psuhoffman

Devils advocate…didn’t those of us that have played this game long enough kinda know deep down in our gut that we were playing with fire seeing those marginal temps and that our area being on the southern edge of the consensus snow at 150 hours was not ideal? Come on admit it…almost every major snow event from 100-150 were either in the bullseye or the northern edge of the snow. That’s why the “fringed” joke with me. We want me to be fringed at 120 hours? If I’m worried about mixing at day 6 we’re not in a great spot! I hinted at that but I didn’t want to be the Deb so I mostly stayed quiet. Things can trend to snow from day 5. And it’s possible we still get a decent event if this new evolution trends our way. But the truth is even if guidance didn’t show a big hit day 6 we would probably see the signs it could trend that way and we wouldn’t be caught surprised. Think back to Dec 2009. It wasn’t on guidance like that from 7 days but we saw the potential and were tracking it and knew it has a good chance to trend into that! We knew inside this wasn’t a great look at day 6 to get a big snow and we probably would identify a threat that wasn’t looking big verbatim but had the potential to trend better also! We’ve become very pretty good at this game in this sub I think.

Since I know how some react to any non rainbow and unicorns analytical statement I make let me be clear I am very optimistic we will be fine. This is just speculative. The old gefs looks didn’t bother me too much. Yea I didn’t love anything looking that way but I was 90% sure it was out to lunch. This though…is slightly and I mean only slightly troubling. Look at the pac pattern the last week of Jan. 1 should produce a trough at 2! But it’s not. That’s been consistent on the euro for a while. We get the pacific we want but… I think that’s wrong too. And yea I know by Feb 7 it starts showing a trough. But it keeps pushing that back. Not the pacific but the downstream effects. Not much blue anywhere on that map though outside the Nino n pac low.

Hence my question. It’s pertinent because 1966 was one of my top 3 analogs and if I had to re rank now based on how the season has progressed it would be number 1. So this might be where we’re heading. I just want to get him on the record in a definitive way. I feel like he hints but never comes out and says it. And Im not saying he would be wrong. We might find out. I’ve said this year is a good test case.

@Stormchaserchuck1…this produced 3 snow events and one of our epic Nino snow runs. -pna. I think this is where we’re headed. Yes or no, are you saying this wouldn’t work anymore?

1z updated on wxbell. Another slow decline unfortunately. Not sure what caused it. 18z data was slightly better I thought then 12z. But it is what it is. Still would be a decent way to get on the board for many.

I drove from N. VA to PSU in a few snowstorms. Made the trip during the tail end of the PD2 storm! They generally take care of the roads. By Sunday should be ok. If it’s iffy at all take 70 to 99 instead of 15 to 322. Now that 99 is finished that might be faster now anyways. Back in my day the quicker route was 322 from Harrisburg but that can get dicier in snow.

A lot of gfs like solutions in there

Forgive me but given the last few years and your MO at first glance I thought it said I think 18z euro would have been a torch As of right now I don’t think anything is “trending” per se. guidance picked up on a major shift due to that western SW. euro at 6z. Gfs at 12z. Oddly the ggem had this first then reverted to what other guidance had yesterday. But other than catching on to the trend towards stronger trailing SW that dampens our SW they aren’t trending just settling into the new paradigm. on a side note the ggem does this a lot. Will have an idea then just when everything else trends towards it…it goes off on a tangent. I know it scores better than tie gfs but anecdotally it seems less reliable.

Gettysburg is a perfect town to be in the snow! Do you know is that little cider micro brew still there on the main square? Lots of places like that didn’t survive Covid unfortunately.

There is a path to a decent snow still, especially NW. We don’t have much experience with the new upgraded GFS. It’s supposed to be better with the cold bias. We will see. The SW continued to trend weaker. 18z gfs found the seeet spot that @WxUSAF alluded to where the NS SW washes out completely such that the primary gets killed completely and all the focus is on the coastal wave. This increased qpf this run because we were stuck in between the dynamics from the weak primary and secondary on the 12z runs. There was a qpf max to either side of us. This focused all the lift over us. The danger being if the system continues to weaken that will degrade from here. But maybe there is a limit to that since there is almost no NS component anymore on the 18z. Not sure how much weaker it can get, famous last words.

Yea that's the part I don't know we're getting kinda close to see those kinds of adjustments. My area up here can do pretty well with my option 1. 18z GFS is kinda ridiculous with that banding though, I'd bed anything its overdone, but I could see my area get a 6" snow from that scenario but just not sure that can work for more than a couple inches in the cities given the marginal temps. The danger in rooting for option 2 is if the whole thing gets stuck in between we risk nothing at all for the entire area. That would be how the whole thing falls apart. Maybe best to just cut our losses and root for the STJ to go it alone like the 18z GFS shows. Again, the GFS snow output with that is crazy but I could see a 3-6" snow NW of the cities from that scenario.

So far at 18z the ICON moved a little towards my option 2 but was stuck in between. The GFS went towards option 1.

@Terpeast @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx Thoughts on this... I've been thinking about the "new" curveball here... making the assumption that the trailing SW that has popped up and thrown a wrench in all this is real, its newer data and why would guidance just make that up, how can we still get this to work. Very minor adjustments in that trailing wave I don't think will do much and we are too close to get HUGE ones. The trailing wave is just simply the dominant one and the SW that was associated with our storm is washing out in response to the spacing and the new SW amplifying right behind it. So... I see 2 possible scenarios to get snow into DC/Baltimore. 1) Things trend a little colder ahead of this and the STJ wave continues to speed up and holds together just enough to produce a quick WAA thump before dry slot or rain. This is likely low end potential but I could see the cities getting a 1-3" snow if everything broke right on this scenario. 2) If we want a shot at something bigger the only way I can really see us trending back where we want is if the trend already underway continues and that trailing SW becomes even more dominant, the lead wave that we thought was THE storm continues to die out and eventually becomes just a frontrunner wave that does not take all the moisture off with it, and we get a secondary development centered on the dominant trailing SW. I was looking at the spacing and its not impossible. Unlikely yes but not impossible IMO. That trailing SW actually takes a pretty good track, like the original now washing out NS SW was supposed to. I think our best chance here would be if the trends were to continue and the trailing wave ends up being the storm. Thoughts?

I'm on this train

All the energy is actually shifting to that trailing wave. That could work if the lead stj wave didn’t run off with all the moisture.

It held from 6z it’s worse than 0z. Euro caught into this change at 6z. Gfs at 12z. Ggem is off on a tangent.

EPS isn’t as bad as I expected

We are not safe up here. This could easily become an interior and New England event. We don’t have nearly the wiggle room we need. I was hopeful when things were trending colder 24 hours ago but we needed that trend to continue. Yes it could reverse but the trend towards a less amped system is concerning. But it very well could continue. Look at the changes in just the last 24 hours. We could easily be mostly rain here too by the time it gets here. Not saying we will but I don’t feel safe in the least. Seen this setup way too many times. And so has everyone else. That’s why there are so many posts with declarative statements no one really means. To try to convince ourselves this time will be different lol. Eventually one will be different. But I never feel confident at this range no matter what unless everything is truly perfect. This setup isn’t.

It's just because we're in a nina relax...oh wait

unfortunately the GEFS followed the op. The track is fine, but the see saw went towards a stronger SW in the southwest and a weaker one associated with our system. The SLP track is identical to previous runs, but its weaker, less moisture, and warmer.

The system is weaker so its not being pulled in and phasing with the coastal. It's the same vort that was always there its just not as amplified

No it's actually weaker...the problem is the coastal is WAY weaker...so it doesn't develop as much northerly flow to the NW of the low to resist the WAA ahead of the trough axis. A weaker wave doesn't work here, regardless of the track it will end up warmer it seems. I can see how some think the primary is stronger, it looks that way because its in relation to the coastal which is a LOT weaker. That is the real difference. The primary is weaker also but because the whole wave is weaker it doesn't develop the closed circulation needed to cut off the WAA. We need a wound up system to offset the marginal thermals.

People are going to over analyze all the little details, the primary was actually weaker and in the same location this run. The GFS/Icon and 6z euro were simply weaker and warmer. That's it. I think those 2 things are related but I don't feel like over analyzing it.

Early on I thought the less amplified wave might help mitigate the thermals but we need the NS interaction. I was wrong.

This is the issue…weaker less dynamic system.