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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    A 3 day cold shot doesn’t impact the ski resorts nearly as much as not having crazy warm thaws or high elevation rain that wiped out their base and wrecks the conditions.
  2. psuhoffman
    Jackson Hole tracks summit, mid mtn and base snowfall. I’ve never seen such a difference between the 10,500 and 6200 snowfall reports. Several storms where they got 20+ at the top and rain at the bottom. Very unusual. Unfortunately probably going to become more common
  3. psuhoffman
    It moved the banding features around about one county and is about .05 dryer overall. These are noise changes at 60-72. If this was a bigger storm we wouldn’t even note that kind of shift but it matters when we’re trying to get hit by these two little meso bands because it’s mostly a weak POS wave. And a slight qpf change looks more significant when it’s less qpf to begin with. But those bands are going to shift around 20 miles every run until game time and change in intensity some. We wouldn’t expect a model to nail the exact location and qpf of a meso band within a larger storm at 60 hours. That still applies here even though the meso band is all there is.
  4. psuhoffman
    It’s happy hour
  5. psuhoffman
    Wrong thread. This is the fluffy clouds, water vapor, stray warms suck, western ski report, and whatever else is on Jis mind thread.
  6. psuhoffman
    The lower elevation mountains out west have been having a horrific year. Snow levels on many storms have been unprecedentedly high. 8-9k in some cases. Some resorts had to close multiple times all the way into January and I saw some smaller resort in Montana just gave up and cancelled the season after being open only 4 days when they got wiped out again by the last rainstorm.
  7. psuhoffman
    They just had a huge rainstorm all the way to the summit a week ago. Like 4” of rain. Wiped out the lower mountain completely and turned the top to a sheet of ice. And this after they got a super late start from a warm December. They’re having maybe the worse year ever there.
  8. psuhoffman
    There is just a bad pacific correlation. It’s not like the pacific been good when the nao is pos either. The pac has just been bad 90% of the time so of course it’s been bad during most -nao. The pac and Atlantic did both time up for a minute in January.
  9. psuhoffman
    @Stormchaserchuck1 is in heaven.
  10. psuhoffman
    Sometimes something can just be random. That’s gambling. And betting on warm given recent trends is smart. But they don’t have any super special insight we don’t. Except maybe if I had money riding on it I’d be a little more conservative and cautious about going cold or snowy. I had reservations. I knew the risks that the Nino wouldn’t offset the recent base state. Maybe if I had money riding on it I would have considered that even more.
  11. psuhoffman
    You gonna piss of the snow gods and they will revoke our special powers
  12. psuhoffman
  13. psuhoffman
    Get on that phone instead.
  14. psuhoffman
    This is the 3rd time a SSW happened when the tpv was already weak and then a blocking regime fell apart. Happened once in 2019 and twice this year. I’m curious about that.
  15. psuhoffman
    not with this type of system, the heaviest snow will be quite a bit north of the R/S line probably
  16. psuhoffman
    it looks like garbage through about March 20th, then shifts the trough east in time for us to get cold rain in April.
  17. psuhoffman
    There were a few who got it right and for the right reasons...said the nino would fail to overcome what has plagued us recently.
  18. psuhoffman
    the weeklies have finally complete pulled the rug First week of March 7 days ago and now
  19. psuhoffman
    Or it could have been even worse. I might be wrong, but I don't think the failure of that wave to be a cutter is what went wrong. First of all, there were runs back like a week ago on guidance before that wave became a cutter the first time before it trended south then north then south again lol, where it still initiated a block. And that wave did bomb out and become a monster 50/50 and does wave break a ridge into the NAO domain, but then it phases with the TPV and lifts up into the NAO space itself and cuts off what was going to be the developing block. I think those smaller scale wave features are more an effect not a cause. For months guidance got to the block through slightly different means, different wave breaks, then suddenly it went poof. I dont think one wave break is what went wrong.
  20. psuhoffman
    given recent history why would you EVER not be worried about being too warm?
  21. psuhoffman
    I wouldn't base anything on the 12k NAM at range. But we really want to be in that northern qpf max, the one up in PA on this run, not the southern one. It's always that northern max that ends up with the most snow in these NS boundary waves even if its less qpf.
  22. psuhoffman
    Fixed...now you can simply copy and paste this post and it applies to everything all the time
  23. psuhoffman
    they should do it like the ICON and release the panels in non chronological order
  24. psuhoffman
    It was a few years ago now, unfortunately the last couple years were difficult and I wasn't able to set something up, but I would really like to again this summer sometime. It was really fun last time we had a get together. Hope you can make it. I'll start a thread soon to coordinate setting something up.
  25. psuhoffman
    on the same run, now that will be some sheet It will miss us to the south, phase with the polar vortex, then fujiwara back around from the northeast and NE MD Crushed destroyed pulverized
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