psuhoffman

This is a case where the mean is misleading. As we get closer a mean pressure can look better because of a convergence on a general track and amplitude. So by losing members that had a really flat solution it will make the new consensus better. But if that consensus is no good for us and if lost a minority cluster that was NW and had a good solution (but wasn't impacting the mean slp plots much because they were removed from the majority region of low pressure and outnumbered) it's actually a bad run. EPS moved towards a more amped overall solution but late developing for us and lost some members from the tucked in camp that blasted us. Now if future runs continue to trend more amplified then it could become better again but this run itself was a slight step back from 0z imo.

He is one of the worst talking heads. He throws out everything and the kitchen sink each winter then spins like crazy later. I don't care what he says.

At least the shutout pattern after is only like 48 hours now.

This is close. There is no monster vort (at least right now) this time over the top running interference. There is actually a high up over Quebec this time vs over us last time at this range. If we get the same trend in a stronger stj wave and relaxation of the flow as last time this could correct more amplified and north. Last time there was a pretty significant lobe of the PV along with a vigorous NS system sitting right over New England and it trended worse offsetting gains in other areas. This seems less hostile from a suppression pov if the stj system trends stronger.

The hostile period doesn't look that bad. The ridge that is the first to cut off the PAC puke jet to create our threat next weekend will progress across the country before the next one builds. Because the continent is still pretty warm overall even a brief transient ridge will bring some warmth. But the next ridge our west quickly builds in and the next stj system cuts underneath and we have another snow threat by the 17-18th. That's actually how this kind of pattern might play out but as the Conus gets flooded with more and more cold from the predominantly -epo those transient ridges won't be as warm. Frankly I don't care if we get a 2 day warm up between storms when there is enough cold around and everything is digging under us. But I'm sure some of the snowpack chasers here will throw things at me for saying that. But as the pattern matures the relaxes between troughs won't be nearly as warm. This is the typical step down you have talked about.

@Bob Chill perfect pov on where we're at. The stj has been just about perfect for our purposes all fall/winter. If that remains and we alter the PAC jet such that cold is in the neighborhood it's just a matter of time before one of these (or more) phase up and we get one of those monster solutions to happen imo.

If I am remembering that right I was in NJ at the time about 15 miles south of Philly and we were expecting 6-10" of snow and ended up with wind and flurries. Atlantic City got like 18" though. Coastal scraper with a crazy tight back gradient across NJ. 18+ at shore and nothing at Philly. We would not like a repeat. The beaches have done well enough lately. Frankly we are way overdue for a storm where NYC rains and we get snow. Those seemed way more common years ago. Not like every year common but not super rare. But it's been a while. Eta that's partially why their snowfall avg has been going up while ours has been dropping a bit. We used to get some storms every couple years that would track up the coast in a northerly enough track that D.C. And especially west of 95 in the western mid Atlantic was favored and NYC would have rain issues.

Wow gefs with a strong signal. I might have to start taking this seriously.

The threat I wish was gone was him.

great so you can stop posting for a while.

High hemispheric energies warning

Fixed

When Wentz is healthy (rare) it's a good debate. But Foles is definitely better than the banged up shell of himself Wentz was all year this season.

The only think awful are his posts. In fairness he seems like a troll and that implies he doesn't like snow so maybe it was "awful to him".

Why do you like drawing lines in the sand for Mother Nature?

Lol good luck with that Miller b bro That was a weird hybrid with an anomalous south h5 cutoff low pass. Kinda like the second feb 2010 storm or the march 2013 storm. Yea I know that one sucked but because of boundary temps. A month earlier and that was a 10" snow. Those have a slightly better chance then a pure miller b where the upper low develops and cuts off later. But this doesn't matter it's all fiction. I was just pointing out he said the gfs looked awful past day 10 when in reality it's a pretty good look there.

You said it "looks awful past day 10". You were the one that was looking long range. So there was like 2 warm days and you decided it was awful?

Btw what's the date on that gfs fantasy storm? Just wondering.

Yea this looks awful. Did you take model reading lessons from Chuck?

1. The guidance didn't have the trough and threat day 7 a couple days ago either 2. The true flip in the Pacific pattern isn't established until day 13/14. There probably will be a mild period ~day 9-13. That's not a new revelation. Still looks like towards the 20th things should improve 3. What is your deal seriously? And you still never answered my question regarding persistence in banter.

Dallas was 10-6, the Eagles are 9-7 but won 5 of their last 6. When they played in Dallas a few weeks ago the game went into overtime. The first game was also a one possession game that went down to the last drive. The talent and play of those two teams right now is negligible imo. Not sure why you are scared of the Cowboys. Your loss was in Dallas in a game they needed WAY more than you did. Dallas was in a street fight with the Eagles for the division, you were walking away with it. That matters. When you faced the Eagles you were at home, the Eagles were at their most banged up point of the season ( I think we were missing 6 defensive starters in that game) and were a hot mess at that point. They turned things around and got some key players back. You are probably biased by your personal experience vs the two teams this season but honestly they are both about equal right now at this moment.

Jokes aside, I do it too, but it's kind of silly rooting for a specific team to "win" because they would be easier when unless its a fluke kind of win...they BEAT the team you thought was better. LOL. I got burned doing that very thing for years. I remember rooting for Tampa in 2002 because we had crushed them 4 times in a row including that season then they killed us in the NFC championship. I remember "rooting" for Carolina in 2003 because we crushed them during the regular season down there and then they beat us at home in the NFC Championship. I remember "rooting" for the Cardinals in 2009 because we beat them by like 30 points on Thanksgiving that year then they beat us in the NFC Championship. Not saying the Eagles are the worse matchup, in reality the Saints are the team I would least like to play, it's a bad matchup for the Eagles banged up secondary, BUT in general the rooting for the "weaker" team thing hasnt worked well for me.

I am done making predictions with them. I left them for dead weeks ago then they suddenly go on a tear and beat two division winners back to back and look like its last year again. I have no idea if the last 3 weeks was just a fluke or somehow they got back to whatever mojo they had all last season. We will see tomorrow.

I actually would keep Foles and trade Wentz for a top pick and a player. Not because I think Wentz isnt good, or that Foles is necessarily better, but its obvious Foles is "good enough" to win with and Wentz is a major injury risk to give that kind of money too and if they choose Wentz Foles walks for nothing...but if they keep Foles its cheaper and they can get something good for Wentz. Makes sense to me but I think the team is committed to Wentz no matter what.

Don't worry about it you're not making it past the Eagles now that we got Big D*ck Nick back in control.