psuhoffman

The problem is we probably care way more then whoever made the decision. I was lucky. Didn’t learn until I was 18 and everyone said how hard it would be and it took me about 3 runs to just figure it out. But I think it helped that I was in shape (then) from playing soccer at PSU plus I had played street hockey on roller blades growing up in NJ. A lot of the balance is somewhat similar. Just took a few runs to figure out the details. Now golf....I feel like someone invented that sport as a bad joke.

Yes this. Wes did an amazing correlation chart and DC snow correlates to the AO more then any other single factor. Adding to this...if you want a HECS then you need a -NAO. Only one of our region wide 18”+ storms in the last 50 years didn’t have a killer block and that one PD2 featured a perfectly timed Arctic high. We got kinda lucky. But that still changed to a LOT of sleet...so had timing been any less perfect...you get it. But oddly the really big ones that feature a great block also usually feature what under a non blocking regime would be a bad pacific. I talked about this some in the snow climo thread. Our HECS look is a weird combo that doesn’t work under normal circumstances. That kind of block would often suppress an event...but a trough near AK that amplified the ridge/trough downstream or a trough crashing the west that tries to ridge in the east actually helps get something to force its way up into what is likely locked in cold and a high pressure due to the confluence. It’s a weird combo that leads to those crazy anomaly storms. But if we just want snow...a good old fashioned warning event snowstorm, a -AO and a PNA or EPO ridge are the way to go.

A somewhat -NAO with a VERY -AO is just fine.

You probably aren’t balancing your weight properly or transferring weight between skis on turns. Without proper weight distribution the mechanics become difficult. Your weight should be centered on the balls of your feet when aimed downhill. Most beginners lean back as a defensive reflex and end up riding the tails and that’s bad because most of your control comes from the front of the ski. As you turn always distribute your weight to the downhill ski. When I’m teaching people I often lift one ski up and ski entirely on one ski at a time to make the point. Once you master the weight distribution the rest comes easier. To stop you execute a turn only sharper. But right as you would begin to turn uphill instead you lean into the slope and dig your edge into the snow. The first few times you will likely spin out a bit. That’s ok. At some point the “feel” just clicks and you’re good to go.

Can’t argue. I’m sure I measured 6.9” exactly right before it flipped to sleet. Then I measured just over 1” of mostly sleet with some snow during the mix period. So we were at 8 going into the last band of snow at 10pm. But after that I have no idea. Way to windy to get a measurement. But I doubt it was less than 2” so 10 is a good solid conservative #. I’ll go with that. 10” snowfall. My depth is 8” in most places. The bottom 6” of that is a solid glacier.

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It is very encouraging that all 3 major ensembles temporarily spike the AO as two TPV lobes merge but all 3 immediately give it the boot and tank the AO again within a couple days. The best news is we are well into the point where the last few years there was ample evidence the look up top was going to be trouble. Especially last year when huge warning flags were there. This year we have the opposite with every sign pointing to a favorable base state of the NAM.

My depth is a little over 8” because the initial 7” of powder compacted down to 5” of cement after the ice. I measured an inch of sleet and snow mix during the mess period. After that it was impossible to get an accurate measure but 2.5” seems about right. It snowed for several hours. It all blew into drifts up here. Your total seems right to me. This was a tough one to get an accurate total. The post I responded to 3 days ago and that I am referencing now was specifically about you implying guidance wasn’t showing enough moisture for 20” totals. At that time most guidance was putting out 2”+ QPF across our area in the deform zone. That zone shifted north. The argument you were making was not that the deform was going to shift north due to a future model trend. You were specifically questioning whether the qpf on guidance AT THAT TIME supported big totals. They obviously did because that zone and the 2” qpf area shifted to northern PA and that area got 30”+. I doubt we get the ratios here they got even if it had not trended north but 20” in our area certainly wasn’t crazy had the storm not trended north.

Over the years that Miller’s report a couple miles east of me (they are about 200 feet lower) aligns with my snow depth at the end of storms better then snowfall. Sometimes the two are the same but sometimes when snow came in different parts with lots of mix and compacting they can be a bit off and their total almost always matches my depth.

The storm trended north. They got the part that was supposed to be over our area 3 days ago when you made that point. The problem limiting snow wasn’t moisture it was track and lack of closing off of the mid level low. It had plenty of juice.

@PhineasC not juiced enough...

Binghamton NY is getting destroyed right now. Going to be some CRAZY totals in that area.

What's your total up there?

Damn thanks for the heads up...just went out and its really coming down...huge flakes. My flood lights are out so I can't really tell without opening the garage and turning on the light over there. The flood light wasn't really in a great spot anyways...I need to figure something out.

That was the pinnacle of my snow weenie life. We already had 25" OTG going into that one and ended up with close to 30" in that storm. It had everything...the first part was a crazy thump of 12" heavy wet snow in 4 hours then part 2 was hours and hours of true blizzard conditions...I remember walking around town..drifts up to roofs just marveling at a sight you never see outside alpine resorts usually. I mean I've experienced that when I was in blizzards at Steamboat Springs, Revelstoke, and Jackson Hole...but never that combo of snow depth and blizzard conditions where I live. Probably never will again.

Let's break 10!!!

We are LOOOOOOONG overdue for a -AO winter

I can't wait to do some hiking (and more skiing) up there when my son and daughter get a little older.

I can't get an accurate measurement on the new stuff...wind is howling up on my ridge...blowing everything around. I would guess around 9" total so far. @HighStakes I am going to go with your measurement for the post sleet part of this storm...the wind up here is just too ferocious to get any kind of accurate measure. You might be more sheltered down there to get a better idea. Also...if we can get that band forming now to our SW to pivot through here in the next 2 hours we might break 10". Definitely a good way to start the year.

We are seeing that banding now...how much it fills and slows is the real issue...next couple hours at least...better runs like 18z euro keep it going until 3am or so...

you need to get under a heavy band to mix out the warm layer that blased north at the mid levels

I measured another inch of mostly sleet with some freezing rain and snow mix over the last 4 hours...on top of the 7" of snow I measured that fell between 11am and 5PM. So 8" storm total as of now but my depth is still 7" due to compacting.

As the system finally closes off its mid and upper level circulation we will see this current band continue to pivot, but it will also backbuild and fill a little...how fast that happens will determine our fate. I made my stance...I think we get a decent snowfall tonight...but we will see.

IF....dangerous word...the euro idea is correct another band develops behind the current back edge as the upper level support closes off and catches up to the surface low in the next few hours. I think that band will develop...its on ALL guidance now...but some develops it up over PA and some over MD. We will see soon.

Exactly...ERS caught this early on and no one wanted to hear it but he was 100% right. December coastal with super warm SST and no closed mid level circulation is a big problem...nothing to cut off the easterly fetch to the north of the low. This could have worked in 2 ways...true arctic airmass, phased system. In the end we got the perfect track...the blocking did its dirty work...but other parts didn't come together. December is a HARD month to get a BIG snow here. We are almost better off with progressive wave type systems that cant scorch the mid levels with screaming easterlies. December is a good month to waste a good pattern unfortunately. But give me this look again...anytime between xmas and March 10...and I will take my chances.