psuhoffman

Can’t get a better 50/50. That’s even southwest of 50/50. But it’s got to overcome just a brutal SE ridge. Even just a little less ridge and we would be good but man that trough ridge axis is awful.

Noooo that’s too much blocking. Lol

The guidance analogs for day 8-11 show how this could go either way. There are a few dates right before snowstorms. Some big ones even like March 62 and 76. But there are also years that lead to absolute crap torch marches. The difference is blocking. I looked at the h5 for the analog years. From day 10 if we don’t get NAO blocking that evolves into a torch pattern. If we do it evolves into a cold snowy March. Given the trend on the NAO all winter that’s not exactly a comforting fact. But it is what it is. Need the gefs to win this one.

But...here comes March 1993 lol

Seems the eps was evolving towards holding more back and cutting the main energy a day later. Before that it did show slightly more coastal but imo the main height falls and trough axis was still to our west. But by holding back it shears out the initial waa push more so that’s why the decrease in snow. It did that across all guidance overnight. But it was still a decent result not a disaster and one run isn’t a trend. I was discouraged but not distraught by the runs last night. I wanted to see another improvement like 12z and we took a half step back instead. But I’m not saying this is dead or anything.

Long range the battle continues. Eps and gefs look similar day 10 then diverge. Eps breaks down the NAO completely and lifts the trough into Canada. Gefs strengthens the blocking and so the trough is further south. No blink by either camp yet. Geps is in between fwiw.

Still time. It wasn’t a disaster run. But the ridging had trended flatter then reversed last night. We can overcome some ridging in this setup, look at PD2, but the ridging being shown now is kind of on the extreme of what we can work with. If the primary tracks up too far west the waa forcing will dampen and we lose the thump. Plus we would get a deluge after anyways. Need to get the primary into eastern TN and jump to the coast if we want the 6”+ results on the coastal plain imo

I wasn’t thrilled with the 0z runs. Not a disaster but they all took a step back from the previous runs. I was kind of hoping to see that primary trend east and jump to the secondary sooner. It trended the other way. On a personal note I would like to get ccb’d once this year. The only 2 amplified systems to track under us missed me to the south. Everything else was either weak systems or a nw track with some front end waa. Snow is snow but what I get excited for and am really in this for is tracking a low amplifying to our se and watching the Ccb develop and move over and tracking the banding with the deform. Been none of that this year. It’s all trying to get scraps from cutters. I just want one sub 1000 mb low that tracks from va beach to just off ocean city. Even if it’s only a 3-6” storm that would be more fun than these setups imo.

The snow maps are wrong. We figured that out months ago. So don’t look at them. Don’t use them. They have a faulty algorithm. But you should t use those things anyway. I’m freaking tired of people posting those maps and saying omg look how crazy the fv3 is. It’s not actually predicting that much snow. You can look at the actual run and figure it out. If the 850 temp is +3 it’s not snow just because some faulty map says so. People just need to stop being lazy and do the work of interpreting the actual run and not rely on a stupid snow map. That said the fv3 has had a bias to over amp storms and show big snows but it’s not nearly as bad as those screwed up maps that count everything that falls under 40 degrees as snow makes it seem. You just have to use common sense.

It was a weak modoki nino. But not all weak modoki ninos are good. 94-95 was much worse. Weak ninos can sometimes be disrupted by other influences since the enso signal is weak. It happens. Doesn’t mean it wasn’t a nino.

Regarding the nino. They don’t declare until there are 3 months running of nino conditions. But the nino is fading and will likely be back to neutral oni soon. The declaration is mostly retrospective if anything. It’s not useful for predictive purposes. We had a >.5 oni for a while now. The oni is on the way back down now.

Best part is it starts the progression to that around day 10. Not way out at day 15. By day 11 it’s alresdy getting good and that result is pretty inevitable (is day 10/11 is right) Need the eps to get on board. But the gefs is finally progressing the look in time. Eps took a move towards that day 8-10 then regresses. It’s been bad all winter day 11-15 though so maybe it’s gonna lose this one.

Lol If it ejects in weak waves. If it waits too long to eject. If the ridge trough axis shifts further west. If the 50/50 trends weaker or east. Lots of ways. ...but I have a good feeling about this one.

That is the trend worth watching. Getting that east pushes the better waa into our area faster. Less risk of it sliding to our NW. Plus you get that low into eastern TN and there is even a chance it jumps and the whole thing stays under us. Crazier things have happened.

None of it. Icon counts ice as rain not snow. Lol

Fv3 looks good. 850 implies next frame would be snow too. happy hour is back!!!

We fight on twitter

Who cares. He cancelled winter for THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST right before a big chunk from northern MD north was getting a significant snow/ice storm. Then he uncancelled and barked about a storm for DC that is hitting southern VA. And now he is debbing next week? Whatever. I actually like him. Fellow eagles combative arse. But he gets emotional and then goes full tilt and his forecasting gets affected. Right now he is all over the place and needs a vacation or something.

We should talk about talking about it being depressing.

It’s not ok. That’s why they were banned and should have been banned sooner imo. But yea there are still sexist idiots who think pointing out your female in not subtle ways is a legit insult. Just like there are still racists and homophobes. Being a straight white male means I don’t have to deal with any of that and when I get crap it’s isually my own fault and that’s not fair. But it doesn’t mean I don’t see it or that it doesn’t irk me. But I can’t possibly know what it’s like for you. All I can do is say it’s wrong that you have to deal with it and that I support removing that from the board.

Lol it’s ok I am a dick! I am argumentative and a smartass. I’m not actually arrogant. There is still a lot I don’t know and probably never will. But I think my snark and combative argumentative nature comes off that way. But hey I’m an eagles fan from jersey. What do you expect.

Even sees “some” snow after the storm too...

Nuance is not your thing

I think the orientation of the 50/50 trended better also.

Mjo progression would support that.