plays at the end of games than this team the last 2 seasons. Of course I haven't followed any championship teams that closely before so maybe that is just normal for a really good team.

Yes I was thinking that after the game...but USUALLY in my opinion a lot of those teams that win in a crazy way just weren't that good and as the competition steps up they are likely to lose playing a better team the next week. So there is that... of course you could say the Eagles fit that description also, last year aside this season they were only a 9-7 team that got hot late but certainly not the quality of the Saints all year and are going on the road after a few exhausting weeks of playing must win games and playing a rested team. So all the intangibles are on the side of the Saints.

In fairness "he" is never right or wrong about anything. The ecmwf is. ETA: oops sorry NJ you are right...it's getting real finally. Time to take the banter to banter.

Surface track on the 6z gfs is very similar to the November 15 storm. Obviously in January results could be better.

SNOW

Did someone say January 20th lol

I wouldn't mind another shot. I doubt Foles goes the first 3 quarters doing nothing the way Wentz did last time out.

Dude why you telling everyone what my basement looks like?

Thanks. It's ok we kinda like the hate. Lol

I agree. I love both. Ideally we could keep both. But I think letting Foles go will be a mistake. He just wins. He is money late in big games. I can't remember a time he didn't get it done when they needed a late score. I can remember so many games going back to his first run in 2013 where he scored late to win a game. The only losses I can remember are times he left with the lead and the defense couldn't hold it like almost tonight. Wentz could become that too. But he has injury issues and why would you pass on someone that has now proven to be the guy that can win big games. That's what your looking for right. Why take a chance on someone that might be the guy when you found someone why is. That said Wentz is really good and has HOF potential so I get the hesitancy to move on. It's going to be a really hard decision to make this offseason. Only way they win next week is if Foles plays like he did in the super bowl.

I would definitely pick the saints but it will be a better game. Our defense is playing much better. Some is the replacements getting used to the system. They were all brand new when you saw us back in mid season and Avonte Maddox and Darren Soroles coming back along with the offensive line getting healthy was huge. Plus Foles is just playing much better than Wentz was. Right now Foles is just a better QB. Wentz has huge upside long term. Tough choice coming. If Foles wins another SB that would make the choice for them I guess. But I suspect a rested at home saints team is pretty close to a brick wall next week but I suspect Foles and the defense will put up more of a fight this time.

Karma is making up for 50 years of suffering in Philly. Lol http://imgur.com/RhFMfij http://imgur.com/rybw8i2

Gefs looks less suppressive though. The height field relaxed some over the east. And there isn't like a ton of big NC snows in the members. It was just weaker with the system overall. If either the stj or NS systems trend stronger this time i think it hits. The flow isn't that suppressive. It will squash some weak sauce Vort but if it's amped coming into the east like last time (or most systems the last several months) it won't get forced under that much.

cold on the gefs at the end. That is a stable triple trough alignment with high latitude blocking. That pattern can stick around a while. It's as hard to break down as a crap one that is stable, locked in, and fully supported by the global pattern drivers.

Family and life has to do with it but some of why I don't watch much unless the eagles are involved anymore is that. I love defense. All my favorite games from my childhood were defensive games. House of pain game. Body bag game. Maybe it's because I grew up watching great defense and mediocre offenses. Eagles used to win games 10-6 back then. I remember a big game they won to make the playoffs 6-0. Lol. I know the game changed but come on. My favorite play of the year was that hit the bears put on the Vikings receiver last week. Blew him up. I was out of my seat. And it wasn't even my team. Feels like the NFL want to take that away. If I wanted to watch a 45-40 game I would watch arena football.

When a good offense is playing a mediocre defense that leads to a lot of points. The rest of the time it just leads to unwatchable football.

Ok question to fans of other teams. I don't get to watch much football other then eagles games anymore but it seems like half the points we give up anymore are on drives extended by kinda ticky tac penalties on 3rd and 4th down. This isn't necessarily a "refs are killing us" post because most were technically a penalty even if picky and I've seen the same go our way too. But is that just normal now in the NFL? Maybe the eagles are just undisciplined on big 3rd downs on defense. I dunno. Just wondering. But it's annoying as F

That's why I wish we could cash in early in the pattern. Then most (not ji) will chill out and not make this place a dumpster fire with every bad model run.