psuhoffman

A system crashes into the PAC nw and that does interfere with the system in the east day 10. But that's a temporary issue and it's on one op day 10. It's not something worth worrying about. Most guidance suggests too amped is as likely as not. Anyways he seems like a troll and I give his posts as much weight as I do chuck. I would suggest ignoring him.

I don't see where the nao is positive on the gefs or the trough out west other then maybe a very brief period of a day or so when a system crashes but then it undercuts so that's not the same thing.

One thing that could argue for an improvement with qpf late is the guidance continues to juice up to our west and bring that further east each run before just killing it. Perhaps that trend continues and it doesn't shear out as much as predicted. Grasping at straws here.

I left my translator at home but I think he was kinda saying what I was discussing with showme and bob earlier about our bigger problem here being the upstream issues out west regarding the low crashing into CA undercutting and the compression of the trough and not the suppression to our north.

I honestly don't know what you are looking at with your assessment. If we get an over amplified trough we COULD have a cutter...or something COULD go OTS but you were talking about the NAO going positive and the trough in the west and I see nothing except an oddball op run at range showing anything like that.

Just saw the 6 hour UK panels and yea it pretty much totally skunks us from 72 on, all the precip DC area north is from the WAA wave in front...all the precip after that is well south and east of DC. But it did have a better initial wave. That is probably all we have left now to root for, the idea of a re-amplifying coastal is pretty dead ATT. We need that initial WAA wave to be as healthy as possible because that is probably all we got.

That right there might be the best "general" long range look we have had yet for snow

must have fallen apart after 72 hours then because there was almost that much already by then.

There isn't anything locking that in per say though... the pattern will have cold available due to a -AO and a favorable PNA/EPO combo...but the NAO around that period (while ok isn't really a true NAO block yet....I do think its coming later) and so if you consolidate too much energy into one system and dump the whole trough into the central US we could end up with a big bombed out cutter. Given the look of the pattern...if we want a lot of snow, I would prefer a train of weaker (not weak) storms running the boundary. It could work if the trough axis is perfect but it could also cut inland as many major full latitude trough bombed out storms do.

The MJO is a major pattern driver when it is amplified or, often times, when the hemispheric wave guide does not have any other larger-scale forcings acting upon it. When the MJO goes into the COD, there are several other forces that can act upon or guide the weather pattern. Additionally, the MJO forecasts specifically on the RMM plots being referenced have been absolutely awful. The ECMWF EPS, in particular, has been bad - indiciating this time last week that the MJO would die out in Phase 6 and never approach Phase 8. There is much more going on that will help drive and guide convection in the tropical pacific. Yea he pretty much confirmed what we were saying

We don't want too much consolidated or the whole thing could cut west.

I wasn't really upset just it was soooo close to an epic run and flirted with several events and managed to just mostly tease. It will be different in 6 hours anyways.

The 12z gfs op is the biggest trease ever. So much smoke. So little fire.

Our problem isnt the transfer its that the initial system is washing out long before it gets here and the coastal is weak and blocked from gaining latitude and with no upper level support due to a compressing de amplifying flow. Most of our best snowstorms take a track up into the TN valley then "jump" to the coast. If the whole system was amplifying and not shearing out it wouldn't be a problem. Even if there was no coastal at all the result would be the same...some light snow from the frontrunning WAA wave then nothing. But there HAS to be a jump with any storm that tracks west then is forced under a high...it isn't going to track right over the mountains and through the CAD. But those are actually our best storms, so long as the flow isnt hostile like this.

I am more of a franziskaner fan myself but if that is the best run sure. What I am about to say only pertains to the MD northern tier peeps but even on the CMC I don't like that NW to SE trajectory to the precip, really shows how the shred factory is winning out here. That bothers me wrt getting a north adjustment later. When we see that kind of trajectory, those are the storms that have tended NOT to adjust north at the end. Think...Feb 5 2010, the first wave from March 2013 (yea I know it was rain in DC but up here I was counting on a north bump to the heavy precip and it didnt happen), both March 2014 storms... when you see that kind of thing often we fail to see any improvement at the end because the system is weakening and in that case the confluence to the north wins the fight. With an amplifying system usually it's the opposite.

It was an absolutely awful run if we were holding out hope for more then a very low end event from the WAA. That system crashing into CA is a big problem...it undercuts the western ridge and links up with the elongating/compressing trough and helps to flatten it even more which pretty much kills any chance for the coastal to amplify.

Looking at pressure anomalies in the pacific the soi looks to average negative the next 5 days...then might be around neutral days 6-10 before tanking again after.

Not worried about 2013...totally different pattern.

I know he isn't talking about specifics but referencing 2013 which was an epic fail around here won't calm Ji and his debs down.

Nam goes with the fail scenario lol

A southern system moving west to east that transfers from the TN valley to the coast is not a miller b. I have seen that classified as an a/b hybrid since there is a fairly significant transfer and redevelopment involved but it's not the same category as a northern stream system diving in and then transferring energy to a developing coastal with little STJ involvement. The hybrid types are actually some of our biggest snowstorms while the true northern stream miller b's are mostly a disaster scenario for anyone southwest of the Philly area. I am not even sure I agree with some of the "hybrid" categorization. Yea there is a jump and redevelopment of the surface system but that is really just mostly a function of the southern wave taking enough of a northerly track initially that it ends up running into the Apps and enough resistance to force a jump. When the storm tracks along the gulf coast it can turn the corner unimpeded and you get some jump often...from southern GA to the SC/NC coast often...as it approaches the coastal baroclinic zone and leaps...but it's not as noticeable as the transfer from TN to the NC coast and without mountains there to interfere the redevelopment isn't as extreme. But its not the same interaction really as the pure miller b and often doesn't involve as complicated a phasing scenario. Also...it usually is only an issue when the system is weak. Yea when the initial TN valley system is falling apart and washing out it creates the illusion that we have the same problem as with a miller b where the coastal can form too late...but that is simply because the initial system was weakening and would have weakened and the precip would have been shredded by the mountains and done little for us even without the coastal development. If you get a healthy amplifying system up into TN that then jumps to the coast...that is the setup for some of our biggest snowstorms (assuming there is a cold high in place). We get the initial WAA thump, then with a healthy system transferring we will also get into the CCB of the developing coastal. Or sometimes, like the January 2004 system, the coastal will get crushed by the flow and miss...but we still got 5-8" around here from the initial wave to our west so no one cared much. The issue here is that the system is being compressed and washing out NOT the transfer and redevelopment.

I guess it could go in between if we get a light initial wave and the fringes of a weak coast and adds up to a 2-4" event...but yea it might even be equally or more likely it falls one way or the other in the boom bust category. If I had to guess I would lean boom here. This is a pretty healthy system coming at us from the Missisippi Valley and the flow, while compressed isn't the worst shred factory I have ever seen. The high isn't even that suppressive, in PD2 there was a 1040 high sitting over Montreal and that low took a similar track and was only about 1012 mb and that system got 1-2 feet of snow to Vermont. I know the upper level flow was a lot more relaxed in that setup over the northeast BUT my point is get that flow to back off just a little, get this storm to hold together just a bit better and more amplified and there is no reason this can't adjust north 50 miles. We don't need it to get snow to Vermont this time. But if a weak sauce system can get snow to Vermont with a 1040 high over Montreal there is no reason this can't get some snow into our area with a 1040 high in about the same location. I think there might be just enough space in the flow for a slightly more amplified solution here. And we have had enough bad luck lately its just time for something to work in our favor. I just wish my "fail scenarios" didn't come true as often as they do!

There are a lot more moving parts to this now then with the west to east WAA wave scenario we were looking at 48 hours ago. Others seem to be catching on to my "fail scenario" where the initial WAA either rides to our north or gets shredded by the confluence and is weak sauce and then what's left of a weak strung out mess transfers to the coast but develops too late to help and we get stuck in between. We have seen that play out before. It's the threat of a total fail here. Not saying that is where we are heading but its on the table with this setup vs the more stable WAA look we had before. Another concern I have with this situation as modeled now is regarding ratios. People are assuming high ratios but to get good ratios we want to get into some decent lift. If we get .25 qpf over 24 hours from periods of very light precip that is most likely not going to have high ratios. I know some seem enamored with this long drawn out event but frankly I would rather get .25 qpf in a few hours then .25 qpf over 2 days. First of all with precip that light, it wouldn't take much adjustment for that to be shredded by the confluence and then you go from .08 qpf in a 6 hour period that you were assuming would add up to an inch of snow to flurries. You weaken the WAA band ahead of the stj system some and that becomes a nuisance snow event and then you adjust the northern fringe of the coastal south 20 miles and we miss that...and there you have the disaster scenario. People are looking at the expance of qpf and thinking...were safe, when not so much. Putting the deb away, there is also an equal chance this all goes the other way. Amp up the system just a tad, and that WAA banding could be a nice primer and then get that coastal to adjust north just another 30-40 miles and we end up with a 4-8" event region wide. So I am not saying this is going to unravel just I can see how it could and some seem to be convincing themselves we are safe for at least an advisory event based on the expanse of light qpf surrounding our area.

Have fun man... enjoy the break from life. I didn't mean to imply it was "fixable" just that it was a problem that wasn't getting much attention. In the end it might be a bigger problem and probably not a fixable one. But lets wait and see. I can definitely say the longwave pattern is OK but that compression is less then idea...the question is does the system have enough amplitude and "just enough" space to sneak in there and get it done. I can't possibly answer that. It's close just looking at the progression. I think if the system gets amplified enough in the Miss Valley and can survive somewhat intact through the compression effect to make the jump to the coast where it can then utilize the surface baroclinic boundary to reorganize it could have just enough room to get it done. If it ejects as an elongated sheared out POS we are probably looking at a very low end event.

I think a piece of this puzzle that isn't being talked about enough is the upstream issues also. The pattern is changing but has not transitioned fully yet and the fast pac jet is still pressing into the west coast and pushing that ridge east. As that happens its compressing the trough and forcing it to elongate and flatten between the ridge from the west and the NS blocking it to the northeast. That might be causing just as much of the problem as the NS over New England. Get that to back off and allow the trough to dig more and amplify and it might rise the heights enough to offset that NS problem for us. But the trough is de amplifying and so the NS is going to win that muscle match.