psuhoffman

Becomes...lol

Let’s see how it screws this up.

@Isotherm can’t an Aleutian ridge RNA pattern be overcome easier in March? Assuming the NAO cooperated a little, which I have doubts of. Btw quick question wrt to last year. I know overall all the factors that lead to a less canonical nino response but there were times last February when the epo was very negative with a not hostile AO/NAO either (not the epic blocking sine expected but not bad either) and yet the trough continued to dump into the west and we had a huge eastern ridge. In some other years with a similar look we got a broad full conus positively tilted trough where could come translate east. What was the difference? This look never struck me as that bad yet in most ways yet we had a monster eastern ridge. I thought with that look in the HL from the epo to the NAO we would at least suppress the SE ridge some.

That’s ice down there. This is the actual clown map

There is a chance that it’s mathematically possible that it could happen.

So you’re saying they explode like Marvel Universe???

It’s really only 12” and a ton of ice. Way more realistic.

Ok so if we actually get this ridiculous epo block and the AO flips to neutral like this... then yea that storm is totally realistic. But count me skeptical that flip up top is real. But there is always a chance. And if so it better freaking snow because it leads to this...

I bet kuchera is better

It wasn’t nearly as hostile as this year but it wasn’t ideal.

I’m sure a 36 hour snowstorm from a string of progressive waves with no blocking will play out exactly like that from day 13! I’m getting provisions ready! Btw we should do this bizarro reverso thing more often. Being you is fun.

Wasn’t a fluke. The forecasts that relied on sst heavily had optimism. So did the sst based guidance. In November and early Dec before the jet strengthens those factors could dominate. We had the epo ridge we expected with the north pac sst. But the seasonal guidance was correctly picking up on an unfavorable walker cell structure to disrupt the pv and a raging +AO and they were right. As soon as the PV went crazy late Dec it was game over. The reason we could have a chance again in March is the same reason we did I’m early season. As the jet weakens again maybe the PV grip releases. I’m skeptical but maybe.

Good side of what? A few sleet pellets?

I am starting to turn more of my attention to looking at west to plan my ski trip. I settled on Aspen for a long weekend but have to decide about a week out (before flights book up and get pricey) when I think the snow looks good. I’m quickly becoming more interested in that then our snow prospects.

You didn't really cancel winter. You were excited somewhat at some of these long range looks I was hopeful...but always skeptical. I want it to snow. And I’m also mindful of not flooding the thread with doom and gloom. I made those very detailed posts with data and statistics to support them and that was my peace. Im not going to hammer it home every 12 hours. But I put a lot of research into those posts I made a month ago now. I didn’t just wake up feeling Scroogey and throw that out for giggles. And all the history said this pattern just flat out sucks and most of the time when we entered a January with strong central pacific ridging and a strongly positive EPO/AO/NAO it was lights out on hopes of a good winter. And the only exceptions (and there weren’t many) were years where the NAO flipped strongly negative but that happened by late January in every case. So that ship has sailed. But flukes happen. Im not saying it won’t snow at all. I’m never as confident it will snow in a good look or sure it won’t in a bad. Too much weird stuff has happened in the past to ever rule it out. So I’m hopeful. I’m rooting for the fluke. But the history of such situations were in now says our best chance of that fluke (if it happens at all) is in very late February or March. ETA: on the hope springs eternal side, I think 1948 was an example of a similar year to this where our area lucked into a pretty good (3-6”) snowstorm in February from what was a pretty meh pattern surrounded by a god awful pattern. It was one of tye ugliest looking h5 patterns of all the snowstorms I examined for the snow climo study.

Thanks Pot

Well it's not a shutout look but we will prob get shutout You trying to convince me? I was the one who “cancelled” winter a month ago remember? That look opens the door to possibilities but we would need help. It could work with a string of waves or timing. Anything spaced that ams will cut.

Ugh they posted out of order. But who cares they are all the same

Sorry what was the last run? Ridge in east? Weeks 3/4/5/6 32 day temps starting day 14

They were pretty much a carbon copy of the last run. They continue what that day 15 look is into March.

At least the look at the end of the eps would get cold air near to us. That’s about all I can say positive. The issues continue. No sign of a AO or NAO flip and pac ridge continues to be centered southwest of where we need it.

It's 10 days away... stop worrying about exactly where the rain/snow line is. The GFS has that same storm suppressed south of us. You do realize that the areal coverage of significant snow in a synoptic system is relatively narrow on the larger scale and WAY within the margin or error with a day 10 run. In other words...to be close enough to have a chance to get the storm...we have to be close enough to the rain snow line that rain is a risk from that range. The GFS suppresses the whole thing south of us. The Euro would likely end up mostly rain. But both are within the envelope of a normal error at that range. What is more useful is analyzing the type of pattern. There is no blocking. So an over amped solution like the euro would risk a cut. But there will be more cold around next week than this week. And the trough looks to dig pretty far east so something in between the euro and the gfs would work...getting a phase slightly further east than the euro and we get a snowstorm. There is no way in hell the euro is going to stick the landing wrt the exact location of the low track from this range...so worrying about that is a total waste of time.

This run the GFS consolidates too much of the energy along the front into the lead wave...and that positions the trough too N/S vs E/W and makes it really hard for the follow up wave to develop...the timing also sucks as the next NS wave that COULD phase and develop a storm is too far behind. The potential is there it just misses the moving parts coming together right. Then we get the waves but they all manage to go just north of us...which is the risk in that pattern.

well... technically either would be better...if it were to speed up it could phase with the initial STJ wave, if it slows down it could create enough space behind the STJ wave for a secondary development. It's about wave separation and right now the timing is no good...but right now its trending closer to the "slow down" option so that becomes our better bet.