psuhoffman

the nino actually became more modoki than expected...

But look at the loops and the last few winters were the same…what makes you so confident it goes strong into 8 and doesn’t just die and cycle into warm phases again which is what killed the last attempt at this same pattern evolution? I’m not sure it won’t. Just saying that chart doesn’t make me feel good in any way. Plus it’s late March by then. We can’t even get cold enough most of the time in January and February. Sorry to be a Deb. I want to be wrong.

No…early then late. But for the core of winter we had a favorable pna, but the wavelengths just broadened. The SER shifted to the center of the country and the warmth was so expansive it didn’t matter that technically we were under a mid to upper level trough. But it’s all the same problem. It doesn’t matter what the specific long wave pattern is if warm keeps winning in such a lopsided rout over N.A. at our latitude. ETA: let me clarify I’m not saying getting a favorable pdo won’t help. It will. It will snow more. This is a matter of degrees. But there have also been times during this PDO where the pacific for a time wasn’t that bad and the warmth was still winning across the CONUS. I’m not sure that is totally solved by the PDO. I’m pointing out that at our latitude regardless of the long wave pattern cold is having a hard time winning anywhere. Whether there is a ridge or “technically” a trough but one flooded in the lower levels with pac puke!

I feel like were on two different wavelengths in this discussion. All I care about is getting cold into the east so we can have a shot at snow. Yes, there is a residual effect of unfavorable pacific patterns, but this is part of the problem...that residual affect is lasting longer and longer...and meanwhile there is no lag affect at all when the pac goes to shit. Literally. A few times over the last few years I've also posted how we have a nice thermal profile in place FINALLY...after weeks of slowly getting it there...and then the pacific longwave pattern shifts and within 24 hours warm air blasts 1000 miles and a HUGE ASS ridge goes up...with no delay at all. Warm is winning in a rout. Its kicking our ass like warm is the 1985 Bears and cold is the 1985 Patriots. Think about late December and early January when it took over 2 weeks for cold to finally push east after the bad longwave configuration? The pattern actually started to become favorable from a pure longwave POV around Dec 25 but it took over 2 weeks after that for cold to start to press into the east. We wasted several waves in that time period. Yea, it eventually pushed east...and we got like a week of cold before the whole pattern collapsed...but it took weeks! We don't usually have that long! More typically the decent patterns don't even lock in long enough and before it ever gets cold the warm is taking over again! I am trying to hypothesize why the warmth has been resistant and slow to be pushed out of the east recently even once the pattern shifts to a favorable configuration upstream.

@brooklynwx99 this is a better example. Look at the pac. Totally opposite pattern there. But the same trough ridge configuration over the US! The wavelengths just adjust.

I know, but I've pointed out that at times the wavelengths just expand or shorten east of the central pacific so that the pattern over the CONUS remains virtually the same. At times when there is a trough just off the west coast the wavelenghts shorten dramatically and a trough still digs into the southwest, or worse...they broaden and we end up with a full continent ridge from coast to coast lol. But what rarely seems to happen, regardless of what the central pacific trough/ridge alignment is, is for us to get a nice western US ridge, eastern US trough configuration. I am just hypothesizing why that might be...and those 2 reasons I listed above off the top of my head would be the most likely I can see. I am totally open to other suggestions I am just spitballing here.

You know I agree with the trend...but even if our climo has become Richmond's permanently now...even they used to get a big year from time to time, just much more rare.

@Terpeast Referencing what I showed above...and the fact that has happened several times where opposite pacific longwave patterns lead to the same huge SER over the US...what are your thoughts that there is more going on here than just the PDO. I am just thinking out loud here...but is there any chance these 2 factors are also contributing... 1)systems are coming in off the pac more juiced up and amplify quicker which would tend to get them stuck in the inter-mountain west and amplify and cut off there not progress east.... 2) the extreme warmth in the Gulf, Caribbean, Atlantic is contributing to the SER and the combination of these 2 is leading to a tendency for a crazy SER regardless of the PDO or pacific longwave pattern west of there.... I am NOT saying the PDO hasn't been a problem...and isn't contributing to this...but do you think these other 2 factors, which unfortunately wont be solved by a simple PDO flip, are part of the problem also?

I've pointed this out before... This first example its obvious why we are warm... This pacific configuration is a train wreck, we should be warm with this crap pacific longwave setup But then look at this...its the complete opposite pacific longwave pattern, and we still have a massive full latitude eastern N American ridge I've shown this several times over the last few years...that at times it doesn't matter what the jet configuration is over the pacific it leads to the same pattern over the CONUS regardless. Am I 100% sure the PDO is totally to blame for this...ehh. I hope so.

This has been our reality for 9 years... Here is the thing about that...yes the PDO is killing us, putting a perpetual ridge over the east...but look out west at our latitude...even with a crazy -PNA most of the time, they aren't cold either. At our latitude the variance across the northern hemisphere the last 9 years has been crazy unprecedented torch to at best slightly above normal temps, which for us isn't even good enough since our lowest average high temp is still in the 40's. I've witnessed this first hand...yea they have been "colder" and yes at times when a crazy trough sets up they do get cold for a bit...but I've been out west several times in the last 8 years and lower elevations were really really suffering in terms of snowfall with very warm temps between storms and during any modest ridging episodes. Just a cautionary thing to keep in mind for when the PDO flips...it hasn't exactly been cold ANYWHERE at our latitude on the whole, no matter what the longwave pattern is. This doesn't mean you can't get cold for a period, there are anomalies within that longer term avg...just saying...in general its just been warm everywhere at our latitude.

I'm trying to behave today...

It does seem that way...but I just pulled up the mean h5 pattern from the last 5 winters and only once did we actually get a strong blocking regime that lead to a trough over us for early Spring. I think we joke about it happening more than it actually does. March 20-Apr 15 the last 5 winters 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019

FWIW guidance is still on pace for the longwave pattern to shift between March 10 to March 15. The problem is the whole continent is torched and so it would take another week after that before lower level thermals are even remotely cold enough in the east and by then were getting into the timeframe that boundary temps along 95 are really a problem. Places NW with elevation its still possible maybe March 20 on hey could sneak in something...I'm skeptical even there.

I think its made worse by perception bias...because winter is so much warmer than "normal" lately...I think there is just this expectation it will get warmer as we head into early spring...but it doesn't necessarily work that way since the water which is a big part of why its so warm in winter is cooling by then due to the lag effect in water temps. So often when we get a very warm Feb-mid March...late March and early April might not really end up much warmer and that "feels wrong".

That’s more plausible. Thanks for translating.

Visiting family

How does it rotate when it’s flat?

I’ll be in Florida lol

people are going to get up tomorrow and see 75 new posts and think there is a blizzard coming then read this...lol

I’m going to try this next time I get pulled over. “Officer, why are you using how fast I’m driving today, a rolling 10 day average would be better”. This is semantics. You’re measuring snow trends. I’m comparing specific years. Those are different things. You’re saying this method is better. Ok. That’s your opinion. But the years I picked aren’t arbitrary.

I disagree with your last point. I’d much rather have a bunch of solid winters than a few great ones surrounded by dreg almost snowless years. But that’s opinion. The years aren’t arbitrary. I picked the last 8 years. I compared it to other low snow 8 year periods. Then projected how likely we would avoid the least snowy 10 years. None of that is arbitrary. The numbers are exactly what I said.

Without being home to check I think that’s like a quarter inch more than the 10 years from 1948-1957.

1968-1977 BWI had 143.1”. Unless BWI gets more snow this year they will have 75.3” from 2017-2024. BWI would be 67.8” short of that 10 year period with 2 seasons to go.

What do you have as the worst 10 year period?