That was always BS. We are still suffering from that fall pattern though. Left us void of a domestic cold air source. Sometimes in that situation blocking takes a while to pay off. Seriously go back end look at the January 2016 thread. We had good blocking for a while before that storm and I remember this exact same conversation. My guess is if the PV gets obliterated and we get a -AO for a significant portion of winter we will do ok. Maybe better then ok. Probably not good enough to make you happy though.