psuhoffman

I suppose this is worth keeping an eye on...even if it is likely just teasing us.

12z EPS looks better wrt SLP, H5, qpf, but the snowfall is pretty much identical...seems to be because some of the really amped solutions are rain.

hmmm at first glance the EPS actually seems to have improved

One thing to keep an eye on...all guidance is hinting at an inverted trough feature associated with this system. Those are incredibly difficult for guidance to resolve at range...and those can sometimes produce some fluky results, especially in spring. The palm sunday blizzard being the ultimate example. It's one thing that could lead to a surprise somewhere and worth at least watching for.

The storm you are talking about never looked good for us...it was obvious it was going to stay to our south from 5 days out.

That phenomenon isnt just the gods toying with us though imo....there are always going to be adjustments from long range and trends one way and another...but when we start off so far from good...its likely when there are good trends they won't get there for us...they will simply make the miss look closer for a time before slipping away again.

You knew this was how it was going to go...trend better for 3 days until we just needed one more bump in our favor to be looking good...and then it would start to slide the wrong way.

Lol. I doubt anyone is waiting with baited breath for each run. But even in this crap year it’s still possible to fluke into some kind of frozen event in the next 4 weeks. It’s not likely and even if it happens it’s likely a minor event but for some it’s still worth a quick glance once in a while.

You could make it harder to attack you if you didn’t post absurd nonsense. You recently criticized us for not using analogs when the long range and seasonal thread is filled with analog discussions. I made a post months ago showing the analogs to this year and how awful they were. And many others said similar. Just because you didn’t read it...which is fine but then to criticize a thread you obviously don’t bother to actually read makes you look bad. You make rants about NWP (like it hadn’t improved in the last 20 years) that are easily disproven as false. You make up crazy conspiracy theories that insult the integrity of some of our best professionals in here who would have to be part of that conspiracy, ignoring the insult to logic that is your theory. Then you start this thread acting like there was and is no way to know what went wrong when we have been discussing that for weeks now and this exact type season has happened before and we do and have known “what went wrong”. Sorry but you make yourself an easy target.

Gfs has my big rainstorm from a storm that would have been snow a week earlier. Lol

@C.A.P.E. Tenman and this thread is absurd Weve known for months this winter was a turd numerous posters said without a lot of luck how bad this season was going to suck he complains we don’t use analogs obviously he didn’t read the long range blogs a central pac ridge +AO is crap once that set in we knew it was a wrap but he is still trying to figure what went wrong Long after the rest of us moved on but I’m sure he won’t listen to me And blame it on a government conspiracy.

There was a man in Delaware who loved snow I told him dude you got to go Somewhere up north I would find henceforth For the sake of your sanity oh and lay off the Hannity The population density might be crappier but you will be much happier In a place where the nao isnt needed to get snow so for the love of god GO

I doubt we get anything BUT your looking at the wrong thing. The initial SS wave is going to slide out south. Even if it did come up it’s not cold enough without the NS anyways. It’s the NS system diving in a day later that “could” phase and spark redevelopment along the coast. That’s the thing to watch. It’s very low probability but it’s a better chance than that SS wave.

But you are ignoring climate change. If you look at the trends it is normal now. Go back and look at the patterns the last 100 years. The good years aren’t changing wrt frequency or totals but the bad years are getting worse. 50 years ago a bad year was 10”. Now most bad years struggle to get to 5 or 7” and the frequency of below 5” winters is going up. Since 2000 (not including this year yet) we have had 13 non nino years. In those years 12/13 were below avg and the median snowfall is 7.5”. Furthermore 5 were below 5”. The new normal for non nino years is for most to be pretty awful. Because that is a new phenomenon that is getting worse everytime we get a bad run (which are common even in the old climate to get 3-5 year bad periods only now the bad years are worse) we will likely challenge the “worst period ever” thing you are clinging too. But is it “not normal” when it’s been happening and trending this way for 20+ years now?

This is gonna hurt

You’re here too

My educated guess was purely probabilities based. Since 2000 we’ve had 7 nino years. 5/7 ninos were above avg (71%) with a mean of 25.1” and median of 18.3”. But currently the odds do not favor a nino next year. In the 13 non ninos since 2000 1/13 (8%) were above avg with a mean of 9” and a median of 7.5”. So currently if we get anything other than a nino odds say there is a 92% chance of below avg snowfall and 7.5” is the most likely statistical outcome. So I said 5-10”. It’s a WAG purely based on statistical probability. Sorry if I didn’t incorporate enough CFS MJO for you.

@Mersky I much prefer and am more comfortable analyzing synoptic setups within day 10 but we haven’t had much opportunity for that lately.

Yes the WAG I made in November was awful. By New Years I knew we were screwed for the season. I seem to remember you calling me stupid for cancelling winter around New Years but now you’re going to criticize me for not canceling it sooner? SMH.

The late week setup screams painfully close miss to me which would be the perfect way to end this season.

Yea that would be almost as bad as using the CFS to predict an mjo phase 8.

It has always been common for DC to go through multiple year runs of sucky winters. But the trend for 50 years has been for those suck years to be even worse. Unfortunately it’s bevoming quite normal for DC to go long stretches with very little snowfall. The good years are becoming better too and big storms bigger...but I think most snow lovers would prefer a more even distribution and not as long a wait between good times. But that is our current climo.

If I had to guess right now based on historical probabilities and recent trends in long term global patterns, next year is likely to suck also but not as bad as this. A 5-10” winter around DC would be my best guess right now. There is a lot of time for that to change. Maybe the warmer waters in the IO and western PAC driving the unfavorable mjo shifts. Maybe enso changes trajectory. Maybe the long term AO state flips. But that’s a lot of maybe. Better to just expect it to suck and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t.

I can think of something else that describes

I must look into this analog thing. Never heard of it. Sounds like voodoo black magic to me.