psuhoffman

@C.A.P.E. @Bob Chill Euro ens still looks good to me heading towards December. This look probably won’t get it done in late November but I would take it during peak Climo. And still no signs of the flip up top that the seasonal guidance expects.

A true NAO block is very rare. When it happens we have a high score rate. But the general tendency of ridging in the AO and NAO regions lately I would gladly buy during winter and take my chances.

@C.A.P.E. PS. The climo models weren’t the basis of my forecast last year either. I only bought them because they matched my analogs and expectations. When I saw in mid January things weren’t going as expected I had my mini melt down. Good or bad the long range seasonal guidance has such awful skill it’s not worth much.

The seasonal and monthly guidance has all continued to busy badly even at 1 month leads. The ensembles have been doing better lately our to day 14 or so. After that guidance continues to go off on a tangent. The climo models busted on the current pattern from range. So I really don’t give them any thought and that has nothing to do with the fact I don’t like what they show. I don’t ignite things I dont like. I do ignore things I don’t think have any validity.

For December I would settle for a "workable" pattern given what we typically deal with lately.

If we start December like this I am happy

@Bob Chill 1961-2 was one of the greatest "forum divider" winters in history. DC had a mediocre winter with only 15" at DCA, but BWI recorded 35" and Winchester and my area had over 50". That is unusual. There was a storm on xmas eve that dropped a general 4-8" snowfall to the NW of DC but was mostly rain in the city. There were a few moderate 3-4" storms in February that were similar and then a big storm early March that was mostly rain in DC but a HUGE snowfall to the NW of the city. It must have been fairly cold because the local coop up here recorded 40 days of snowcover that year which is high even for up here. It was also an above normal snowfall winter at most locations north of DC. Seems DC was just on the SE fringe of where the boundary set up that winter for the handful of significant snowstorms. But no 2 years are exactly the same...so of course if that were to play out again...and the boundary were 50 miles south we all win. If its 50 miles north...we all lose. Or we get a repeat and the DC area tries to kick the northern 1/3 of the region out of the sub-forum.

About avg in most places but it all came from a storm in November and then a weird late February rain to snow storm that was all gone a day later. In between it was a barren wasteland for snow. I doubt many would enjoy a repeat of that. Even I would come away somewhat disappointed by that despite “decent” numbers on paper.

What if there is no tomorrow? There wasn’t one today!

I'll give you a winter prediction: It's gonna be cold, it's gonna be dark and it's gonna last you for the rest of your life.

Fringed

Run flee scurry

Back to much better dendrites now. Warm layer must have mixed out.

Got a link? Thanks

18z euro lol

Still all snow but it’s not going to pile up much at this consistency. Really icy. Very low ratio.

There was a dry slot moving through. Hopefully better rates mix out the column again.

31/30 still all snow but it’s very very icy. There is definitely a warm layer. Hopefully it mixes out because this is super low ratio stuff right now.

What are you talking about? My post was 100% spot on. You knew you weren’t getting 7”. You said before the storm started that was a ridiculous forecast. But you are still going to complain when you dont get the 7” you “knew” you weren’t going to get. You are too predictable.

Seriously? Ugh. Your like just south of me. I guess I should have been more concerned with mixing. I was rooting for more amped the last 48 hours. Mixing never even entered my mind with a track southeast of Norfolk. That’s usually gold here.

Ouch. I don’t think anything had you mixing. Even the NAM.

Concerned we’re seeing some places pretty far NW flipping to rain quite a bit ahead of schedule.

It might get it right next run

Should I be concerned both NAMs flip to rain even up here? I honestly have had 0 worry of rain up until now.

So temp was up to 37 earlier with 28dp. Temp crashed to 33 but dp actually dropped to 27. Precip must have mixed down some of that “dryer” air that was above the surface.