psuhoffman

You think I don’t see the same guidance fails you do? But it’s still a thread devoted to that discussion. Leaving a medium range specific storm threat discussion in there just to appease an irrational superstition is stupid.

We can never get any trend we need no matter what we need..its unreal actually Lol what about the January storm??? But I’m general your right. But that’s a sign the pattern just isn’t right for a big snow. When it is we get the opposite. How many mediocre looks turned unto snow in 2014 and 2015! A while ago I said without blocking this isn’t going to work. The pacific pattern has shown itself. The Aleutian trough epo ridge we expected had turned into a North Pacific ridge that was locked in. That typically doesn’t change when a feature like that locks in like it had. With that blocking ridge location the trough axis over the conus would be predominantly west of us and without blocking storms would cut. A month later that’s exactly what’s been happening. The blocking has repeatedly failed and so that pattern has stuck. Last week some blocking and a transient 50/59 got us close. In this case a perfectly timed anomalous 50/50 is the only reason we even have any chance. But even with that it’s gonna be a fight to overcome that north pac issue without a legit NAO block. I guess glass half full says at least we have a chance despite a god awful longwave pattern. We can still turn this around if we can get a healthy wave to eject into the TN valley and not split around the high and wash out into the ridge but the fail option is there despite the perfect 50/50 because everything else is wrong.

Stop it. It’s 4 days away...it’s not long range anymore and it was sucking up all the discussion in the LONG RANGE thread. It made no sense to keep it there just because some people hold this stupid superstition. Threads don’t kill snow our climo does!

It’s got no precip up here where the temps hold longer though. Maybe 1”. It’s pretty much a non event. It’s what I kind of feared in this setup. The stj wave splits from the main trough and gets sheared out south. The main energy goes northwest. We end up stuck in between. The reason that’s a risk is the awful se ridge. Really hard to get a wave to amplify east under that. The path of least resistance is way to our west. So if the cold high is there instead of amplifying into it the energy just splits and shears out under us. There is time to reverse this. If the energy ejects more consolidated into the TN valley it could trend back to a thump. The difference between this and that Euro run with 6-12” isn’t that great. We don’t need an amped up wave. Just enough to direct that healthy stj up and into the cold high instead of shearing east under us. It’s far enough out that could still happen. If this was 48 hours away and this trend was happening I’d be sticking a fork in our chances of significant snow.

Remember a few days ago when I teased maestro that the way this fails is it splits and one wave shears out south and the other cuts nw? Its happening !!!!!!!!! Lol

Yay I can lose more trees. Lol yea the gfs evolution is great for Ice I was talking about snow. We need a more consolidated amped wave to get heavy precip in early to get a thump. The weaker split wave idea is better for an ice event. Ice is just frozen rain to me. Only time it’s any good is if it’s on top of a lot of snow and that’s only because it preserves my snow lol.

The temp profile was good leading in. I like that part. But the Gfs is a weak strung out pos wave. Imo temps would be fine if it brought the precip in. The runs that had a good result were crushing us with .5-1” qpf during the morning into afternoon Wednesday. Big difference between that and some piddling .25 qpf crap. Of course it’s warmer. Less dynamic cooling and mixing of the column to overcome warm layers and hold off waa. We need a healthy wave for this to work. Gfs is trending towards a split of energy with one weak wave cutting way up to the lakes and the other shearing out under us. That’s not the progression we want.

Didn’t want to deb up the storm thread so asking this here. Since your kind of already seeing this as a likely crap ending maybe you see what I see. Isn’t this kind of evolving exactly like last week did? From range it looked like it could track under us. There were some big hit looks. Then the primary evolved into a cutter but with the 50/50 we shifted to hope of a front thump. But that slowly degraded to a more climo look. Not saying this ends as bad. North of Baltimore did ok so some small shift and maybe it’s a better result. Just saying this is depressingly similar even with our shift to decreased expectations as the look degraded. And it’s the same general storm track we’ve had since mid January with every major wave. Take away the crazy 50/50 and this would be a big rainstorm. In hindsight what we hoped was a transition ended up being the dominant pattern of the second half of winter.

At least the icon lost the deluge. It’s snow to ice to dryslot nw of 95.

Icon isn’t that good but it did do ok with the temps last week. Kinda laughed when it kept me at freezing the while storm. Well I never got above 32 and several downed trees later I have to admit it got that right.

We ignored the NAM when it had almost no wave today... lol. Here is the rub with the NAM. It often just adds noise (even at short leads) because it’s prone to go off on wild tangents and you never know if it’s picking up on the right idea or not. But when it does have the right idea it often does the best job with the details. Seeing CAD. Getting the details of the thermal profile. Meso scale banding. If it has the right general synoptic setup it often has the best depiction of details. So there are times it scores the coup like Jan 2016 with the heavy snow into NYC or picking up on the waa thump in November this year or seeing the weird inverted trough aided ccb with the January storm. Problem is you can’t tell when it’s scoring the coup or just standing on some soap box spewing crazy talk.

This is where I am. Yea some are annoying but I can easily tune it out. But I don’t want to see the better posters like chill walk away. If that keeps happening this place won’t be as good anymore and the clowns will run the show.

I’m not sure if that feature is being generated by ncep or by each vendor. Typically the snow maps are a feature of each private vendor that uses their own derived method to calculate snow. Typically by using critical thicknesses and temps at key levels. That’s why they sometimes look different on different sites. Some are better than others. Some are better in one situation than others. But the fv3 one is a trainwreck. It’s worse than the gefs which is also flawed and shows anything close to snow as snow at 10-1. Fv3 seems even more liberal. But no matter why generates it we noticed it immediately and said it’s wrong don’t use it yet people keep posting it and referencing it as evidence the fv3 sucks. The fv3 has legit issues but using those maps to blast it is hitting below the belt imo.

Spring skiing in March can be fun though. Was skiing in a t shirt at wildcat 2 years ago. Just don’t wait too long if we get a warm March or the base starts to go. But they can survive a couple weeks of warm before that happens as long as it re-freezes at night. Once the night temps start to stay above freezing with above freezing dee points that’s when it goes fast.

I wasn’t saying the fv3 is good. It seems to have a serious low height bias that leads to over amped solutions and big storms. But people keep using those crazy flawed maps as a pile on type thing. Like hey look the fv3 says 30” of snow in NC. No it doesn’t. The surface temp is 34. The 850 is 40. It’s rain. There is some level at 32 and the flawed algorithm for the map says snow. But that is not what the model shows. It’s bad enough as it is without us piling on using wrong clown maps.

No idea lol. Depends. That have a better shot to stay north of the boundary but in March they can get pretty warm too if the ao/NAO goes positive and the whole conus gets routed.

Maybe. That was what I expected. But it should be showing up by now.

The geps doesn’t get any attention because day 10-15 it scores lower than climo. You are right for our specific location for the last few weeks it’s been the best. It never really went for blocking and so never broke the ridge. But it’s awful in general with atrocious verification scores and so you can’t trust it. Sure it might be right sometimes but there is no way to know when.

Maybe. Eps moves towards the gefs like 3 runs ago but then went right back. Maybe gefs does the same. Won’t change my mind though unless I see the change break inside day 10.

The last 2 weeks or so yes. Back in January before it all went sideways it was showing a pretty good block at range too for a while. I do think the eps stopping a day earlier saved it from as much embarrassment because several times it was developing a NAO ridge and ended right before it got great. Weeklies would show the epic block day 16 on. I’m not disputing the gefs was worse. It was. But the eps was hinting at the same general idea just less extreme. The last 2 weeks the eps kind of cooled to the idea of blocking but the first half of January it was faking us out bad too.

Ironically we might be done with that. Gefs finally caved. Euro had been progressing toward a raging positive NAO. The window for a boundary wave early March might be all we have left to track.

It’s been almost every run. The gefs has had a -NAO day 15-16 pretty much from Xmas on every single run. A few times it faked us out by progressing it to day 11 or so but it always hit the wall there. The eps wasn’t much better. Remember the eps only goes to day 15 so a lot of those runs where it was just starting to develop the -NAO day 15 would have looked like the gefs day 16 and the weeklies confirmed that. But the eps was slightly better and at tones would lose the blocking and push it outside the ensemble range at least. But on the whole if we were grading day 10+ they both got an F but maybe the eps was a less crappy F lol.

Even the crap progression would still create a temporary window around March 1-5 as the trough sliding to our north compresses the flow and creates some confluence to our north and we could get a wave. But it’s not a good blockbuster coastal look. A wave system like March 2015 would be our best bet. And it would be transient and by March 8th winter would be over.

@C.A.P.E. gefs just caved. Oh well we kinda knew in the back of our minds that was coming.

You are always looking for one thing. It’s never one thing. There are a million moving parts to this and they all have to play together in a way that works just right. It’s complicated. And you keep trying to simplify it to one thing that will determine our fate. On that frame the 50/50 is perfect. But what if on future runs the se ridge trends better but the 50/50 shifts east. Could end up even worse. Or the ridge improves but the 50/50 trends even further southwest and squashes the front runner waa wave south of us. Or both of those cooperate but a more consolidated wave bombs in the west and not enough energy ejects to get good waa. Or the high trends weaker. Or the primary gets too strong or hangs on too long. Or an asteroid hits the earth. We can’t just focus on one thing. There are a ton a variables and they all matter and how they interact with each other will determine our fate.