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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    You just said what I said but in a different way
  2. psuhoffman
    2019 was a nino, 2020 was enso neutral,2023 was neutral, this year is a nino. Yes the atmosphere has been in a nina like base state for 8 years abut we have not actually been in a nina for 8 straight years. We have had 4 ninas in 8 years. That excuse is starting to wear thin with me.
  3. psuhoffman
    This part seems topical... and the truth is I just don't know, which is why I continue to analyze it and try to compile evidence one way or the other. I am pretty sure the data supports that we have warmed and it has decreased our snow climo compared to 50 or 20 years ago. But what I don't know with any conviction how much. I also believe we are in a shorter term (decadal maybe) bad cycle and we will likely have a better period at some point in the near (hopefully) future. But how soon? And how much better? Again I don't know, which is why I continue to analyze. But recent evidence is unfortunately hinting that maybe its worse than I thought. And this is where this relates to the discussion about RIGHT NOW and this winter. This year is exhibit A, Baltimore averages over 40" of snow in -QBO El Ninos' and it looks like we aren't going to get close to those numbers unfortunately. Maybe this year is just a fluke as @Bob Chillbelieves. That is entirely possible. I respect him tremendously and frankly learned a lot from him, he was doing this with expertise before I knew what I was doing! But I don't know. I am just a little more pessimistic about how much of it is a "fluke" that's all.
  4. psuhoffman
    my bad
  5. psuhoffman
    So we need to all use less fabric softener, WTF are you saying? Can you translate that please.
  6. psuhoffman
    I don't intend to be hostile, just being direct, but I can see how its interpreted that way. As for why repeat myself, because new evidence was offered. And in this case there was a well thought out and good point made by someone I respect a lot, but I felt there was a logical refutation to that point and it was worth making it to add to the discourse. Respectfully, you could say the same thing regarding repetitive posts everytime the ensembles show some -3 stdv block and we get excited and post about how it looks favorable for snow. Those are the same posts so why do we make them? Because it's a new example so its technically new analysis. But if your point is this topic has been proven and needs no further evidence or argumentation, I might even agree with that, but some on here definitely do not, and I admit I am argumentative, I am a former debate coach lol, so here we are. I will refrain from further response to this topic in this thread though since now we arent talking about the pattern we are talking about talking about the pattern which is off topic and I will reply there.
  7. psuhoffman
    No, I've said many times maybe we flip to a better long term cycle at some point. But were now going on 8 years of total worse snow period ever for our area, and its actually 13 years we've been in a very bad period, it was just interrupted briefly by 2014-2016. But on the whole DC has had an identical snow climo to NC since 2010. 13 years is a long freaking time. This horrible dreg period has now encompassed a huge portion of my adult life. So when I say the trends are troubling they are, regardless of if at some possible future date that I may or may not even be here for, they flip back to a snowier cycle...I am more concerned with the cycle I currently have to live through.
  8. psuhoffman
    That STT makes me want to vomit. I guess we could hold onto 1996 and the thought it has to happen again someday. Ya I know... but for those that aren't ready to toss next year that's all you can do, there is absolutely no objective evidence that would suggest anything other then a crap warm very low snowfall winter next year ATT.
  9. psuhoffman
    I didn't cancel winter. I still think we see more snow this year. If my post responding to what Bob said didn't belong in here than his post didn't either because both were about the exact same topic, only he took one angle and I took another less optimistic one. But both were about the exact same thing! IMO this is silly. Pointing out factual observations and trends and how they impact our weather is not depressing to me. The fact its not snowing more is depressing maybe, me analyzing why is just analysis. It doesn't change how much it's snowing. I can see how MAYBE, if you are trying to deny the obvious because the thought of less snow is depressing my posts could be unpleasant. I am throwing something in their face that they would rather not be true. But I am not going to avoid scientific analysis because the results might not be what some want. And may I offer a counter point. If just the thought of less snow bothers them so much...then ultimately not talking about it won't make them happy for long. They would be better off accepting it fully and if snow matters that much that thinking of less snow upsets them emotionally they probably should move somewhere that will get more snow. Snow is not going extinct in our lifetime, it's just getting less prevalent in this specific location because we were already pretty close to the southern extent of where it snowed regularly even during colder periods. We had less wiggle room for warming that places further north. Even where I live would probably make most in this forum happy 90% of winters if they simply kept the same expectations that they have for DC and Baltimore but lived here. I fail to see how the better solution is to live in denial and try to avoid any talk about less snow. That seems less healthy to me.
  10. psuhoffman
    It's odd that no one complains when I say how good the pattern looks over and over again when it does in fact look good. Analysis is analysis. When something is good I say it. When something is bad I say it. I don't blow smoke. I don't stick my head in the sand. And I call em like I see em. Don't like it, put me on ignore and don't read my posts. I won't be offended.
  11. psuhoffman
    @Bob Chill everything you said regarding this winter is 100% accurate. And in a vacuum I agree. The problem is when you zoom out and take the last 5 years as a whole, things start to become a little more alarming. It's like a coach who at the end of a disappointing game where one of his players fumbles the ball is saying how, its just one game and flukes happen and yada yada yada...and that is totally true and you would never bench a player for one fumble. But if it happens 5 games in a row... I ran the numbers out of morbid self loathing a couple weeks ago. Since 2010 DC has had the snow climo of central NC. Since 2016 DC has had the snow climo of central SC! The main reason for this is its just been too warm. Warm months are outnumbering cold ones 3-1. Perfect track waves are tending to end up rain more and more often. It's too warm is the common thread. Yes we can debate the different specific reason one week was too warm v another. Maybe one time the NAO was positive. Another time the pac was crap. Many times its been both! But sometimes the patterns been fine and it was still to warm lol. Again, we can zoom in and get stuck in the details and find legitimate specific reasons why one period or another didnt work and find ways a storm could have been snow if this that or the other had gone better. But zoom out and take everything holistically and I think the trends are more troubling and have a common theme.
  12. psuhoffman
    I chased the storm too, all the way from my bed to my yard.
  13. psuhoffman
    It's the wave after the PD3 wave. But different guidance differs on exactly when that is, based on how progressive they are. Also some runs have ejected two weaker waves instead of one stronger one in that timeframe. But sometime in the Feb 22-24 timeframe.
  14. psuhoffman
  15. psuhoffman
    This goes in my book. DC/Baltimore should have been able to squeeze some accumulating snow out of this on Feb 13th... Again, this one storm taken alone means absolutely nothing. There have always been disappointing outcomes through history. Yes I could find a few nice snow solutions that look like this but we could find plenty of times it was too warm also. But it's the fact these keep stacking up. It's becoming VERY rare that these marginal setups break snow instead of rain anymore for DC and Baltimore. We are only going to get so many perfect wave passes like this...when we start wasting 2-3 maybe even 4 of them on rain every winter...well.... that's how you end up where we are.
  16. psuhoffman
    Yea we both know what’s going on. The difference between here and 95 is getting more extreme also. Not in the total dreg years like 2020 and 2023 so much but marginal storms where we bet 6+ and the cities bet absolutely nothing seem to be increasing. 2021 was ridiculous in that regard. There was a lot of compaction today. My depth was never over 5.2 but I cleared the deck where I measure at 7am. Also temps were right around freezing and that’s even the 200 ft elevation difference between us can matter. That’s happening a lot more lately. But I’m just thankful we’re still on the snow side of the equation on these for now. I’m afraid that ship has sailed for many places already.
  17. psuhoffman
    They’re very proud of their snowman. No help from me.
  18. psuhoffman
    Just ended. 6” total. measured 2.5” on my pool deck around 7am and 3.5” just now. Current depth is 5.2”.
  19. psuhoffman
  20. psuhoffman
    Strongest signal it’s had yet.
  21. psuhoffman
    You can’t ignore the western N American part of the PNA equation though.
  22. psuhoffman
    Omg it was mdecoy
  23. psuhoffman
    Don’t tell me it was Mdecoy
  24. psuhoffman
    Except that’s the polar opposite ridge trough configuration as the plot I posted that you also called a -pna. You can’t just call every bad pattern here -pna. It might not have been good for us but that full latitude ridge in the west I posted is most definitely a +pna. The region you were focusing on is more the epo domain. There is some overlap and ideally we want a -epo +pna.
  25. psuhoffman
    We can disagree on the cause of that particular feature but agree on the impact. I do think the western pac has run interference with a typical Nino mjo response. It can be multiple things. Problem is all those things are pushing the needle the same direction and they’re all related to the same root cause.
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