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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    CIPs analogs are lol. Between the TN Valley and northeast all the biggest hits are there. PD79, 83, 96, pd2, dec 09, feb10 all in the analogs. Maybe this has more upside then I've been giving it.
  2. psuhoffman
    Every once in a while...back in March 2017 when that storm first got into NAM range it was WAY west of all other guidance with that mid level warmth and blasting the sleet way inland when all the other guidance was showing snow. I dismissed it and wasn't worried..."typical nam bias" and all. Guess what was right.
  3. psuhoffman
    I doubt a closed upper low in Iowa is going to miss us to the south lol (all NAM disclaimers pertain) Hopefully it holds this so we can get our first NAMing tomorrow sometime.
  4. psuhoffman
    what do the nogaps, ngm, eta, and avn have to say?
  5. psuhoffman
    I am thankful that this first threat has kind of materialized at relatively short leads (at least compared to some of our threats lately) so that we didn't have to put up with the complete mess it would have been if we had to track something from day 10 all the way in every run! God I hope this first storm does something good and people can chill out (not Ji of course) just a little bit with a good snow finally in their back pocket.
  6. psuhoffman
    seriously? Let's take a walk out back...
  7. psuhoffman
    I just want one EPIC snowstorm that blasts the megalopolis so I can tag all the tools on twitter that spent months arguing about the type of nino and ask "so is this a modoki or basin wide blizzard?"
  8. psuhoffman
    Ebb Valley? My son currently goes to the preschool program at Manchester Valley but he will attend there soon. I can look down and see the school from my yard.
  9. psuhoffman
    I Would be pretty bent if I had gone 3 weeks without pay and no end in sight.
  10. psuhoffman
    Everyone after today's runs...
  11. psuhoffman
    He punts winter every year after we don't get a foot of concrete paste on Christmas.
  12. psuhoffman
    He is only down on it because he will miss it.
  13. psuhoffman
    The 18z euro is almost as amped as the nam lol
  14. psuhoffman
    Even your posts can't ruin this happy hour run.
  15. psuhoffman
    Chuck aside is it safe to say the pattern has changed now?
  16. psuhoffman
    Chuck said no
  17. psuhoffman
    Just one run but the trends today are nice. I think there is a limit to how far northwest this can go given the high on top. Those runs the other day that had a front end thump to dryslot are probably the worse case scenario for a north trend. Of course a miss south still being the worse case but quickly becoming less likely issue to the south.
  18. psuhoffman
    Really? Thanks we should probably start talking about that!!!
  19. psuhoffman
    There is a similarity between the two. If you displaced the timing about 2 weeks earlier this year it makes sense. Remember there was a storm in early December in 2010 also. This year there was a storm mid November and early December with a cold blocky pattern. The flip warm happened 10 days earlier this year and the flip back looks 10 days earlier. No two years are exactly alike but it's hard to ignore the similarities between the two so far. Let's hope those similarities continue!
  20. psuhoffman
    Gefs EPS and Geps all look great at day 15. Sub seasonal guidance all show it lasting through February.
  21. psuhoffman
    Ok I know it's the nam but...
  22. psuhoffman
    It was a weenie run. Keeps getting better each day.
  23. psuhoffman
    Hits maybe?
  24. psuhoffman
    I could be wrong but I think the Fv3 is still based on a hydrostatic display of the atmosphere. If so then we are still tinkering and adding fixes into a flawed base. The non hydrostatic euro is better. I don't think ncep has the money to make that an option and so the best we can do is compensate but we are still building on an inferior framework.
  25. psuhoffman
    for now...
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